I have been missing from here. Is this growing or shrinking? Opinions?

Here is a video of this presentation on Tariffs and the best monetary policy response: www.youtube.com/live/DoFrOjJ...

Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics - Ivan Werning (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

YouTube video by CEPR & VideoVox Economics

youtube.com

Centre for Economic Policy Research@cepr.org · 11mo ago

The Virtual Seminars on Monetary Economics, hosted by CEPR & the San Francisco Fed start this week! Session 1: 4 Sept 17:00 CEST @ivanwerning.bsky.social @mit.edu Topic: Tariffs as Cost-Push Shocks: Implications for Optimal #MonetaryPolicy Sign up: cepr.org/events/event... #EconSky #EconConf

Workshop in International Macro 📣 Call for Papers 📣 Montevideo, Uruguay, Dec 10-11 Keynote: Ricardo Caballero Submit your paper: digitatics.typeform.com/to/rUqHU5hOh...

🚨New paper with Veronica Guerrieri and Guido Lorenzoni Was the recent inflation surge due to a lack of coordination? Can lack of coordination lead to too much inflation? Yes, we show. Especially in response to global supply shocks. link to paper: economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul... 1/n🧵

MIT Economics obituary for the legendary Stan Fischer: t.co/8fgZbnaRCB

What should the Fed do with Trump Tariffs? New paper on 'Monetary Policy in Times of Tariffs' with Guido Lorenzoni & Veronica Guerrieri (link at end) We show simplest most intuitive way to approach tariffs is actually correct: Tariffs = textbook cost-push shock www.nber.org/papers/w33772 🧵1/N

How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits... ... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot. Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit. Economists typically say "not so fast"... 🧵1/n

Analyzing theoretical formula used to determine tariffs… What’s wrong with it? Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not. ustr.gov/issue-areas/...

This was clearly for the better. I have enjoyed his Substack since then.

Paul Krugman@pkrugman.bsky.social · 2y ago

CJR has a fair-minded piece on why I left the Times. All in the past now; I'm basically full-time on Substack www.cjr.org/analysis/pau...

Economics is hard. Even the basics. Exhibit #52783

Trump at it again talking about the virtues of tariffs. Two key papers: Diamond-Mirrlees Atkinson-Stiglitz, establish conditions under which tariffs should not be employed and show the income tax is a great tax. Or read @pkrugman.bsky.social Pop internationalism!

2025 a year of mass deportations and trade wars? I’m not that excited for that.

Has anyone guesstimated Musk’s effect on the election? Sure he went all in. My own guess is near zero. If so we can stop with the “Musk helped Trump get elected but now…”

Argentina, one year into its libertarian presidency Milei is starting to post some good numbers. Fiscal cut of ~5% of GDP. Inflation continues to fall. Structural reforms and deregulations Recession ending. Latest: poverty falls after spike earlier this year.

Ambition.

Ben Golub@bengolub.bsky.social · 2y ago

What is the difference between microeconomic theory and macroeconomic theory?

New Keynesian economics for you.

Tom Sargent honoris causa at di Tella University in Buenos Aires.

Fake Barbara… check the handle

Krugman nails it. I'll add, what does Bessent mean by "money" being fixed, we don't hold money supply fixed as a policy. Maybe he means wages? But why would some home produced goods fall in price if wages do not fall? It's possibly not even consistent.

Paul Krugman@pkrugman.bsky.social · 2y ago

People have been puzzling over Scott Bessent's claim that tariffs can't be inflationary — which is, by the way, completely different from Trump's claim that foreigners will pay. The thing is, there is a kind of model here — one that is clear, consistent, and totally false 1/

Just back from giving a talk to 2nd year students on how to approach research, how to write a paper. Abhijit was coming after me (good thing he didn't go first, tough act to follow!) Here are my slides... www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0pm2m...

Simon Johnson said his daughter asked why he was getting up at 4am and he'd explain he was writing another paper with Daron. Simon was very gracious and told the story of how Daron invited him to join him and Jim on "a paper"...

Ivan Werning@ivanwerning.bsky.social · 2y ago

Bengt Holmstrom recalled he told Daron to drop that political economy stuff and focus a bit more his research. 🧐 🤣

A great party at MIT to not forget… Celebrating Daron Acemoglu and his Nobel award! Happy new in the room was brimming.

Starter pack creators as the new journal editors... 🤣

Men are more competitive and overconfident but this can be to their long term detriment, says great MBA data. Fits my experience! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Overconfidence and Preferences for Competition

We study when preferences for competition are a positive economic trait among high earners and the extent to which this trait can explain the gender gap in income among a master's degree in business ....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

#EconSky 📉📈

Ivan Werning@ivanwerning.bsky.social · 2y ago

On Fiscal Dominance, a classic is Sargent-Wallace "Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" in the QR. 💵 In this QR note I celebrate and revisit it. I show their spectacular example relies on being on the wrong side of a Laffer curve. I offer a variant that strengthens their conclusions. t.co/gGRDafQ01V

On Fiscal Dominance, a classic is Sargent-Wallace "Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" in the QR. 💵 In this QR note I celebrate and revisit it. I show their spectacular example relies on being on the wrong side of a Laffer curve. I offer a variant that strengthens their conclusions. t.co/gGRDafQ01V

Even if you really hate Trump you have to be ready to like some of the things he might do. You may still hate other things and this doesn't have to change your bottom line, but it can help reduce cognitive dissonance. Controversial?

This finally might produce enough outrage from macroeconomists to try out bsky... www.cnbc.com/2024/11/09/e...

'#EndtheFed': Elon Musk endorses plan to let presidents meddle with Federal Reserve after Trump election win

During his first term as president, Donald Trump was not shy about publicly disparaging Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his policy decisions.

cnbc.com

Micro to Macro. Argentina has been a macro mess. Fixing it is a big challenge for any government: stop inflation, deficits, etc. But one of the most impressive things about the new administration in Argentina are the microeconomic reforms: www.ft.com/content/2e65...

The minister taking a chainsaw to Argentina’s statute book

Deregulation tsar Federico Sturzenegger targets country’s entire body of law in bid to create world’s freest economy

ft.com

Whether you're pro- or anti-trump you'd expect a bump up in activity on bsky from those network effects. #EconSky 📉📈