The belief that Putin has unlimited time — to take the Donbas, to carve off from Ukraine whatever he likes — is wrong. That time is visibly running out. And the belief inside Russia that everything can continue this way for a long time is a mistake.

Marx called religion the opium of the people. After 33 years of leading the Russian communists, Gennady Andreyevich has decided to try the product.

Russia's Economy Ministry has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.4%. In July, gasoline production covered only around 65% of seasonal demand. Putin is fighting this war on reserves — and they are running out. Learn more: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/putin-thin...

Putin Thinks Time Is on His Side. It Isn’t.

Sanctions alone will not end the war in Ukraine. But Russia is consuming its reserves and human capital just as Europe’s military industry begins to accelerate.

blog.khodorkovsky.com

Stop expecting Washington's tariffs to end the war in Ukraine. Western leaders must face reality: only sustained European defense production and direct military aid to Kyiv will force Putin to stop. (Read on — 🧵 1/15)

Putin’s words here are a chilling confession of his fear of peace. Without the distraction of war, he knows society will finally wake up and ask exactly what he has done to their country.

Ukraine is no Singapore. Its governance has real problems. But compare how each side of this war manages a crisis, and the conclusion is unavoidable: Ukraine's state outperforms Putin's by a mile. That's what skeptics of Kyiv, Putin sympathizers should be reflecting on.

August is coming. In Russia, August has a reputation: coups, defaults, catastrophes. This year the regime enters it with a fuel crisis, a stalling front, and "elections" (special electoral operation) it fears. Keep your eyes on Moscow.

For two decades Kremlin propaganda made Crimea sacred. Now Russians watch it become a war zone they can't visit, with problems they'd rather not see. The regime's greatest propaganda victory is turning into its most visible failure.

Speaking openly to Putin cost me 10 years in prison. Real dissent costs a Russian businessman his freedom or his fortune. Melnichenko still has both. So what did The Economist actually publish? Join today's NEST briefing to find out: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

As the fuel crisis hits 35% of the population and Putin's approval ratings drop, some drivers are abandoning traditional solutions

Russian men dying young is not new. They've been dying from drinking, neglect, broken health system. Male life expectancy only crawled back to 66 by 2019. Then Putin marched the survivors to the front (🧵1/7)

From dissecting "Balkan fashion" to Macron's sunglasses. This is a good example of how Kremlin spins tiny details to build a completely alternate reality.

The face of a man who can't use his Black Sea palace in peak season

The chronicles of Putin's energy crisis: the Kursk Oblast governor is now urging officials to conserve fuel by moving meetings online

The Vologda region governor now says his government car ran out of gasoline, leaving him to bum a ride from a stranger to get to work. It happened just an hour after he told residents there was no reason to stock up on fuel.

"You're not going anywhere! Let them out!". In the Urals, mothers physically tried to stop their sons from being sent back to the war with Ukraine. 🧵(Read on — 1/4)

Daniil Mukhametov, 21, jumped from a moving train to avoid fighting Putin's war. Lithuanian helicopters searched for him — and, fearing deportation, he crossed into Finland. Finland declined his asylum request.

“They’ve lost their fear.” A spy who inspired “The Americans” uses “Putin’s Davos” to suggest blowing up LNG tankers bound for Europe. (🧵Here’s what else he said)

A Kremlin contractor faked a story about Zelensky buying a Dubai apartment for his mom, then wrote a report bragging it reached 86 million views. I translated that report. It's in a new section of leaked Kremlin primary sources on my Substack - follow for free: blog.khodorkovsky.com/s/primary-so...

Primary Sources | How to Slay a Dragon | Mikhail Khodorkovsky | Substack

Leaked original documents from the machinery of the Putin regime: strategy decks, memos, influence-operation files, translated to English and annotated. Click to read How to Slay a Dragon, by Mikhail ...

blog.khodorkovsky.com

"We're talking about purely economic matters" quickly turned into "You should let us replace you with a Russian citizen." Putin's got ants in his pants as his meddling in Armenia's elections fails — here's how it's playing out: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/filling-th...

The Kremlin's preferred candidate for Armenian prime minister (elections are on June 7th) has "IC 1706 FSB" listed as his workplace in Russian passport records — designation typically used for informants and foreigners operating under FSB supervision: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/filling-th...

The Kremlin has a plan for the Armenian NGOs left stranded after USAID's collapse: take them over. Leaked documents obtained by the Dossier Center show it's just one piece of Moscow's effort to derail Armenia's pivot to the West: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/filling-th...

Filling the Vacuum Post-USAID: Moscow's Plan for Armenia, Leaked

Inside the Kremlin's failed operation to stop West-oriented Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan before the upcoming general elections in June.

blog.khodorkovsky.com

The West imagines two Russias: Putin's, and the one that goes along with him. There's a third — millions in exile, and millions inside who can't speak. We're the only Russia the West can work with after Putin is gone. Here's what I think out platform should be: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/the-russia...

The Russia the Kremlin Doesn't Want You to See

What Russia's democratic opposition still has to build before the day after Putin.

blog.khodorkovsky.com

Everyone complains the Russian opposition is fractured. I think the opposite: we are not divided enough. 🧵[1/4]

Putin has chosen Britain as his number one enemy. His agents are already inside the UK, preparing to strike. 🧵Here are the three tools the Kremlin will use — and why he won't stop. [1/13]

Remember Putin's approval hitting a wartime low? The state pollster has changed its methodology. No more phone calls: staff show up at your door and ask, in person, whether you support the president — number rose the same week!

Alexander Okunev set himself on fire at a Soviet WWII memorial in Kaliningrad on the third anniversary of Putin's invasion of Ukraine. In his suicide note, he wrote that he knew no one would ever hear about him. 🧵He was almost right [1/15]

Who are three Substack writers on Russia, Ukraine, geopolitics you read — what makes them worth your time?

The Kremlin filmed Putin greeting a "random passerby". Turns out, the man works for the firm managing Putin's villas and the property of Alina Kabaeva's mother (the gymnast reported as his partner). Knowing Putin, even planted strangers don't shock anymore.

I have listened to Putin speak for over twenty years. Last week, he did something I have not seen since the full-scale war began: he called Zelenskyy 'господин Зеленский.' Mr. Zelenskyy. That single word is why a negotiated peace now feels within reach (🧵 Read on)