Excess mortality by region during the heat event of June (weeks 25-27) are now really essentially final (I added Berlin and Hamburg which were missing so far) Worst hit: Île-de-France, Saarland and Rheinland-Pfalz No excess: Schleswig-Holstein and Provence-Alpes Côte-Azur 1/

Just in case "turbo-cancer" is still a thing (it has been a while since I last saw a post), Destatis released death figures by cause up to full year 2025 Here an overview with some trends of annual deaths due to cancer in Germany

Boris Johnson (UK covid inquiry): "I was under the impression that not killing your pop is the primal objective of a gov" Sec Kennedy (yesterday): "Constitutional rights are more important than public health" This shows how base principles not science drive a pandemic response

A quick warning about this RKI chart from its heat mortality surveillance which puts heat deaths at ~9,000 so far in 2026 Per RKI's own recommendation, it is best not to use this as its model is currently significantly underestimating heat mortality (which is closer to 16k) 1/

@insee.fr released France's daily deaths up to 30/6 so I was curious for Paris (one of the regions hardest hit by the heat in Europe) The impact is "beyond": On Friday 26/6, Paris saw more deaths than on any day during pandemic, incl during its huge wave 1

@statistik.at released weekly deaths up to 12/7 which confirms my preliminary estimates (based on retro-engineering weekly deaths from EUROMOMO's z-scores - it's remarkably accurate!) Austria got "severely hit" (I come to 500 excess deaths) but nothing like Belgium, France and Germany

UKHSA released a preliminary assessment of the heat impact on England this morning It estimates the excess at 2,800 for both the May and June event Sparing you the details but this is broadly in line with what I expected (remember, this is for England, I did England and Wales)

Here is my thinking on the Fauci saga a) He doesn't seem to realize that "convinced XYZ to close schools" is a political not a scientific action b) This lack of awareness is probably why he had this extraordinary stupid idea to hold a running agenda on his office PC 1/

With the release by ONS this morning, the death occurrences estimates for England and Wales are now "firm" enough (+/- 100) for an assessment 1) The June wave led to 2,000-2,500 excess deaths with no "negative excess" afterwards, ie these are not only frail people "dying 1-2 weeks earlier" 1/

Germany now starts to release (still preliminary) daily deaths by Federal State for period of the June heat wave I was curious about the Saarland, the worst hit region in western Europe during the heat wave Well, it looks as if a bomb hit it ... 1/

The papers in Belgium relay the fact that "Belgium was the worst hit country during the heat wave in Europe" That's correct but is the result of the fact that all its geography was under the impact If you look by region, you see that parts of Germany and France fared far worse 1/2

The Brussels Times@brusselstimes.com · last wk.

People living in poorer regions were hit hardest by the extreme heat.

@insee.fr released its death data via Eurostat up to 12/7 which also allows a view by age by Region The impact on Paris is truly "beyond"... Look at the 15-44, three events stand out since 2013 - The Terrorist attack of Nov 15 - Wave 1 of covid in Apr 20 - The heat wave of Jun 26 1/

I was able to retro-engineer deaths from EUROMOMO z-scores to remarkable accuracy and get good estimates for Italy and Austria So here is a picture of weekly % excess* in heat weeks by country in Western Europe It shows how much FRA, GER and BEL stand out in June 1/

France released two interesting documents recently - Excess mortality by Département (by Santé Publique France) - Heat Warning by Département (by Météo France) I allowed myself to plot two charts next to each other I know the link ... but it remains striking

@statbel-en.bsky.social released the Belgian death data up to 5/7 and, as in France, the heat wave had a huge effect on the 45-64 age band In fact, this age band saw higher weekly deaths than at any moment of the pandemic (and probably since WWII) A few more comments below 1/

@santepubliquefrance.fr published a very interesting report on the heat mortality during the June heat wave in France 1) Most deaths happened at home 2) All age bands were affected (worst was 45-64!) 3) Excess was focused geographically (where the heat was the most intense)

We start to get some indication of the impact of the June heat wave in England+Wales: ~2,000 up to 3/7 Take this as an order of magnitude: Death occurrences take ages to stabilize in England and Wales and the 2,000 is based on a statistical correction tool so can still be off

Unsurprisingly, Germany also saw excess mortality in the w/e 12/7: The ultra-heat may have been over by 1/7 but Germany continued to see heat wave level temperatures after that Eventually, this heat event will lead to 16-18k deaths, ie a level not far off the mega-event in France in 2003 ...

