“It seems that (the Government of Alberta’s) sampling method is seriously flawed and could vastly underestimate the percentage of valid signatories.” 🌎 - @jeffski.bsky.social, University of Toronto www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

Questions emerge about statistical sampling used on rejected anti-coal petition | CBC News

A statistics professor raises concerns about Elections Alberta's sampling method used to verify Corb Lund's Water Not Coal petition which was deemed to be under the signature threshold last week.

cbc.ca

Just how lucky was RJ Barrett's winning basketball shot last night? If it had been just 2.1 centimeters CLOSER to the middle of the hoop, then it would have bounced out, and the Raptors would have lost. See my explanation here. probability.ca/jeff/writing...

Fun fact: This international ranking of scholars has ranked me as fifth in the world of all time in terms of "Markov chain" research citations (and 57th in "probability" overall). It's probably a pretty questionable ranking algorithm, but I will take it. scholargps.com/rankings/hig...

macleans.ca/sports/world...

The Blue Jays Lost. So Did I. - Macleans.ca

I confidently declared the Blue Jays the odds-on favourites to win the World Series. It’s been a stressful week.

macleans.ca

After last night's tough loss, my statistical model now gives the #BlueJays a 56.84% chance of prevailing in tonight's seventh game. It'll be tight. Let's go Blue Jays!

With last night's convincing win, my statistical model now gives the #BlueJays an 81.4% chance of winning the World Series. Go Jays Go! :-)

A short fun interview about Blue Jays probabilities I did for QR 770AM Calgary radio on Friday: archive.tveyes.com/18120/455385...

I'm briefly quoted here. www.ctvnews.ca/sports/artic...

Jays vs. Dodgers: What the numbers tell us

The World Series heads to Toronto this week with the Los Angeles Dodgers hoping to repeat as league champions while the Toronto Blue Jays are looking for their first title since 1993.

ctvnews.ca

My simple statistical model currently gives the Blue Jays a 52.46% chance of winning baseball's World Series this year. Go #BlueJays!

I will be performing music and voices this Sunday afternoon in this fun Sherlock Holmes spoof radio play, at the Bata Show Museum in Toronto. Free! All welcome! Come check it out! batashoemuseum.ca/event/sherlo...

Sherlock Holmes Day at the BSM

Step into the world of mystery, deduction, and intrigue, and celebrate the greatest detective in literary history.

batashoemuseum.ca

I’m a statistics professor who became embroiled in the world of online chess drama theconversation.com/im-a-statist...

I’m a statistics professor who became embroiled in the world of online chess drama

When one former world chess champion implied that another was cheating on the online platform Chess.com, a statistician was called in to examine the evidence.

theconversation.com

A #UofT News piece about my recent statistical analysis of an online chess scandal. www.artsci.utoronto.ca/news/statist...

Statistical scientist Jeffrey Rosenthal wades into the chess scandal that’s making headlines

artsci.utoronto.ca

My article about the online chess winning streak controversy is now published in the Harvard Data Science Review. hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/ex6vbavk... @rmcleodb.bsky.social

An Investigation Into Probabilities of Streaks in Online Chess

hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu

I'm in this comedy show tonight in Toronto, performing improv comedy AND musical accompaniment AND storytelling. Come check it out! comedybar.ca/shows/CincoD...

Very interesting stuff!

arxiv math.ST@arxiv-math-st.bsky.social · 2y ago

Gareth O. Roberts, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal Quantifying the Speed-Up from Non-Reversibility in MCMC Tempering Algorithms https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16506

13/ @uoft.bsky.social statistician Jeffrey Rosenthal (@jeffski.bsky.social) has a nice collection of "piems" here: probability.ca/jeff/writing..., while Mike Keith has some amazing (& long!) ones, here: cadaeic.net/cadenza.htm #PiDay #piems

Gareth O. Roberts, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal Quantifying the Speed-Up from Non-Reversibility in MCMC Tempering Algorithms https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16506

Ayup

For Maths fans, 2025 is a square. 45² = 45 x 45 = 2025 Also, 9² x 5² = 2025 40² + 20² + 5² = 2025 My favourite? 1³+2³+3³+4³+5³+6³+7³+8³+9³ = 2025 #Mathematics #teaching #education

Happy Friday the Thirteenth! I was actually BORN on a Friday the Thirteenth. In fact, "Born on Friday the Thirteenth" was my proposed title for my book about luck, eventually called Knock On Wood. Oh, did I mention that it makes a great Christmas present? 🙂 probability.ca/kow/

Exams done. Phew!

One final exam done, one still to go (tomorrow).

NEW: Bluesky has seen massive growth in the weeks following the US election. There are 24 million users on the social media platform. With great engagement comes great responsibility, which means Bluesky CEO @jay.bsky.team has a lot to do. She sat down with WIRED to talk about it.

Bluesky Now Has 24 Million Users. Jay Graber Is Still Vowing to Keep It From Enshittification

At WIRED's The Big Interview event, Bluesky CEO Jay Graber discussed the booming user numbers for the Twitter rival and why giving social media users more control is a recipe for success.

wired.com

Deep thought of the day: If you always expect the worst, then you will never be disappointed.

CAJ Mentorship Program is the best gift you can give yourself, and it's free for CAJ members. 6-week private mentoring by, omg omg: @conniewalker.bsky.social @nickhunebrown.bsky.social @sarahcrgr.bsky.social @adrianklee.bsky.social @shireenahmed.bsky.social MOAR. Apply now: caj.ca/programs/men...

Mentorship - Fall 2024 - Canadian Association of Journalists

Fall 2024 Mentor Bios Below you will find an alphabetic list of mentors for the Fall 2024 round of the mentorship program. Each mentor has their bio, who they are looking to mentor, the languages the...

caj.ca

Is Bluesky the real deal or just more of the same? For the Toronto Star, a dispatch on my first two weeks hanging out in this space. www.thestar.com/news/canada/...

Richie Assaly: I grew up on Twitter. But with a new Trump era on the horizon, I’ve turned to Bluesky. Here’s what I found there

On its surface, the apps almost identical to the old Twitter. But gone, at least for now, is much of the noise — the casual racism, the bullying blue checks,

thestar.com

"My new career is going great! I'm making MILLIONS! Why, just yesterday, I took in 0.00001 million dollars!!"

I performed some music at my department's holiday party today. (With graduate students recruited as my backup singers.) More of my music at: probability.ca/jeff/music/

Just taught my last class of the semester -- phew!

www.cbc.ca/news/politic...