Our recent paper has been published in @intlinteractions.bsky.social Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers This paper documents our contribution to the GFFO / VIEWS Prediction Challenge on forecasting organized violence.

🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science. Here’s what we found 👇

Happy to share that my new paper is out in @conflictmanagement.bsky.social I compare several NLP approaches for conflict prediction: • conflict dictionaries • sentiment dictionaries • word scaling • dynamic topic models • specialized transformer models

🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. 🧵👇

Happy Day! More excited than I expected about reaching 100 citations in Google Scholar! Immensely grateful to my amazing co-authors who made it possible to reach this (mini) milestone!

The article introducing the 2023/24 @viewsforecasting.org challenge just got published open access. This was a lot of fun to contribute to. doi.org/10.1177/0022...

The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty - Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed...

Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war...

doi.org

Currently in FirstView: “Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations” by @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, Paul Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. The authors propose the Signed Exponential Random Graph Model (SERGM).

Our first meta paper is out!! This paper combines our first 110 completed reproductions/replications. This is joint work with 350+ amazing coauthors. We summarize our findings below: econpapers.repec.org/paper/zbwi4r...

Our Political Analysis article got an issue number and is now fully officially published. :) Check it out here www.cambridge.org/core/journal... also check out the neat web-app we built to play around with it. kfeapps-conflict-intensity-streamlitapp-auon5d.streamlit.app