Here a preliminary (ie qualitative not quantitative) picture on the June heat excess by region It paints a hotspot composed of central-eastern France, the south of Belgium (Wallonia), and central-western Germany with Luxembourg and Grand Est (France) as (low) outliers 1/

Hmm... After Netherlands yesterday, now France seems to hint at a (heat) mortality rebound in the week ending Jul 12, after respite in the week before NB: hint, not clear message as it's based on highly incomplete data It would put the total excess at ~7,500 so far 1/

An update on the heat wave in Germany with estimates for the week ending 5/7 by Federal State Clearly, the impact of the heat wave was not uniform It hit above all the central-western States, ie Saarland (>100% excess...), Rheinland-Pfalz, Hessen, and Nordrhein-Westfalen

Jean Fisch@jeanfisch.bsky.social · 3w ago

Destatis released almost final death data up to 5/7 for Germany (there will be some minor correction upwards from reporting delays for the last days) The heat wave generated ~12,000 excess deaths vs. the ~2,500 daily expected before the heat wave I added some perspective on this below 1/

As England now saw an equally high number of days with max temp >30°C in 2026 as in the historic "hot" year 1976, this may be a good moment to remind everyone that heat waves did also cause spikes of deaths back then #nothingnewunderthesun (bad punt intended)

Destatis released almost final death data up to 5/7 for Germany (there will be some minor correction upwards from reporting delays for the last days) The heat wave generated ~12,000 excess deaths vs. the ~2,500 daily expected before the heat wave I added some perspective on this below 1/

Off-topic quiz for the statistics minded Just heard on BBC breakfast on no-low alcoholic drinks / A poll found that 45% people do "zebra striping" (alternate alc's and nolo's) / No-lo represent 2% of pub sales Q: What is the ratio of dark to white stripes on an English zebra?😀

It doesn't look as if England saw any meaningful excess mortality in 2026w26 It's based on very incomplete registrations but even taking into account past outliers, the excess will not be really big A few thoughts though 1/

And finally, an update on France where @santepubliquefrance.fr updated its data / My estimate of last week is confirmed (ie 5,000) / To this one needs to add another 1,500 in the week ending 5/7 / So the heat wave at the end of June will have lead to approx 6,500 heat deaths in France

Jean Fisch@jeanfisch.bsky.social · last mo.

@santepubliquefrance.fr released its mortality surv update up to 28/6 based on electronic death certificates I developed a while ago a toy tool to deduce all weekly deaths that is "good enough to 3-5%" Ballpark death toll linked to the heat episode end of June will be 5,000 in France

@rivm-nl.bsky.social updated its death mortality today for the Netherlands Plotting their figures into my charts indicates that the heat episode led to 1,000 heat deaths This would be markedly less (pro-rata) than in Belgium, France or Germany

@sciensano.be released an analysis of the heat mortality in Belgium at the end of June It upped its initial estimate of heat deaths to 1,750 (similar to the toll Belgium saw in the Aug 2020 heat wave) I scrapped the death data into my tool: How deaths suddenly spike is simply phenomenal

ADDENDUM: I think this chart with daily deaths during summer from 2000 to 2026 actually shows best how exceptional the heat mortality has been at the end of June 2026 in Germany (thx to @benfire71 over on twitter for asking the question of summer deaths and triggering the idea for the chart)

The German Stats Offfice (Destatis) just released death data up to 28/6 for Germany These are preliminary (and will still increase a bit) but already now a) Germany saw over 7,500 excess deaths in the weeks ending on 21/6 & 28/6 b) Jun 28 saw more deaths than any day the pandemic in Germany 1/