@ironeconomist.bsky.social
I am completely erdman pilled on this now. When ever any other commodity goes up: oil, copper etc no one thinks ‘we actually that means the value of copper deposits went up so really we are all richer’. Everyone understands that oil going up makes everyone poorer.
Jim Pickard@pickardje.bsky.social · 6h agoor to put it another way, good news for first time buyers
Well I guess a lot of oil deliveries are about to get cancelled and the spot market is gonna get very tight very fast.
Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 7h agoEast–West Pipeline shut down as a precaution following multiple attacks.
This is the deficit when you are peak of the economic cycle with a giant capex and equity boom inflating the tax take. If you did some kind of ‘across the cycle’ averaging it would be worse.
Sky Marchini@sky.skymarchini.net · 7h ago>~2 trillion dollar annual deficit >GDP of ~$30t >ergo deficit >6.5% of GDP country is fucking cooked, those are nearing greece 2009 numbers
With GDP and employment holding up everywhere I don’t think people have fully internalised that a full hiking cycle is now the base case. BOJ, Fed, BoE snd ECB are all going to do 4-6 hikes unless something changes. There is no tension here when GDP keeps surprising up.
Please help, my beloved rates markets, they are very sick. [for those not following, the markets prices in pretty much an entire extra hike into this incipient hiking cycle yesterday as the Middle East continued to devolve and the ECB hiked its inflation forecasts]
If Houthis have hit the Saudi bypass pipeline and also taken Perim Island then things are about to get a lot worse very quickly for the oil complex.
We need corporate bond ESG ratings to have a new ‘chance of omnicide’ category so companies whose executives think they might end humanity don’t get treated as sustainable investments.
The ways in which this is wrong are instructive - firstly: super markets did actually pass on the savings, their margins continued to be held down by competitive pressures! Secondly: the savings were modest in the short term as the capex cost wasn’t small!
Rob Delaney@robdelaney.bsky.social · 3d agoInitially I was frustrated with the rise of self-checkout but I appreciated how stores passed the savings on to me rather than pocket the money, fire armies of workers & make me do a job I suck at. It’s also why I’m optimistic about AI! I have been kicked in the head by several horses.
Reading various sets of mentions on this marriage discourse and it’s making me realise that people don’t seem to know very much at all about the legal advantages of marriage. For example: spousal privilege. You cannot (barring a few exceptions) be forced to testify against your spouse.
Why to all the Yorkshire cricket players keep getting into fights, I wonder idly, leading through this giant report on regional lead poisoning and …. Wow actually it really might be this.
This is the imperial bridge officer uniform from Star Wars
TrumpReposter@trumpreposter.bsky.social · 5d ago
Man I bet all those arday defenders saying that Cambridge doesn’t have a recruitment problem and hiring and is robust and professional feel stupid now. Another huge grifter discovered! Cambridge’s commitment to torching its reputation is truly unmatched.
Rhys Kaminski-Jones@rhyskamjones.bsky.social · last wk.According to the FT, Orr is acting as a live-in-landlord-cum-cult-leader to Cambridge students including those under his own supervision, whilst receiving formal complaints about his behaviour, and boasting publicly how the university is a recruiting ground for the party he might be doing crime for
This is such a great point I had never thought of it this way.
Tomas Hirst@tomashirstecon.bsky.social · last wk.In a world of scarce capital, your residual return accruing to equity should be low. In a world of abundant capital, the opposite is true. There is a growing tension between what asset classes appear to be pricing, but the second derivative is already telling a story. As is the reliance on debt.
This kind of thing misses the point. We have a housing shortage; therefore land lords have market power because they get to choose between multiple tenants. In such a case surely you will seek the most credit worthy tenants as you don’t want the hassle of non payment.
Olivier Usher@ojusher.com · last wk.Why should tenants need credit checks? Rent is usually paid in advance. They aren’t taking out debt. The one borrowing is usually the landlord, in taking a deposit. Maybe the landlord should be the one being checked?
