Jure Atanackov

@jureatanackov.bsky.social

Storm chasing & weather photography on the sunny side of the Alps. Meteors, meteor showers & meteorites. Active tectonics and earthquake hazard. Views my own.

BOOM! Extremely long-duration M3.6 flare from active region 3998! X-ray flux was above M1.0 threshold for 1h20min! EUV (131A) imagery suggests a CME was launched, coronal dimming was evident, awaiting coronagraph imagery.

Why some big mid latitude aurora displays are purple and others red. In auroras close to the summer solstice oxygen reds mixing with nitrogen blues and violets, producing purple aurora. In auroras near winter solstice, the display is in Earth's shadow - no nitrogen blues, therefore no purples.

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Two very impulsive M-class flares (M3.3 and M1.4) today from the very rapidly developing active region 4000. They were superimposed on a very long (6 hours and ongoing) surge in X-ray background flux, peaking near C7 and now at C4 level. More shortly!

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We who are stranded at central to low mid-latitudes know something special is going on when at 45° MLAT you begin to see distinct greens. This is the quiescent stage between the 1st & 2nd substorm of the 10-11 May 2024 G5 storm. Minutes before the sky absolutely erupted in shadow-casting aurora.

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Fun fact: despite being a pretty exciting year aurora-wise, 2024 got off to a far slower start than 2025. Even if 2025 feels slow so far, and it does to me. In 2024 we got our first geomagnetic storm on March 8th. We have already had 4 in 2025 so far. Fingers crossed 2025 is even wilder than 2024.

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Heads up Europe & North America! The high speed solar wind stream from the coronal hole is here, Bz is favourably negative & we are at G1 storm level. Bad news: the Moon is nearly full. Still, high and upper mid latitudes may see some good aurora activity tonight!

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The sunspot number is now dropping as the large complex of active regions, including 3981, slowly rotates behind the W limb. There are some active regions in the E half of the visible disk, but mostly simple with few spots. Magnetic loops over the E limb indicate new incoming active regions.

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Seems active region 3981 did the SC25 thing - it took a nap while on the central meridian and woke up a few days later. Numerous M-class flares over the past 24 hrs: M2.3, M1.6, M3.2 and M7.5. No significant CMEs from these flares, although the M7.5 possibly produced a very faint partial halo CME.

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Meanwhile there was also a pretty impressive filament eruption (early in the day). The eruption and consequent CME were directed to the SW, well away from us. Just SC25 things. But it did look spectacular!

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Active region 3981 has retained the three magnetic deltas over the past 12-18 hours, but has only produced a single M-class flare (M2.7). This is slowly turning into a SC25 classic - active east of the central meridian (CM), takes a nap while crossing the CM, wakes up later (?).

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Active region 3981 over the past 24 hours: overall the region remains mostly unchanged, the intermediate and trailing parts are complex with multiple (3) magnetic deltas, there is potential for further flares. SWPC estimates a 20% chance for an X-class flare today.