Jumping on the OTC YouTube with Kerty and Ktrull tonight at 9PM ET if you’re so inclined www.youtube.com/live/EMW5tl7...

OTC Discord Mailbag w/Ktrull & Jon

YouTube video by OTC Fantasy

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Is Ben Johnson is right about completion % and win correlation? Completion % is #2. Weaker than TD rate, but points mean wins. So not shocking, but Ben’s onto something. Sack rate correlates about as strongly as turnover rate. Getting sacked is roughly as bad for wins as throwing picks. 1/2

Following up on UDFAs and how they perform after rookie year. Only 37 of 990 UDFAs reached ≥200 career opportunities. RBs dominate this group: 21 of 37 successful UDFAs are running backs. WRs account for 13. Only 3 TEs including Taysom. Focusing on the top group only and career trajectory. 1/2

Another piece up on OTC Primer on league format impact give depth and number of teams. otcffb.com/content/dyna...

Size Does Matter

Crash course on the differences caused by variations in league size and roster depth

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I’m looking for a replacement in Super League. Need someone quick as they’ve already autodrafted in the first round. Respond here if you are interested or tag a friend you think would love to join!

#SLFF4 Pick Thread 1.11 Trey McBride

Arizona Cardinals Trey Mcbride

ALT: Arizona Cardinals Trey Mcbride

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Just over 4hrs to go til #SLFF4 Follow along on superleagueff.org/draft-tool.h... Consider donating dd.extra-life.org/teams/slff

990 undrafted skill players (503 WR, 243 RB, 244 TE) entered the league 2016-2025. Opportunities (rush+targets) were minimal. WR: 100+: 0 50-99: 4 0-49: 499 RB: 100+: 6 50-99: 13 0-49: 224 TE: 30+: 0 0-29: 244 RBs continue to get the most chances, followed by WR. Ignore UDFA TE rookies. 1/4

Some teams seem to slow-roll the rookies while others throw them into the fire right away. Got a question from @badm00nrising.bsky.social that made me dig into it a bit. Long-ish thread... Starting by looking at the average usages by round and position. RBs get the most opp. (rush+targets) 1/13

How sensitive to different coverages are QBs? Dataset: * 55 QBs qualified (≥400 attempts, ≥3 coverage types) across 2022-2025 * Against Cover 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and Man The most consistent: Joe Burrow: +0.065 (Δ vs) Mac Jones: +0.119 Bo Nix: +0.138 Marcus Mariota: +0.162 Brock Purdy: +0.173 1/4

Jeremy could use a few more folks for AMAugust

Jeremy - r/fantasyfootball mod@redditffmod.bsky.social · 2w ago

AMAnnouncement #5 I've opened up additional time slots for AMAugust. Currently have 4 available during the week leading up to Labor Day. High traffic week ahead of biggest draft weekend. Hosts must be a FantasyPros-tracked analyst or associated with a credible fantasy site.

Just a bit of narrative validation investigation. Rushing QBs effect on primary RBs. 2016-2025 Qualifying QBs as those with 5+ rushing attempts per game. 56 RBs w/ mobile QBs vs 262 w/ pocket passers 323 team-seasons Most years show a bump in efficiency, but a loss in volume and receiving. 1/3

Everyone’s favorite topic… OL Continuity! Consistent doesn’t mean good though. Jets had a ton of continuity and weren’t good. Green Bay used 12 different combos, 2nd-most in the NFL, but still had a top-3 EPA/play (0.106). Bills got the continuity and the production. Cleveland had neither. 1/3

Right on the heels of the pod and talking dynasty bestball, is a fresh new article too. otcffb.com/content/dyna...

Rebuilding In Dynasty Bestball

Tearing it down without blowing it up

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Dropped in on the Future 1st Pod again to talk Dynasty Bestball and RBs. podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/f...

#SFB16 Pick Thread Starting it off with Trey McBride

Arizona Cardinals Trey Mcbride

ALT: Arizona Cardinals Trey Mcbride

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Getting better is a good thing. Above the diagonal is signal of that happening. This is first vs last season from 2021-2025 I’ll give Mike Evans a pass due to injury in 2025, I’ll get to that later. Shaheed also suffered, but chalk that up to switching teams. I’m expecting a 2026 rebound. 1/3

2025 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity Starting with WR Boutte led the way, but is buried on the depth chart. Up next another guy on limited routes. Christian Watson could be really good if he stays healthy at 2.364 fantasy points per opp. Pierce and Coker are in interesting company... 1/3

Tale of the tape between Loveland and Warren. Loveland’s slow start and missed time, volume goes Warren, but most of the rest goes Loveland. If you split Warren’s year into weeks 1-7 vs the rest though, it gets a lot closer, with Warren leading in some categories. Which Warren do we get in 2026?

New to Dynasty Bestball or looking for an overview? Let me help you. otcffb.com/content/dyna...

Pillars Of Dynasty Bestball

Everything you need to know to get started

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How much impact do position groupings have at the goal line? Across 2022-2025 10,299 offensive plays after filtering out FG/XP/no-play League TD rate: 29.2% Teams had highest TD rate when going with heavier packages. Having a single WR on the field, dropped the TD rate ~10 percentage points. 1/3

Wrote a little something, digging into the Irving vs Gainwell breakdown. otcffb.com/content/dyna...

Choose Your Fighter: Bucky Irving vs Kenneth Gainwell

J drills into the stats and finds the Tampa RB to roster

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2025 JAX WRs Breakdown The offense changed dramatically throughout the year. Here's how usage shifted across 4 phases. BTJ: 14 games (missed Wk 8, 11–12 ankle) Meyers: 9 games (JAX only, Wk 10–18) P. Washington: 15 games (full season) Hunter: 7 games (missed Wk 8–18 knee) 1/4

Took a look at Play Action / Motion / Shotgun effects. For the sake of relevance and shifting league tendencies I used 2022-2025 regular season qb plays. 85,701 pass plays 3,699 qb rush plays Details in thread 🧵 1/4

# Downs '21-25 3rd Most: CLE (1,295), NYG (1,288), LAC (1,278), HOU (1,267), TB (1,263) Least: SF (1,092), SEA (1,115), GB (1,124), MIA (1,129), BAL (1,131) 17% gap 4th Most: CLE (757), NYG (737), NYJ (732), CAR (728), HOU (725) Least: BUF (520), SF (528), KC (537), GB (583), LA (594) 39% gap 1/2

Lots of #SFB16 talk, but I just joined the Nightwing division of Super League #SLFF4 Will be fun joining @ffnatejahnke.bsky.social @koopatroopa8.bsky.social @rmsummerlin.bsky.social and more Only 1 bench spot, so roster management is key More openings if you're interested www.superleagueff.org

#SFB16 How repeatable are the big plays/games? 100+ yd game (r=0.635) 10 straight years of YoY correlation above 0.58. This means if a player had a 100+ yd game in 2025, there's a great chance he does it in 2026. 20+ yd rec's (r=0.505) 300+ yd passing (r=0.449) Don't build around the rest. 1/4

Be careful you don't get caught in a variance loop chasing WRS in #SFB16 this year. Here are the guys (not in any order) I'd target at ADP who lean into the settings and clear the bars of predictive success. Honorable mention to Christian Watson and Jameson Williams (h/t to @jonleonard.bsky.social)