Strengthening MJO moving into phase 6 will keep the West #Pacific tropics very active into at least the third week in August. The MJO will also help to maintain or enhance westerly wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, resulting in #ElNino continuing to strengthen in August.

An area of low pressure along the monsoon trough will lead to widespread rain, some heavy, from #UttarPradesh & northern #MadhyaPradesh to #Odisha, #WestBengal, #Bangladesh & northeast #India over the next few days. The low can bring better rains to #Rajasthan this weekend.

Tropical Storm #Kujira/#Maymay will continue to bring areas of heavy rain & gusty winds to #Luzon in the northern #Philippines into Thursday, local time. The main threat will be flooding & the risk of mudslides.

Heat will continue to wane from west to east across #Europe over the next couple of days, but turning hotter in parts of #Spain Thursday into Saturday. Another round of heat is expected in the southern #UK & #France into central & perhaps eastern Europe next week.

A look at the active #WestPacific with Typhoon #Dolphin south of #Japan, TS #Kujira/#Mamay approaching #Luzon & a new tropical depression near #Wake Island.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continued to fall in July, indicating a robust coupling between the atmosphere and sea-surface temperature anomalies associated with the intensyfing #ElNino.

Westerly wind anomalies in the western & central equatorial #Pacific & very warm subsurface waters lead to strengthening of #ElNino in July. MJO returning to phase 6 will favor more westerlies & a stronger El Nino in August. The thermocline will continue to fall.

A low will bring some rain and mountain snow to central #Chile, including #Santiago, Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain, some heavy, & thunderstorms in northern #Argentina, eastern #Paraguay, #Uruguay & southeast #Brazil later Thursday into Friday.

The current round of heat will wane from northwest to southeast across #Europe over the next few days. Another round of heat is possible across western into central Europe next week. Still no significant drought over the next couple of weeks. Wildfire risk will remain extreme.

Typhoon #Dolphin is passing over #Japan's Iwo Islands & will reach the #Ryukyu Islands around Friday. The high over the Sea of Japan weakens & shifts east which eases the steering flow so Dolphin may not impact eastern #China until early next week.

Another brief surge of heat is possible in the southern #UK and the remainder of #Europe next week.

Main focus of rain this week will be from far northern #Pakistan, #JammuKashmir & #HimachalPradesh to #UttarPradesh & northeast #India as well as southwest India. A drier week overall across the rest of India & remaining drier than normal in southern Pakistan.

Light rain and mountain snow is possible in central #Chile, including #Santiago, late this week. Risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms in northeast #Argentina, #Uruguay and far southeast #Brazil later Thursday into Friday.

A brief shot of heat in southern #England today while heat continue in #France & western #Germany through Tuesday. Hot in northeast #Europe Tuesday & Wednesday, while #Hungary, #Serbia, #Croatia & western #Romania will remain hot through Thursday.

Typhoon #Dolphin will pass over or near #Japan's Iwo Islands Tuesday, local time before crossing the Ryukyu Islands Friday. Dolphin is expected to make landfall in eastern #China this weekend.

The latest surge of heat in #France, the southern #UK, western and central #Europe will continue into Tuesday.

Typhoon #Dolphin will pass near #Japan's Iwo Islands Tuesday, local time, then will cross the #Ryukyu Islands Friday, before striking southeast #China this weekend.

Another surge of heat is likely in #France, western #Germany, #Austria, #Switzerland & #Italy Sunday through Tuesday. Heat eases around midweek then can return the week of 10 August.

Typhoon #Dolphin is moving west-northwest then turns west as ridge builds north of the storm. Dolphin will pass near #Japan's Iwo Islands Mon night or Tues, then Ryukyu Islands late Thurs or Fri, local time. The typhoon will make landfall in southeast #China this weekend.

I was quoted in this article. One of my many interviews this week regarding the extreme weather in Europe this summer. Here’s what supercharged the monster wildfires in Spain and France | grist.org/wildfires/st...

Here's what supercharged the monster wildfires in Spain and France

Last summer brought Europe's most destructive wildfire season on record. This season is on track to break it.

grist.org

The trough east of #Japan is tugging Typhoon #Dolphin northward, but the storm will miss the connection with the trough. Meanwhile, a ridge will build near the #Koreas & Sea of Japan early next week, steering the typhoon westward toward southeast #China next week.

Strengthening MJO pulse moving into phase 6 will keep the West #Pacific tropics active through mid-August.

Heat has eased across #France & #Germany & will ease in northeast #Europe this weekend. Another surge of heat in France & western Germany Sunday into Tuesday, then #Poland by midweek. Yet more heat can overspread Europe the the week of 10 August. No signs of drought relief.

Rain & mountain snow will continue across central & southern #Chile through tonight with additional rain & snow Sunday. Overall a drier week in central Chile next week. Rain, some heavy, is likely in northern #Argentina, #Uruguay, #Paraguay & SE #Brazil later Friday & Saturday.

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Nahel Belgherze (@WxNB_) on X

Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025. This is deeply shocking.

x.com

A depression will continue to produce rain, some heavy, in northwest #Maharashtra, #Gujarat & southwest #MadhyaPradesh through Saturday. Some rain in southern #Rajasthan with a chance for scattered rains in southern #Pakistan, including #Karachi, on Saturday.

Super Typhoon #Dolphin now west of #Wake Island & will track WNW, passing near #Japan's #Iwo Islands Monday night or Tuesday, local time. Dolphin will cross the #Ryukyu Islands around Friday before striking eastern #China this weekend.

Another impact of the severe drought in #Europe.

Storm pushing into southern #Chile will bring some rain & mountain snow to central Chile, including #Santiago, Friday. Addition rain & snow in central Chile Sunday & maybe Wednesday. Heavy rain likely in N #Argentina, #Uruguay, #Paraguay & SE #Brazil Friday & Saturday.