Stephen Miran (2024), one of Trump's econ advisors and tariff advocate, warned us. Unless tariffs come in "coordination" with allies and the Fed, expect "adverse" material consequences. Guess what. There is no coordination. Instead, allies are targetted, and the Fed, bypassed. Result: Turmoil
Trump is talking about a third term. Hmm. What do we know about presidents who defy constitutional term limits in Latin America? The typical path: they become dictators (Chávez, Ortega, Bukele, Fujimori). Another path: bring on the chaos (Zelaya, Morales, Fujimori, Lugo).
And just like that, the U.S. is now on Russia's side.
Firings this past weekend in the United States: Massive enough to weaken govt services but too tiny to make a dent on the the national debt (it's like seeking to pay your mortgage with a bake sale).
All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes Trump has already checked off.
Donald Trump to halt enforcement of law banning bribery of foreign officials. The mafia is now in charge.
In Argentina 2007, there were signs of autocratic populism when the government began to intervene economic agencies to manipulate inflation figures, as cover up. Similar type of autocratic creeping in the US now www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/o...
Opinion | Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Jacob Lew, Janet Yellen: DOGE Is a Threat to U.S. Democracy.
Former Secretaries Rubin, Summers, Geithner, Lew and Yellen argue that DOGE is a threat to America.
nytimes.com
Ecuador elections: Noboa narrowly beats González. 2nd round required. The fact that it was a close win is a perfect illustration of key polarizations in LatAm (emphasis on plural).
The Trump Doctrine: for my trade partners, sanctions. For autocrats, let’s make a deal (no worries, we won’t talk human rights).
I study the rise of autocracy in Ven and Nic. Key reason autocracy went far: bureaucratic capturing. Presidents colonized state agencies. If you were not loyal to the president, as a civil servant you were fired, demoted, defunded. Feels like Trump read my book. www.brookings.edu/books/autocr...
Autocracy Rising
How Nicolás Maduro reinvented authoritarianism for the twenty-first century Venezuela, which once enjoyed periods of democratically elected governments in the latter half of the twentieth century, has...
brookings.edu
www.journalofdemocracy.org/last chance to read Jan 2025 issue for free. Check out my co-authored essay on Ven’s stolen elections
Journal of Democracy
The <em>Journal of Democracy</em> has been a leading voice in the conversation about government by consent and its place in the world.
journalofdemocracy.org
The transfer = one of the most successful stories of decolonization. Transfer prevented Pan from becoming another Cuba, Vietnam, or war-torn country. Pan manages the canal professionally. Result: peace, democracy, prosperity, pro US orientation, and low migration. Win win for both Pan and the US.
Why the U.S. Should Not Take Back the Panama Canal
There were good reasons to return the canal to Panama. Undoing it now would be a geopolitical disaster.
americasquarterly.org
The economy is booming, inflation and unemployment are low, crime rates are declining, we are at peace, he controls congress, and Trump is thinking of declaring a natl emergency and issuing 100 executive orders.
Honestly, this kind of open corruption would be striking even in Latin America. I think Americans are just not used to doing corruption quite like that, so they have no decorum. 1/
David Enrich@davidenrich.bsky.social · 2y agoHoly cow. Executives at CBS’s parent company have discussed settling Trump’s lawsuit against CBS News/60 Minutes, because they need the Trump administration to sign off on a planned corporate merger. www.wsj.com/business/med...
Different institutions + different type of president-party relationship —> different outcomes. www.nytimes.com/2025/01/16/w...
As Trump Heads to White House, Bolsonaro May Be Headed to Jail. Why?
Three reasons help explain why the two politicians have faced such contrasting fates.
nytimes.com
As promised. New article. How do we know Maduro lost the election? The voting system that Chávez put in place and Maduro kept in place actually proved it. With Dorothy Kronick!
Journal of Democracy@jodemocracy.bsky.social · 2y ago🆕 OUT NOW! ❄ Our January 2025 issue is now live! Read it here FREE through the end of the month: muse.jhu.edu/issue/5...
Latino MAGAs, you wanted a tough guy. Look what you are getting.
Foreign Policy@foreignpolicy.com · 2y agoTrump’s team is considering recalibrating U.S. Venezuela policy ahead of both countries’ January 2025 inaugurations, Catherine Osborn reports.
It is amazing how US society is quickly adopting characteristics of societies living under autocrats.
Putin is about to lose Syria. His allies in Gaza, Lebanon, Venezuela are badly wounded. The war in Ukraine is too costly. His only consolation prize in 2024: his candidate won the presidency in the US (though not by much).
Textbook example of backsliding. Backsliding in the 21st c is never an on-off switch. It’s a gradual erosion of checks and balance institutions. Justifiers invoked are also typical: ending waste, needing to prioritize other objectives. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/1...
Mexico shuts watchdog agencies, intensifying fears for its democracy
President Claudia Sheinbaum says the agencies were unnecessary. Critics call their dissolution a power grab by the ruling party.
washingtonpost.com
NAFTA was created in the early 1990s to prevent future populists in Mexico from ever disengaging from sensible economic policies. It has done that. Who knew it would need to be used to contain crazy populists in the US (again).