@kpdmusing.bsky.social
🍾 Huge congrats to our team - we're back on top. 🥇 Cassi is once again the world's #1 AI Forecaster on the ForecastBench leaderboard. 🤖 Superhuman on "marketplace" questions. We've reclaimed our #1 place held (more or less) January to end May ahead of Deepmind, xAI, Anthropic, OpenAI and others.
Wow! Hats off to our team on this. Incredible stuff.
@cassi-ai.bsky.social · last mo.🍾 Huge congrats to our team - we're back on top. 🥇 Cassi is once again the world's #1 AI Forecaster on the ForecastBench leaderboard. 🤖 Superhuman on "marketplace" questions. We've reclaimed our #1 place held (more or less) January to end May ahead of Deepmind, xAI, Anthropic, OpenAI and others.
Terrific news - tell your friends!
@cassi-ai.bsky.social · 5mo ago📢 New Results: 🥈 Cassi is 3rd best forecaster in 2026 on Metaculus' benchmark questions 🥇 & the best AI. Leaderboard just published. 2026 is only two months old. There are not many questions resolved (low sample size). Still, this is a terrific result.
New from Magda Pacholska and I: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... (open access - no paywall).
The Misguided Effort to Regulate Military AI: No New IHL Needed
Keith Dear and Magdalena Pacholska argue that humans are responsible and accountable when delegating the use of lethal force to machines and these actions are regulated by existing international hu...
tandfonline.com
Really proud to be leading such a terrific team, and delighted for those leading this specific challenge. We knew we were at the frontier, and pushing it forward. Now the world does too.
@cassi-ai.bsky.social · 7mo agoThis is huge—Cassi came 2nd overall and 1st on "Dataset" questions on @Research_FRI Forecastbench! 🥈📈 What this means: 🧵
Terrific fun yesterday talking about this with super smart and engaged audience and brilliant friends and colleagues on stage. Hope you enjoy it as much as I did! open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...
Prediction Centric Warfare
Notes and slides from my talk at DSEI yesterday.
open.substack.com
New blog: how we see the world at Cassi - decisions, tactics, strategy, perception, agency - everything is prediction. cassiai.substack.com/p/everything...
Future Diplomat - New Cassi Blog Post out now. open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...
Future Diplomat
Reimagining Diplomacy for 2035.
open.substack.com
“Don’t be humble, you’re not that great.” Golda Meir I think. In that spirit 😊. But maybe consider subscribing, or upgrading to a paid subscription. cassiai.substack.com
Today (w/ @ox.ac.uk @stanford @MIT @LSE) we’re sharing the results of the largest AI persuasion experiments to date: 76k participants, 19 LLMs, 707 political issues. We examine “levers” of AI persuasion: model scale, post-training, prompting, personalization, & more! 🧵:
@kpdmusing.bsky.social defines asymmetric advantage as ‘demonstrably matching our strengths against other’s weaknesses, in a way that we can show, probabilistically, will lead us to achieve a superior position if we are successful’ #BigAsk #BritainsWorld
How should Britain define asymmetric advantage?
The Big Ask | No. 27.2025
britainsworld.org.uk
Pleased to have my take on the definition of asymmetric advantage in our National Security Strategy published by the Council on Geostrategy - and among a stellar cast offering their views.
Council on Geostrategy@congeostrategy.bsky.social · last yr.How should 🇬🇧 define asymmetric advantage? We asked 8 experts in today's #BigAsk ✍️ Dr Keith Dear, Prof. Carl Hunter OBE, Dr Ksenia Kirkham, Christian Le Miere, @james-rogers.bsky.social, @salisbot.bsky.social, @covertshores.bsky.social and Victoria Vdovychenko #BritainsWorld
Thoughts on the Review, and my worry we miss the opportunity it gives us. open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...
UK Strategic Defence Review (SDR): Reviewing the Review & the Reactionariat.
The good, bad and ugly.
open.substack.com
Robustly demonstrated by now that you don’t need a mind to have theory of mind:
