Jonathan Tonkin
@jdtonkin.bsky.social
Professor of ecology at UCNZ | Using science to anticipate where our living world is headed | Writing Predirections newsletter on biodiversity, climate & water → https://predirections.substack.com | https://tonkinlab.org
19 months ago, one of my students submitted a manuscript for review. It's now in round two, and we’ve still not got the second round reviews back. Nothing about the underlying science has changed in that time. This isn't unusual — peer review is overburdened across the board, and has been for years.
"Flash droughts" are emerging as a new threat under warming. These rapidly occurring dry periods emerge from intense heat and low humidity ➡️ rapidly suck moisture out of the landscape, creating a “hyper-flammable” state ➡️ fire spreads faster, lasts longer and grows larger than other wildfires.
Flash droughts pull ‘alarming’ amounts of moisture from the landscape and intensify wildfires: new research
We have to stop thinking of droughts simply as a static state of low moisture. Rapid drought changes can send fire risk soaring.
theconversation.com
England received only 7% of the long-term average rainfall for July. Southern England, just 1%. Factoid: There has been a weather station in Kew Gardens for 155 years. This July was the first month ever to record 0mm of rain. Tomorrow, London will again hit 30C+ www.theguardian.com/environment/...
July set to be driest on record for England and Wales after relentless heatwaves
Climate scientist urges better planning as southern England had just 1% of long-term average rainfall last month
theguardian.com
Nothing to see here… just a man and his pig out for a stroll on the beach.
#invasivespecies #biodiversity Important paper for NGOs as well, imo. "Using a new global database of standardized impact measures, we calculated average impact severity per country & found that it is higher in the Global South despite more than twice as many reports in the Global North."
Jonathan Tonkin@jdtonkin.bsky.social · 6d agoNew in @science.org from @hannoseebens.bsky.social and colleagues: invasive species impacts are actually more severe in the Global South, not the North — we'd been inferring severity from report counts, which was misleading. I wrote a short summary here: predirections.substack.com/p/invasive-s...
“Hosepipe ban exemptions for golf courses & private school sports pitches symbolise everything wrong with our water system. How can it be right that a private school can use [so much] water to keep the grass green in the middle of the summer holidays, but children cannot play in paddling pools?"
The Guardian@theguardian.com · 5d ago‘It’s alright for them’: private schools and golf courses stay green despite England’s hosepipe bans
Super interesting
Brian J. Enquist@bjenquist.bsky.social · 6d ago“We also propose that the total human population of the area in 100–300 ad was 1.25–3 million people. If similar results are found elsewhere in Amazonia, the …current Amazonian …biodiversity and even some modelling of the global climate should be re-evaluated” 🧪 🌐 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
New in @science.org from @hannoseebens.bsky.social and colleagues: invasive species impacts are actually more severe in the Global South, not the North — we'd been inferring severity from report counts, which was misleading. I wrote a short summary here: predirections.substack.com/p/invasive-s...
New in @science.org from @hannoseebens.bsky.social and colleagues: invasive species impacts are actually more severe in the Global South, not the North — we'd been inferring severity from report counts, which was misleading. I wrote a short summary here: predirections.substack.com/p/invasive-s...
By giving floodwaters somewhere to go, floodplains reduce pressure on the rest of the system. What previously seemed unnecessary is suddenly critical. predirections.substack.com/p/built-to-f...
It's World Nature Conservation Day. Here's a few thoughts why biodiversity is important. predirections.substack.com/p/diversity-...
Diversity is the spice of life
Why it’s so important to prioritise diversity in all its forms for resilient ecosystems
predirections.substack.com
Go help some rivers! They’re worth it — trust me.
American Rivers@americanrivers.bsky.social · last wk.World Nature Conservation Day! 🌿💧With so much going on in the world, it can feel overwhelming to know how to help. We’ve put together 5 simple actions you can take to make a real impact for rivers today: https://www.americanrivers.org/2026/07/5-things-you-can-do-for-world-nature-conservation-day/
🌎🌐🍁 New paper! Our study, led by Dr. Joanna Lumsden-Pinto, shows how forest structure & understory plant communities in Long Island's pine barrens change with time since last fire to help us understand long-term wildfire effects. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... #ForestEcology #FireEcology
This is it! Hopefully some lessons will be learned from these events. In NZ, we still see massive new pine plantations -- even in places that have burned multiple times in recent years (e.g. Christchurch).
juli g pausas@jgpausas.bsky.social · last wk.Forest plantations sustainable under the 20th‑century climate may become unsustainable in the 21st-century climate One of Europe's largest pine plantations (Pinus pinaster) is burning in West Bordeaux ( #Gironda, #Biscarrosse) 🌍🔥🌳🔥🍁 wildfire besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Professional sport gets most of the attention, but there's something wonderful about a city opening its stadium for a local club final and making it free for everyone. A great reminder that community sport still matters. The atmosphere was incredible and it came down to the last few moments.
It’s hard to fathom how much of the world is burning right now. Every wildfire is a reminder that the way we and ecosystems will experience climate change is via extreme events not changes in average conditions.
That’s apocalyptic! We’re seeing too many of these images worldwide. Time for action.
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf@rahmstorf.bsky.social · 2w agoHoliday in the climate emergency. No that’s not AI or edited, just a snapshot I just took with my phone on Lacanau beach in France. What future will this boy grow up in? It is in our hands, but time is running out.
"#resilience requires capacity that appears unnecessary most of the time.# "Built to #flood" by @jdtonkin.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/predirec...
Built to flood
Why the best systems are built to flood
open.substack.com
10 questions I ask myself — some explicit, some implicit. Starting with: is this pattern real, or am I just primed to see it? New post out today 👇
10 questions I ask myself
I don't always have the answers. These are the questions I keep coming back to.
predirections.substack.com
10 questions I ask myself — some explicit, some implicit. Starting with: is this pattern real, or am I just primed to see it? New post out today 👇
10 questions I ask myself
I don't always have the answers. These are the questions I keep coming back to.
predirections.substack.com
How can we explore and rewrite the story of biodiversity's future? Applications now open for the 9th ANdinA workshop, an interdisciplinary "walkshop" in Burren, Ireland (7–11 June 2027). Ecologists, conservation scientists, modellers, social scientists, humanities scholars welcome. andinaburren.com
How can we explore and rewrite the story of biodiversity's future? Applications now open for the 9th ANdinA workshop, an interdisciplinary "walkshop" in Burren, Ireland (7–11 June 2027). Ecologists, conservation scientists, modellers, social scientists, humanities scholars welcome. andinaburren.com
It's cool how @revkin.bsky.social and I converged on the same idea a decade or so apart.
Andy Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ revkin.substack.com@revkin.bsky.social · 2w agoIn 2012 I talked and wrote about the need to meld urgency and patience in pursuing climate progress. Still necessary, as @jdtonkin.bsky.social has been writing on Substack.
So happy with Christchurch's vision!
Arif Hasan, but NFL🔨⚒️🛠️@arif.bsky.social · 2w agothis shot is so bleak lmao
I feel for people across North America dealing with this!
‘Profound, resigned hopelessness’: people across US and Canada share effects of wildfire smoke
Air quality in North America has plummeted, affecting the health of millions of people across the continent
theguardian.com
That might be the most bonkers climate story I’ve ever seen!
Floodplains look like wasted land — until they flood, when they're the only thing standing between manageable and catastrophic. The same pattern shows up in supply chains, grids, and your calendar. I LOVED writing this piece. I hope you enjoy it too. predirections.substack.com/p/built-to-f...
Built to flood
Why the best systems are built to flood
predirections.substack.com
