I forgot to update after Hungary, but it's summer break, so.. Here are the championship probabilities right now: Antonelli: 61.9% (+10.2%) Hamilton: 20.3% (-4.1%) Russell: 8.5% (-5.6%) Leclerc: 5.1% (-0.1%) Norris: 2.8% (+1.1%) Verstappen: 1.0% (0.0%) Piastri: 0.4% (-0.9%)

The 2026 World Cup if Infantino had tried to pull this shit before the tournament.

It's looking more and more like F1 will pick between Imola and Portimão to replace Abu Dhabi, if the security situation around the Iran war rules out racing there. If they keep the race in December as the season finale, I think we'll be speaking Portuguese rather than Italian. 1/9 🧵

Antonelli has been noted by the stewards for a potential yellow flag infringement on the final run in Q3.

Some chatter about Herta not getting the super license points he needs in F2. He can easily get those in FP1 runs for Cadillac. And failing that, they can petition the FIA for an exemption, and easily get it. The real obstacle to an F1 seat right now is his performance.

The Antonelli win and Russell DNF in Spa means some big moves in the championship probabilities: Antonelli: 51.7% (+13.2%) Hamilton: 24.4% (-1.4%) Russell: 14.1% (-10.2%) Leclerc: 5.2% (+1.4%) Norris: 1.7% (-1.1%) Piastri: 1.3% (-0.8%) Verstappen: 1.0% (+0.1%)

With the exception of Mercedes and Red Bull, all teammates are racing next to each other.

Want to vaguepost about Formula 1, but don't want to waste time and energy writing it yourself? Well, do I have good news for you: The F1 Vaguepost Generator is here! jeppeolesen.github.io/f1-vaguepost...

Kirsty Coventry should resign. Gianni Infantino should resign. Mohammed Ben Sulayem should resign. Global sports governance needs a complete reset.

Russell on the rise, Antonelli on the decline. Here are the championship probabilities after Silverstone: Antonelli: 38.5% (-9.3%) Hamilton: 25.8% (+5.0%) Russell: 24.3% (+7.3%) Leclerc: 3.8% (+1.4%) Norris: 2.8% (+0.6%) Piastri: 2.1% (-1.7%) Verstappen: 0.9% (-2.0%) 1/2 🧵

Russell snaps back and increases his chances. Here are the updated championship probabilities after Austria: Antonelli: 47.8% (+1.4%) Hamilton: 20.8% (-0.5%) Russell: 17.0% (+5.0%) Piastri: 3.8% (-0.4%) Verstappen: 2.9% (+0.5%) Leclerc: 2.4% (-2.0%) Norris: 2.2% (-1.2%) 1/2 🧵

On the back of 90%+ of the FIA General Assembly voting to end term limits, I've been getting questions on how and why. (Brace yourselves, this is a long one.) The easy answer is money.Let's dive into how the FIA President can quietly funnel money to the people who elect him. 1/16 🧵

90.71% of the FIA members voted for MBS' proposal to end term limits. Fun.

I didn't see that win coming. Mostly because I was busy at Le Mans 😅 But here are the updated champ probabilities: Antonelli: 46.4% (-5.4%) Hamilton: 21.3% (+10.1%) Russell: 12.0% (+2.6%) Leclerc: 4.4% (-2.2%) Piastri: 4.2% (-1.2%) Norris: 3.4% (+0.6%) Verstappen: 2.4% (+0.2%) 1/2 🧵

This is one of the most oldschool media centers I've been in 😅

Bit delayed, because I'm currently in the media center at Le Mans, but don't worry: Here are the predictions after Monaco: Antonelli: 51.8% (+15.4%) Hamilton: 13.2% (+3.1%) Russell: 9.4% (-4.4%) Leclerc: 6.6% (-4.6%) Piastri: 5.4% (-0.5%) Norris: 2.8% (-3.6%) Verstappen: 2.2% (-2.3%) 1/2 🧵

McLaren's 1000th Grands Prix isn't in Monaco 😅 If we go by the official method of counting GPs, McLaren are on 998, and will hit 999 in Monaco. If we bend the rules a little, and count the times they've had a double DNS, their 1000th race was in Canada and Monaco will be the 1001st. 1/3 🧵

Russell's DNF makes a significant dent in the championship probabilities after the race. Probabilities now, with changes since Miami: Antonelli: 40.7% (+13.2%) Russell: 14.7% (-3.2%) Leclerc: 12.7% (+1.1%) Hamilton: 12.1% (+2.6%) Norris: 6.3% (-2.3%) Verstappen: 5.0% (+0.8%) Piastri: 3.9% (-2.8%)

Deploy antenna! (But in reality this is Bearman's front left floor stay detaching from the chassis)

What are y'all doing Aston Martin?

By the time we get to FP2 in Monaco, it'll be 70 days since we had the last FP2. The last time was in Japan on 27 March. Two months and nine days without an FP2.

Last year I ran F1 championship simulations manually with a Python script. This year I built a proper site for it - 10,000 simulations per race, updated automatically after every round. These are the championship probabilities after Miami: 1/2

Could've had a wet race. Twists. Drama. Actual suspense. Instead we got... this.

Stefano Domenicali has been using Fan Voice data as proof that fans are enjoying F1 in 2026. But it's worth understanding what that data actually means. 1/4

It's race week. In ELMS that is. We're going to Paul Ricard this weekend. Weekend ticket including paddock access? €15 Online streaming? Free on FIAWEC+ Superclipping? None. Come join us.

Trying to land sponsors in motorsport is brutal. But if you're looking for an opportunity to get your brand in the top tiers of endurance racing, send me a DM 😅

Interesting point on today's schedule for the Presidency of the Republic of Turkey: 15:00 - Debut of the Formula 1 Türkiye GP

Coming soon maybe? 👀

Following motorsports news this weekend has been disheartening. Reducing Juha Miettinen, who tragically passed away during the Nürburgring 24 Hours qualifiers on Saturday, to "a driver in Max Verstappen's race" in the hunt for clicks is disgraceful. 1/2

Gentle reminder, that even though F1 is on an involuntary break, we're going racing in European Le Mans Series this weekend in Barcelona. It's great racing. It's free to watch online. It's very affordable to get tickets. Come join us. You won't be disappointed.