At 7 PM Central Time tonight (20 Jan), I'll be joining WeatherBrains to talk about the life and legacy of Chuck Doswell. It'll be live on their YouTube channel. www.youtube.com/@WeatherBrains

WeatherBrains

WeatherBrains is the original weather podcast; the first episode "dropped" in January 2006. We haven't missed a week since then! This is the show that unites weather geeks worldwide; we do our best t...

youtube.com

More NWS tornado warning trivia. In Oct 2003, the directive for duration changed from "should be 30 to 60 minutes" to 15 to 45 minutes. Plot shows pdf 4 years before and after official change. Early (late) 70.6% (70.6%) from 30 to 60, 66.9% (62.8%) from 15 to 45.

@jimmyc42.bsky.social and I published a paper looking at NWS tornado warning performance up through 2016. doi.org/10.1175/WAF-.... Probably going to do an update after event data come in. Warnings available, so some trivia. When after the hour are warnings issued (2012-2024)?

Now that 2024 death toll is probably final (54), here's an update to per capita US tornado deaths. Black dots are single year, red is smoother (5-pt running mean of 3-pt median). Log-scale. Large decrease from ~1925-~1995, relatively flat before and after that. Original is now 25 years old.

OKC ends up with 9th warmest December (mean of daily maxes and mins-1890-2024). Station moved from urban location in 1947. Dropped from 37 to 35 from 10 PM to midnight to fall from 8th to 9th. 2021 50.7 1965 48.7 1939 46.3 1946 45.6 1931 45.5 2023 45.4 1933 45.3 2015 45.3 2024 45.2 1896 45.0

The song of my people.

📰Breaking News : the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology is hiring a tenure-track assistant professor in social and/or behavior sciences applied to weather and climate studies! Come work with us! apply.interfolio.com/158935

On the morning of 19 November 1930, a tornado killed 5 students and a teacher at Camel Creek Elementary in Bethany, OK. It's one of two times in Oklahoma history that deaths have happened at schools during the school day. The other was Plaza Creek Elementary in Moore on 20 May 2013.

Oklahoma City (Will Rogers is the official ob site) started the day with 6.89 inches of rain for the month, 4th most for any November (record begins in 1891. Top 3 years 1931 9.63 1899 7.80 1902 7.25 0.17 through 6 AM, bringing the month to 7.06. Line of heavy rain approaching the ob site.

Update on OKC precip for November. As of 7 AM on the 4th, Will Rogers has had 4.83 inches of rain this month, 9th most for any November back through 1891. The top 8: 1931 9.63 1899 7.80 1902 7.25 1895 5.79 1994 5.72 2004 5.66 1964 5.46 1909 5.29

Unofficially, at 6 PM on 3 November, Will Rogers World Airport has recorded 4.22" of rain so far this month, making it the 14th rainiest November at Oklahoma City since records began in 1890.

Poster at #31SLS is down now, but tried to start a discussion about developing an ethical basis for weather forecasting. Old school poster with conference attendees answering questions with sticky notes to get opinions.

Anniversary of a piece I wrote about tornado safety. We still have issues with people giving bad advice that tornadoes aren't survivable if you're not underground. www.livingontherealworld.org/get-as-low-a...

A rose by any other name is out in final form. Fun with 3 elements of the 2x2 table. With Monte Flora and Mike Baldwin. One typo inserted by technical editor. Should a paragraph break before the last two sentences of abstract. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Now online at AMS_AIES, a paper on the variety of names given to the same quantities from the 2x2 table. "A rose by any other name...." doi.org/10.1175/AIES...

A rose by any other name: On basic scores from the 2x2 table and the plethora of names attached to them

Abstract Forecast evaluation metrics have been discovered and rediscovered in a variety of contexts, leading to confusion. We look at measures from the 2x2 contingency table and the history of their d...

doi.org

Today is the 66th anniversary of the Fawbush and Miller tornado forecast for Tinker Air Force Base, often called the first tornado forecast. These are the surface weather maps ~6 hours before (small bottom left hand corner) and ~6 hours after (large map).