Kingston Reif
@kingstonareif.bsky.social
Senior International/Defense researcher at the RAND Corporation. Former DASD for Threat Reduction and Arms Control + Arms Control Association. Wisconsin sports fanatic. Personal account.
“They realize there is a gap in capability that may play to our strengths,” said Evan S. Medeiros... “On nuclear arms control and on missile defense, we can’t get them to engage. But they appear more interested in the case of A.I.”
The U.S. Military Wants A.I. Dominance. Feuds and China May Thwart It.
The administration is veering wildly in its response to the national security implications of A.I. as China, America’s main technological and military rival, charges ahead.
nytimes.com
“US pulls last aircraft carrier in Asia as Trump focuses on Iran and the Western Hemisphere”
US pulls last aircraft carrier in Asia as Trump focuses on Iran and the Western Hemisphere
President Donald Trump’s war against Iran is stretching the limits of the nation’s aircraft carriers and leaving the western Pacific without one of the key American warships.
apnews.com
“Washington similarly tried to force Iran’s hand earlier in the war when it imposed the naval blockade just days after reaching a fragile ceasefire. Some U.S. officials were confident at the time that the blockade would force Iran to settle the war on their terms within weeks.”
The Iran War Is Now About Who Blinks First Under Economic Pressure
The Trump administration is doubling down on sanctions and a naval blockade, while Tehran bets high oil prices will force Washington to relent.
wsj.com
“History, Strategy, and Technology: Thinking About the Second Nuclear Century”
History, Strategy, and Technology: Thinking About the Second Nuclear Century
Delve into the history of nuclear weapons, from past crises to current concerns, and the potential of nuclear energy for the future.
orbisjournal.org
“The FY2027 request finances industrial expansion and projects sustained increases in weapon purchases, but it does not yet publicly demonstrate how the investments made in the first year will generate the production rates necessary to execute the procurements assumed in the outyears.”
aei.org
“The problem for the Trump administration is that making Iran poorer is easier than making economic pain change the decisions of its leaders.”
Iran Is Defying U.S. Pressure by Becoming a ‘Survival Economy’
President Trump’s strategy rests on an assumption that Tehran will crack before Washington, but mediators warn that Iran has been living under sanctions for years.
wsj.com
“All these explanations suggest the Trump administration is indeed serious about providing some kind of enrichment capability to Saudi Arabia. This is a radical departure from 50 years of US policy of containing the spread of nuclear fuel cycle capabilities.”
The US-Saudi nuclear deal isn't dead—It's dragging Washington into nonproliferation quicksand
A condition that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel hasn't killed the nuclear agreement—it has only masked the fine print. Behind official claims that uranium enrichment is off the table, th...
thebulletin.org
“Don't Call It A Scud Hunt: Observations on Recent Counterforce Operations”
Don't Call It A Scud Hunt: Observations on Recent Counterforce Operations
Brief Reflections on Recent Conflicts, Part 2
strategicsimplicity.substack.com
“The challenge in the Pacific is much greater…U.S. military bases and other infrastructure across the Pacific—from Japan and the Philippines to Guam and South Korea—are highly vulnerable to Chinese and North Korean missiles and drones.”
Opinion | America’s Military Is Dangerously Exposed
The Iran war proves it, and the Chinese threat is greater. We need new thinking about defense.
wsj.com
“Air Force seeks AI tool to help manage Minuteman III ICBM sustainment”
Air Force seeks AI tool to help manage Minuteman III ICBM sustainment - Breaking Defense
The new AI tool could help cut down the cumbersome labor needed to sift through roughly 60 different data sources, according to the Air Force.
breakingdefense.com
“Over the course of the operation, this integrated architecture intercepted over 6,000 one-way attack drones and more than 1,500 ballistic missiles aimed at U.S. forces, Israel, and our Arab partners.”
Army Downed More Than 1,400 Iranian Missiles And Drones During Epic Fury And 12-Day War
The Army's air and missile defense boss offered new context about how the service defended against Iranian threats in the two most recent Middle East conflicts.
twz.com
“The case has been laid out before the president in Oval Office meetings…that tightening the current sanctions and issuing fresh, tough ones could force leaders in Tehran to buckle, the officials said”
Trump’s New Strategy of Nothing
But how long can the impulsive, reactive president show restraint?
theatlantic.com
Joint Statement on Notifications of Ballistic Missile Launches”
Joint Statement on Notifications of Ballistic Missile Launches
geneva.usmission.gov
“JASON Plutonium Aging Executive Summary, Unclassified 2025”
JASON Plutonium Aging Executive Summary, Unclassified 2025
The 2025 JASON Plutonium Aging Executive Summary, Unclassified
energy.gov
"On the sidelines of the symposium, Guetlein told reporters that he hadn’t seen anything from the defense industry to change his mind on the affordability of space-based interceptors, but added he was impressed with what he’s seen."
