Good morning. Big week ahead in global central banking. The Fed will lift its policy rate by 25 bps, the BoJ will put forward a reluctant hike & the BoE will keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #BoJ #BoE realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Market Minute: Toward synchronized global rate hikes … almost

This week we get the Bank of England, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions that will lead to a further resetting of prices across asset classes.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

Looking forward to appearing in @questCNN tonight at 9:15 PM BST/4:15 PM ET to discuss today’s US CPI and its policy implications for the Federal Reserve with @paulanewtonCNN

US August CPI Diffusion Indices: presented for your perusal. Note that 15.9% of the index is advancing above 4% year-over-year and 63.5% are increasing between 2% and 4%. This is not what disinflation looks like. All Fed decisions are judgement calls. #Econ #EconSky

My note on the US August CPI report. The longer the Fed waits to push inflation back to 2% the more painful it will be for all of us. August inflation data demands rate hikes from the Fed. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/august-infla...

August inflation data demands rate hikes from the Fed

With higher oil and distillate prices set to be passed downstream to consumers, the Federal Reserve his little choice but to raise its policy rate at its next meeting.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

FOMC September Rate Decision: Investors are pricing in a 85.8% probability of a rate hike next week and a 65% chance in December. The probability of a BoJ rate hike next week is 97%. Only the BoE is expected not to join what is increasingly looking like a global synchronized rate hike campaign.

US August CPI : Gasoline prices jumped 3.9%, fuel oil 10.1%, energy commodities 4.2% & energy 2.1% on the month. Taken out to three digits the monthly increase was 0.396% which is a strong 0.4 and the core was up 0.290 a strong 0.3%. #Econ #EconSky #CPI

US August CPI : We are getting a rate hike at the September Fed meeting. This is not what disinflation looks like people. In August inflation up 0.4% and the core 0.3%. On a year ago basis its up 3.4% in the headline and 2.4% in the core. #Econ #EconSky #inflation #cpi

For now demand destruction noted by the @IEA is offsetting reports that the Houthi’s are in control of the Yemen coastline and is part of why oil prices are falling this morning. #Econ #EconSky #Oil Source: IEA www.iea.org/news/global-...

Global coal demand set to increase this year amid Middle East conflict - News - IEA

Global coal demand set to increase this year amid Middle East conflict - News from the International Energy Agency

iea.org

Good afternoon. Today was not a good day. No matter how hard the usual suspects try to spin it rising oil prices & yields are a function of explicit policy decisions. #Econ #EconSky

The Real Economy, rates and global central bank policy: Given the moves in inflation data, oil prices and global central bank rhetoric one can observe a near term test of 5% is in the immediate offing. One would anticipate that if the CPI arrives hot on Friday it will move well past that. #Econ

The ECB lifted its policy rate by 25bps & left the door open to another rate hike later this year. Listening to ECB's Lagarde speak one gets the sense that the war induced energy & commodity shock is driving inflation and rates higher. #Econ #EconSky

US August PPI: when one parses through the data one can feel the pain of down-market consumers, small firms and midsize business. Diesel was up 24.1%, home heating oil & distillates 22.8%, final demand for energy 4.2%, eggs for fresh use 32.2%, grains 4.3%. #Econ #EconSky

US PPI arrives hot at 0.4% and is up 5.4% from one year ago. Upward revisions to both topline and core in July. Core up 0.2% & 4.6%. Ex food, energy and trade up 0.3% and 4.7% y/y. #Econ #EconSky

A good the bond market remains undefeated morning to everyone out there. www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

U.S. Treasury Plans $6 Billion Buyback, Yields Rise

The U.S. Treasury raised the size of its planned buyback operation for Treasurys maturing in 10 to 20 years to $6 billion, triple the typical amount, but not enough to send yields lower.

wsj.com

A look at the 30-year yield this afternoon. Today’s Treasury action might best be described as tilting at windmills. It’s quixotic. Such as it is in the era of populist economics & finance. #Econ #EconSky

US 10 year yield moves have towards 4.85% after US Treasury extended and larger program announced. It would appear that global investors intend to test “the house. #Econ #EconSky

