So the wait is over & the market "happy" (or no too unhappy) abt the Swiss proposal for UBS: - full deduction of subs - DTA/goodwill deduction Will cost approx 25bn$ of addt'l capital requirement BUT Long time frame leaving time for optimization of capital within the group

You've been eagerly waiting for it, holding your breath.... here it, the annual ShitBanksDoIndex Positive trend resuming after the small spike in 2022 (which came from the US)

Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidential election, according to the country’s electoral commission, after a tight run-off vote against pro-EU rival and Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. (FT)

"UAE-Based Suitors May Bid for UniCredit Russia" (Messagero) "UAE-based"

a bald man is sitting at a desk and giving a peace sign .

ALT: a bald man is sitting at a desk and giving a peace sign .

media.tenor.com

Caltagirone will soon become the first human to be regulated under the Financial Conglomerate Directive (2002/87/EC)

Slightly weird statement from Intesa CEO *INTESA CEO: IF UNICREDIT BIDS FOR GENERALI I'D TELL ORCEL STOP

I wonder how much the UBS franchise is worth to Netflix? "A UBS Group AG client, who alleges his wealth adviser had an affair with his wife and tried to help her take control of family funds, can sue the broker but not the Swiss firm, a New York judge ruled." (for 10m$)

You can't make this up *Executive at Collapsed Irish Nationwide Gets Four-Year Ban (BN) So far, nothing special But this is for what he did 20 YEARS AGO (2004-2008). He gets a 4-year ban from the financial industry for making a bank bust in 2010 CBI investigated 15 years !

Insideparadeplatz isn't always correct - so careful - but they just make 2 big claims which directly contradict Julius Baer mgt: - it was a whisteblower who told Finma about the pbms in risk controls - the 130m loss is on just ONE client (management said the opposite on IR call)

A nice read to start your day: Bloomberg's "The Trump Family’s Money-Making Machine" detailing every single deal the Trump family has landed since starting the 2024 Presidential campaign. Which one is your favourite? I have a sweet spot for the Trump Digital Trading Cards

I'm reading the words "debt sustainability" in sell side resarch way too often these days - & no it's not only about the US.

Exports to US broken down by "executive orders buckets"

European bank M&A isn't exactly slowing down KBC GROEP TO BUY 365.bank FOR EUR761M IN CASH

File under the "who would have guessed" folder "Europe on Alert for Cheap Chinese Imports as Trump Tariffs Bite"

Quite the headline we've got here "Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, will not hire more humans for now"

Vulcan Salute Spock GIF

ALT: Vulcan Salute Spock GIF

media.tenor.com

Afaik UBS is the 1st to publish this new template showing benefits of banks internal models & how much the new Basel 4 floor is going to bite. What's fascinating imo is the counterparty credit risk: models are so aggressive that they reduce "risk" by 78%! Archegos anyone?

Summary of the German coalition's economic measures & potential GDP impact, by DB

Germany’s New Government to Use Legacy Bank Levy Funds for SMEs (€2bn) (BN) The key is that the german banking association said it was "appropriate" bc there are lawsuits (including from DB & Unicredit) on the use of those funds after the gvt tried to transfer to Soffin in 2024

China PBOC Asks State Lenders to Cut Dollar Purchases: Reuters (Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank has asked major state-owned banks to reduce US dollar purchases, Reuters reports

One headline for the lovers of doom porn JAAA ETF Daily Outflows $585.2 Million, Most since inception That's the AAA CLO ETF

a man looking out a window with the words do you smell that on the bottom

ALT: a man looking out a window with the words do you smell that on the bottom

media.tenor.com

Bloomberg has some nice charts on the tariffs’ impacts. The first one argues that tariffs on China are coming globally: too many countries will see a spike of imports from China & that's not sustainable.

Remember the name Emily Ley, you might hear it often in the next few weeks (this is a challenge against the Feb & March Chinese EO but I suspect more is coming on the new ones)

Which EU ctry will push to retaliate & which won't? To have a view I looked at banking exposure. The methodology: each country has a tariff intensity based on tariff % * % GDP on US exports, then I looked at SME REA of each bank in each country as proxy for risk. Results below

This is a very intriguing comment from the EBA BSG: are they suggesting that having external staff working on banks' IT systems means that they're selling vulnerability data to hackers ? (Just like burglaries increase when you renovate a house)

Markets are cracking : wild moves in Bund, European banks and X-Over spreads Opportunities ahead of us :-)

*FRANCE'S LE PEN FOUND GUILTY IN CASE OVER MISUSE OF EU FUNDS (suspense on eligibility)

Trump has stolen the spolights, but French politics are still very messy. A lot will happen this week and I think it's very important. But first, two key facts to better understand the stakes. 1/N

EIOPA proposes full deduction of cryptos from (re)insurers's capital, even stablecoins. The rule on stablecoins is currently lookthrough the underlying asset. EU (re)insurers have 650m of crypto

Apollo president says private credit is ‘not a bubble’ (If you have to deny it is....errrrr.) #Timestamp

Turns out bullying works #2 NatWest and Nigel Farage settle ‘debanking’ dispute Agreement brings to an end the politician’s threat of legal action against the lender (FT)