Hilarious Pulse photo of Tas Labor leader Josh Willie doing a presser restating Labor's support for keeping greyhound racing in front of ... #politas
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham.bsky.social
Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.
A few accounts in the other place have drawn attention to the latest One Nation stuffup in which Western Metro candidate Fiona Lopez is quoted saying this. 457 visas ceased in 2018. #springst
Party registration news Vic (state) - those involved say the Smit/Yemini "Free Palestine" and "Climate Action Now" fake name parties are as good as registered but "I'm Voting To Avoid The Fine" is seeking another 200 members, presumably had a lot of duplicates. #springst
Hepburn Shire Councillors to be reinstated after private prosecution charges dropped. Charges laid by private resident David Penman against five councillors and a CEO have been dropped after the Director of Public Prosecutions intervened in court. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08... #springst #auslaw
Councillors to be reinstated after private prosecution charges dropped
Charges laid by a private resident against five central Victorian councillors and a CEO have been dropped after the Director of Public Prosecutions intervened in court.
abc.net.au
I'm on at #JSCEM from about 2:15-3, audio via APH YouTube channel.
Well this is farcical even by AFR standards - it seems the respondent 2PP on the Vic Redbridge/Accent *was* actually 57-43 to L-NP (confirmed by Accent) and they've "corrected" the text to match the incorrect graphic rather than checking the poll report? #springst
Some curious comments by Hastie here; there are seats where preference flows off One Nation may be critical but Canning isn't one of them. At the moment it would be him vs them head to head that decided it. archive.md/XZzYN
archive.md
The Age on Warren Pickering, a lot of Malcolm Roberts areas here. #springst archive.md/T64RX
archive.md
Party registration news (Vic state): the former Pauline Hanson's One Nation is now One Nation Victoria and the former "New Democrats" are now the ludicrous "Put Australia First, Save the Environment" #springst
Party registration news: as foreshadowed the Australian Citizens Party (nee Citizens Electoral Council) has applied to change its name to Australian People's Party in line with the expected merger with Gerard Rennick People First.
The full Victorian poll details published by #Freshwater on their website show that they've been asking several other questions before voting intention. #springst
Possible sequel to yesterday's announcement chaos: Gippsland Times has announced that Greg Hansford (ON Gippsland federal 2022-5, Freedom Party E Vic 2022) is the lead ON candidate for Eastern Victoria. I've seen no other confirmation at this stage #springst
#Freshwater Vic (state) ALP 25 L-NP 30 ON 22 Grn 14 Ind/other 9 2PP by unstated method 52-48 to L-NP My estimate 53.2 to L-NP L-NP would most likely win (on my estimate), majority would be touch and go. www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victori... archive.md/PtDA1 #springst
heraldsun.com.au
#RedbridgeAccent Vic (state) immediately post Premier change L-NP 30 ALP 23 ON 22 Grn 14 Ind/other 11 Their 2PP (presumably respondent prefs) 53-47 to L-NP My estimate 53.8-46.2 to L-NP L-NP would win, probably in majority #springst
Interesting video of ON candidate for S Metro (possibly their weakest upper house seat) in 2020. What odds would one have put watching this then on "this person runs for One Nation in six years"? #springst www.facebook.com/reel/6111886...
facebook.com
Some people complain about Morgan not getting more media coverage, here's some but #thisisnotpollreporting . It's barely even clickbait. archive.md/JJhxF
archive.md
#Morgan ALP 27.5 L-NP 23.5 ON 24 Grn 15 (!?) Ind/other 10 2PP respondent prefs 52 (-2) to ALP vs L-NP last election 52.5 (=) my conversion 52.4 (-.1) ALP 54 vs ON respondent prefs (+0.5) my conversion 53.2 (+.8) www.roymorgan.com/findings/102...
ALP maintains election-winning lead ahead of both One Nation and L-NP Coalition in early August - Roy Morgan Research
roymorgan.com
#RedbridgeAccent ALP 29 L-NP 22 ON 31 Grn 10 others 8 2PP respondent 52-48 to L-NP vs ALP (ALP -6) last election 50-50 (ALP -5) my conversion 50.2 to ALP (-4.6) ALP vs ON respondent 53 (-3) to ALP my conversion ALP trails 48.6-51.4 (-4.1) archive.md/DLCsw
archive.md
Party registration news (Vic): Australian Citizens Party (Victoria Division) registration has been approved so they are now free to clutter a ballot near you at this year's election #springst
Article claims Daniel Andrews was Allan's "equally loathed predecessor". Andrews' ratings at all stages of his career were way better than Allan's were for at least the last 16 months. archive.md/MM81y
archive.md
Actually provided Group Ticket Voting is abolished as is underway the number of parties in the upper house will almost certainly fall. Treating the Coalition as two parties, there were 11 elected in 2018 and 10 in 2022. It could easily be just 5 or 6 this year. #springst
Interesting, why is a Vic ALP Senator appearing jointly with a Tas Greens Senator at a JSCEM hearing in Hobart?
#auspol #JSCEM hearing schedule for Hobart on Wed released. Two senators, [insert self-deprecating remark], three members of UTAS' Tasmanian Policy Exchange including a former Clarence mayor, and @kevinbonham.bsky.social. Just ignore the guy in slot 2, not important at all.
Gosling case: "The court heard new details of the alleged assaults, which it is claimed occurred about 30 minutes apart and allegedly included a hip and shoulder charge and an elbow to the torso." www.ntnews.com.au/truecrimeaus... ($)
ntnews.com.au
While we've had our eyes on Victoria this week, #nswpol has been doing its usual thing ... ICAC ... archive.md/ARpVu
archive.md
Went to the redistribution in-person hearing today, there were very few speakers given the level of submissions in last round. They had yellow and red cards for speaking time! #politas
Bernie Finn not contesting this year's Victorian election, so some voters may have to think harder now about who to put last. #springst
One Nation assembling in strength in their strongest vote getting areas again I see.
Lily D'Ambrosio not recontesting. Vacancy of 24 year (!) incumbent in Mill Park (ALP 11.6%, possible ON target) #springst