My preview of both inflation reports out this week and why both will support a Fed rate hike. We expect two hot monthly inflation reports driven by higher oil & diesel prices. I think we could get a 0.5% upside surprise in the August CPI. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Market Minute: Inflation data set to support Fed rate hike

Economists expect a 0.4% monthly increase in both top-line PPI and CPI when the data is released this week.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

Good morning. Non-residential investment now comprises 14.3% of the total economy while investment in intellectual property has averaged 9.1% at an average annual rate since early 2020 & equipment is up 10.5% annually. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Market Minute: Nonresidential investments’ rising role in productivity and growth

Total nonresidential investment has grown from an annualized level of $2.7 trillion in 2020’s second quarter to $4.6 trillion this year.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

Wars are expensive, inflationary & tend to permanently alter the status quo in ways the result in a redistribution of power even amidst inconclusive outcomes. My discussion via @CNN. #Econ #EconSky www.cnn.com/2026/09/07/b...

Three ways the Iran war changed the global economy | CNN Business

The effects of the Iran war are obvious to most Americans: Gas prices have been hovering above $4 for weeks, mortgage rates are rising toward 7% and companies are adding shipping surcharges to make up...

cnn.com

Good morning. My discussion via @CNBC @SquawkBoxEurope on interest rates, policy & the Fed this morning. #Econ #EconSky www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

RSM: President Trump's social posts no longer as market moving as in his first term

Joseph Brusuelas, Principal & Chief Economist at RSM, discusses President Trump's recent posts on Truth Social, his calls for lower rates and how they may undermine central bank independence.

cnbc.com

Good evening. Will be on CNBC @SquawkBoxEurope at 9AM BST Monday morning to discuss the day on global economics, finance & business. Nothing beats an evening walk in the City of London. #Econ #EconSky

Following the strong US jobs report a look at overnight index swaps implies a 60% probability of a rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC policy meeting. #Econ #EconSky #Fed

My instant reaction on air this morning to the strong US jobs report. A rate is growing more likely by the day. #Econ #EconSky finance.yahoo.com/video/impres...

The impressive August jobs report is 'not conducive' to an interest rate hold from the Fed

The US labor market grew by 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in the month of August, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — far outpacing economists' forecast of 55,000. Morning Brief hos...

finance.yahoo.com

This is why central bank independence is absolutely critical. Will Kevin Warsh push back at a time when rate hikes look necessary to address persistent inflation? Price stability is a pre condition of full employment, productivity and strong growth. #Econ #EconSky www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/t...

Trump tells Fed to slash rates or he'll end trade with countries with U.S. surpluses

President Donald Trump demanded that the Fed slash interest rates or else he will cut off trade with countries with which the U.S. maintains trade deficits.

cnbc.com

Robust hiring increase of 162K in August. Once one adjusts for the 2-month upward revision it’s a net change in total employment of 217K. Unemployment at 4.1% and a 3.1% increase in wages y/y.

One reason why long term bond yields are likely to continue rising is decline in demand from rate insensitive purchasers of US debt like foreign sovereign wealth funds, governments & central banks. This is a function of unsustainable American fiscal policy.

Good morning. Retail diesel prices posted a fresh record high overnight which will translate into higher prices in general & rising food prices in particular. I expect an increase of 25K and a 4.1% unemployment rate in the US August jobs report. #Econ #EconSky

My discussion if zero job growth, the unemployment rate and the economy via Marketplace. #Econ #EconSky www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...

Can zero job growth really be a sign of a healthy labor market?

Economists say job creation in only the tens of thousands per month is enough to maintain stable, low unemployment. But there are other consequences.

marketplace.org

Good morning. I am forecasting an increase of 25K in the US August jobs report. The unemployment should remain unchanged at 4.1% & average hourly earnings should increase 0.3% which translates to a 3.1% year ago pace. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Market Minute: August U.S. jobs report preview

We are forecasting a 25,000-job increase and a 4.1% unemployment rate when the August jobs data is released on Friday.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

My appearance this morning on Good Morning America to discuss the recent increase in interest rates and it’s implications for the American consumer #Econ #EconSky www.facebook.com/share/v/1MdH...