A thing people have bad intuitions about is how productivity affects taxes and government budgets. If productivity goes up faster in the private sector than government then to keep the same ration of outputs the government needs more workers.
post malone ergo propter malone@proptermalone.bsky.social · 2w ago1) this is good and you should read it (and my prior is that Lowrey's book is also good and you should read it, although i haven't yet) 2) administrative burden is the single place I am most optimistic about positive impact from LLMs
If I wrote yagami he would have righteous pet projects like trying to rationalise the Uk tax code by killing off prime ministers for not acquiescing to the Mirrels review recommendations.
@lastpositivist.bsky.social · 2w agoIn fact my favourite moment is right at the start where Ryuk asks him if he's sure he's doing the right thing and he's like ??? excuse me??? I get straight As and I'm very good at tennis, *of course* I am the righteous god of Justice!! So great.
If you adjust the labour share to account for the investment returns inside worker pension schemes (which is treated as capital income) the aggregate return to labour as a > of gdp in the us is unchanged since 1970 and has been rising for 15 years.
Patrick Fenelon@patrickfenelon.bsky.social · 2w agoThe answer to this is that we want labor to have a much higher percentage of profits than it currently gets.
Honestly I would die of embarrassment if I had resigned over this and then sat in the other side and said ‘ah well actually treasury had a point’. What are we doing here?
Will@will-rich.bsky.social · 2w ago"These are my principles. If you don’t like them I have others" Healey to shelve his own defence spending target of 3% of GDP by 2030 - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
What Jonathan says is correct….but dmitry is closer to being right. Total revenue of the sp500 is currently around 20 trillion. So revenue is before costs, and costs are other firms revenue, so at a ten percent margin each of these companies plans to spend more annually than total sp500 sales.
Jonathan Portes@jdportes.bsky.social · 2w agoFirst 4 words of @explaintrade.com's post are correct. Which explains the rest - he's confusing revenues with value-added. The sum total of revenues in the economy is far larger than GDP! (eg, Tesco sales are £70+bn, direct contribution to GDP closer to £10bn).
Honestly I do quite want an AI best friend but they should be bespectacled and have an unhealthy interest in the unsolved problems from my PhD
Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 2w agoSaw this advert in my Instagram stories. Felt deeply depressed. Now you can be too!
This looks like another massive problem that could easily be solved by the simple expedient of trying a little bit. Don’t even need the post office to do something, cash payments into accounts with this regularity and volume are intrinsically suspicious and should be flagged for review.
Jim Waterson@jim.londoncentric.media · 3w agoHahaha fucking helllllllll just read this. So many thoughts. Like “this is how you actually do money laundering, not on Oxford Street” and “British deference to small businesses being honest and taxpaying is the problem”. (Writes a small business owner.) www.theguardian.com/news/ng-inte...
Can’t possibly put the data centre next to (checks map) Fife Ethylene Plant, in turn next to (checks map) Collier Goathill Quarry, this is pristine unspoiled countryside www.change.org/p/stop-the-p...
Sign the Petition
Stop the proposed AI data centre near Auchtertool, Fife.
change.org
God I see what you have done for others and I want that for me.
Stephen Jacob Smith@stephenjacobsmith.com · 3w ago“After an intense building flurry, Auckland’s housing stock is now 618,849 units, which is 101,000 more than a decade ago…Meanwhile Auckland house prices, with a median value of just over NZ$1mn (US$587,000), have lost a quarter of their value in that timeframe.” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
I want one 🤣. I’m basically one of the Net Zero Dads @duncanrobinson.bsky.social wrote about.
KimBo@zapperfan7.bsky.social · 3w agoA rooftop wind turbine that could change the way we think about home energy Imagine generating electricity from the wind without needing a massive tower, a huge plot of land, or a traditional wind farm. The technology shown here is designed to bring small-scale wind generation directly onto rooftops
Maybe this is an American/british use thing but champagne socialist has two quite specific connotations beyond being well off and a socialist. Either (1) your all talk and no action, contrasted with the beer socialist or (2) you have wildly unrealistic expectations of what socialism looks like.
Jake (Real)@jakemhs.bsky.social · 3w agothe thing about "champagne socialists" is that a lot of us know we were extraordinarily lucky due to the circumstances of our birth and want better lives for everyone as a result, I do not understand how this is supposed to be a gotcha
