Gustavo Lacerda
@gusl.bsky.social
Berlin. Statistician interested in Social Epistemology, Judgmental Forecasting, Bayesian Cogsci, Education. Lover of languages.
ImmoScout, please be considerate of your non-native speakers. "Bewerben" (apply) and "bewerten" (rate), and try to avoid requesting that apartment-seekers do the latter thing when they've barely had a chance to do the former.
United Healthcare, whose CEO was murdered in December, is being sued by shareholders for not warning them that the company would start following the law now, in a way that would impact their profits. #moloch
We may be about to live in a world where machines are more intelligent than everyone and are scheming to prevent themselves from being shut down (because this is useful towards whatever goals it has). Today we see this happening sometimes. But they may soon be smart enough to hide it from us.
Today I used ChatGPT's o3 to help me interpret a CT scan, and I'm convinced that it gave me better advice than the surgeon who saw me. (1) It explained its reasoning in detail. (2) Unlike the surgeon, it doesn't stand to profit from this. (3) It agreed with my existing opinion.
If I could choose to be born anywhere 100 years earlier, I might choose Austria-Hungary: tons of opportunities to be a language nerd. OTOH they often had a paralyzed parliament over it, just like Belgium + it also fragmented their militaries. Hard problems. How did the Swiss always manage so well?
For all the downsides of fake news, one bright side is that it might be getting easier to de-escalate wars, since leaders can save face without violent retaliation, by claiming victory regardless of the facts.
History sure rhymes. Insightful piece by Jules Evans. HT Oshan.
I don't believe AIs can have first-person experience, and I dislike the fact that many people are starting to take this idea seriously (I'm on Team Save Human Civilization). BUT... if you're going to philosophize about it anyway, please use the right words.
Psychotherapy hacks: * Vigorous aerobic exercise shortly before therapy. Makes it easier to access feelings. * Receiving gentle massage just after session. Makes it easier to go uncomfortable places, knowing that it won't stick. * Trigger exposure while in breathwork-induced groundedness.
I haven't read this yet (I just found out about vit from this post!), but we need more more hard conversations exactly like this.
Craig Johnson@cajohnson-craig.bsky.social · last yr.I wrote a book about this, How to Talk to Your Son about Fascism -- the right-wing offers young men easy and evil answers to complex questions, and gives community. To fight it we need our own answers, and our own appealing communities. www.routledge.com/How-to-Talk-...
It looks like older generations of Americans really cared about privacy. How did people stop caring?
www.theindex.media/elon-musk-is... ‹‹ Musk now operates in a gray zone between public servant and private billionaire, commanding government authority while maintaining his corporate empire.
Elon Musk Is an Existential Threat to Big Tech
Elon Musk’s direct control over the federal payment infrastructure has elevated him from tech billionaire to existential threat, casting a shadow over every major player in Silicon Valley.
theindex.media
This week my total time in Germany passed the 1 year mark (over 3 stays). Berlin life is pretty sweet, except for some minor annoyances (and yes, I'm writing this in February). Ask me anything!
Today Google Drive decided to switch my language to German. I can't say I'm surprised, but I sure would like to understand why services do this without asking first.
Assad's control over Syria is likely ending before next year (40% chance it continues). How do I know? Because Manifold told me so. manifold.markets/SemioticRiva...
Will Assad government forces control the Syrian Presidential Palace in Damascus on January 1st, 2025?
38% chance. Resolves based on a consensus of credible media reporting as to whether government forces under the command of Bashar Al Assad control the presidential palace.. Contested control (i.e. act...
manifold.markets
TIL about Gelephu Mindfulness City in Bhutan. www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g_t... Fascinating initiative in Bhutan, the country known for tracking/prioritizing its GNH (Gross National Happiness), and whose king imposed democracy on his people, many of whom really didn't want that.
This May 10th I saw a bit of aurora near Asheville, but the most interesting thing were the "waterfalls" that seemed to flow down towards the Earth, which I wasn't able to capture with my camera. TIL the waterfalls are named STEVE. www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH7b...
Channeled my anxiety into writing this Manifold question. manifold.markets/GustavoLacer...
Will the CDC or WHO discourage non-essential travel due to H5N1 before March 2025?
50% chance. Many people are concerned about H5N1 a.k.a. bird flu right now, with some claiming that it's only a few mutations away from human-to-human transmission.
manifold.markets
If you had to go through 2020 again, where would you choose to live?
Having criminal immunity be dependent on holding office creates some terrible incentives. We are seeing this today in Israel.
In German, the string that we associate with the major scale CDEFGABC actually refers to the mixolydian scale (i.e. the 7th is flattened). The English "B" is written "H".
Concerned about the chilling effects of this. slate.com/news-and-pol... ‹‹ But as the American Civil Liberties Union put it, “This legislation would have granted the Secretary of Treasury the unilateral power to investigate and effectively shut down any tax-exempt organization—including ...
The House Just Passed a Bill That Would Help Trump Crack Down on His Critics. So Why Did Some Democrats Support It?
The proposed law could all too easily be weaponized.
slate.com
Could the US go the way of Hungary, via an autocratic breakthrough? M. Gessen and Balint Magyar discuss similarities and differences. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/15/o...
Opinion | This Is the Dark, Unspoken Promise of Trump’s Return
Liberal democracy offers moral constraints without problem-solving. Populism offers problem-solving without moral constraints.
nytimes.com
Which body part(s) would you give up in exchange for never again needing to think about insurance, taxes and immigration?
What's the story with Brazilians and Bluesky? I'm from Brazil but connected to zero Brazilians here.
Malaclypse the Fetus@omfproductions.bsky.social · 2y agoPretty sure Brazilsky liked it too. USA users might be catching up to them with the recent Twitter collapse. I find it best just to call my own posts whatever I want... trying to fight skeet is a road to madness... Please, do as you wish, this is a merely a friendly caution.