‘There is no Golden Dome’ unless Congress prioritizes funding, general warns
Last year, the Pentagon forbade officials to talk about it. Now the program’s leader is calling for help.
defenseone.com
"Golden Dome Missile Defense Shield At Risk Of Grinding To A Halt Due To Budget Impasse"
Golden Dome Missile Defense Shield At Risk Of Grinding To A Halt Due To Budget Impasse
Despite progress, "if they don't figure it out, there is no Golden Dome because there is no funding," the top officer in charge says.
twz.com
"..is to make sure that we have credible, rational nuclear options that a President..adopting the simple principle of being a normal human being with common sense would actually implement. And..that is..what we're doing in the nuclear strategy review"
The first of what the U.S. Air Force hopes will one day be a force of 100 B-21 bombers will be “on the ramp” at Ellsworth Air Force Base..in 2027, White said..Plans call for Northrop Grumman to produce seven operational bombers per year, White said.
B-21 bomber, F-47 next-generation fighter ahead of schedule, top Air Force general says
The B-21 stealth bomber will join an operational squadron next year, and a first flight scheduled for 2028 for the F-47 next-generation fighter.
stripes.com
“At the moment, there’s not a path forward for a supplemental, and it’s tied up with whether or not we have a reconciliation,” said Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), a defense booster who sees no current way to unlock Hegseth’s landmark defense budget.
Hegseth can’t persuade Republicans to back his big budget
Senators are leaving town no closer to enacting the crown jewel of the Defense secretary’s agenda.
politico.com
He [Trump] acknowledged that Iran “can always shoot something, always..drop a mine, and if you have one mine sitting out there, you sort of mess things up because people don’t want to take their billion-dollar boats and accidentally get hit by a mine.”
Iran Sees an Opening to Kick the U.S. Out of the Gulf
In talks on the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has vowed to block U.S. Navy ships from using the waterway.
wsj.com
“One GOP senator granted anonymity to speak candidly said the Senate leaving town without adopting a budget framework “will be the end of the budget resolution.” “It will be the end of reconciliation,” the senator added.
Republicans face likely year-end test after punting Trump spending bill
It’s far from clear that the bill will make it to Trump’s desk.
politico.com
“There’s..a review or sort of relook at the employment guidance, which is more about the commander of STRATCOM..and his responsibilities and [the defense] secretary’s authorities..,” he said.. Colby also noted that the review will not be released to the general public.
Pentagon wants ‘expanding options’ for nuclear weapons, officials say - Breaking Defense
“There's, you know, a review or sort of relook at the employment guidance, which is more about the commander of STRATCOM and his responsibilities and [the defense] secretary's authorities, etcetera,” ...
breakingdefense.com
Conversely, STRATCOM Commander Adm. Richard Correll reaffirmed to reporters earlier in the day that the most recent yearly assessment delivered to Congress on the nuclear stockpile..said there was “not a need at that point to resume nuclear testing.”
Yeaw Ties Nuclear Testing Concerns To Arms Control, Modernization - Defense Daily
OMAHA, Neb. — Suspected covert Chinese nuclear testing justifies U.S. preparations to resume nuclear explosive testing on an “equal basis” while pursuing
defensedaily.com
"Correll Confident In ‘Graceful Transition’ From Minuteman III To Sentinel"
Correll Confident In ‘Graceful Transition’ From Minuteman III To Sentinel - Defense Daily
OMAHA, Neb. — U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) Commander Adm. Richard Correll expressed confidence here the United States will smoothly transition from
defensedaily.com
“The decisions we make now about requirements, timelines and resources…will serve our nation for the next 50 to 70 years,” Correll said, adding he remains “absolutely confident” in the current and future U.S. deterrent.
STRATCOM: Modernization Effort ‘Once-In-Every-Other-Generation’ - Defense Daily
OMAHA, Neb. — U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) Commander Adm. Richard Correll said the United States is navigating a “once-in-every-other-generation”
defensedaily.com
Colby argued arms control should not be viewed solely through the lens of formal treaties, saying future arrangements could involve broader mechanisms that establish “implicit barriers or thresholds” between competitors...“If you’re having productive discussions...that can be productive.”
Colby: Arms Control Must Evolve Beyond Treaties, But Talks With China Still ‘Realistic’ - Defense Daily
OMAHA, Neb. – Elbridge Colby, undersecretary of defense for policy, said here Wednesday the U.S. must pursue arms control while maintaining a credible
defensedaily.com
