Lauri Myllyvirta

@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social

Co-founder and lead analyst, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air; senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute: tracking & accelerating progress from polluting energy to clean air, with research and evidence.

OECD power generation from gas has seen a significant drop in the five months since LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz were first disrupted. This has not resulted in an increase in coal-fired generation as solar and wind have covered demand growth and the fall in gas.

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Trade data for July will soon show significant jumps in oil imports for China, Japan and South Korea, compared to June. This might seem a return to the market but it's just a delayed effect of the brief re-opening of Hormuz in June; tanker departures have now fallen back down.

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JOB OPPORTUNITY: Come work with me to produce timely, high-impact analysis of the biggest developments in energy, economy and air pollution! We're looking for a data scientist to produce cutting edge analysis and an insights analyst to turn it into high-quality briefings.

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One of the main factors balancing the oil market has been the Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu port. The pipeline and facilities at each end are vulnerable to attacks. Iran definitely still has the ability to cause a full-blown global oil crisis if it chooses to do so.

Lauri Myllyvirta@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Shipments from the Gulf look to have stabilized at less than half of the pre-closure levels, with the loss of supply amounting to 10 mbd rather than the commonly cited 20.

A striking, touching illustration of the shifting baseline syndrome. To someone from two generations ago, what we think of as beautiful, unspoiled nature would seem, or in this case, sound, like an almost barren landscape with just a couple of odd survivor species hanging on.

Kees van der Leun@sustainable2050.bsky.social · 3w ago

Listen to Britain’s dawn chorus of 1976: the dramatic loss of birdsong in 50 years. Great audio reconstruction. Same here near Utrecht, the Netherlands: From deafening chorus to almost silent spring. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

China's thermal (coal&gas-fired) power generation continued to rebound in June (+0.5%) and Q2 (+2%) but remained below its 2023 peak. Oil refinery throughput plummeted by 18%, showing role of consumption cuts and product inventories in absorbing the sharp fall in imports.

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China's crude oil imports fell by no less than 41% on year in June and 11% in the first half of the year. Fossil gas imports were down 3% in H1 while coal imports were up 2% but still down 10% compared with 2024.

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NEW from us: China's traffic-related air pollution levels dropped sharply after the Hormuz crisis, as fuel consumption fell and EV use surged. This is more evidence that the fall in China's oil import isn't just inventory drawdown but real consumption cuts. 🧵

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3/ Irony number two. I was told for years that climate change is a hoax and British summers aren't getting hotter. Now the same voices demand to know why Britain never installed AC. You cannot have it both ways. The case for cooling IS the case that the climate is changing.

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China targets an EV share of 30% out of all vehicles on the road by 2030, up from 12% at the end of 2025. This is a significant target given that the share of EVs in new registrations was 49% in 2025 and the share increased 3.1pp - the new target requires 3.6pp/year.

If countries kept growing the share of clean power at the same rate as in the past 6 years, when would they have 100% non-fossil power? By this simple measure, 13 developed countries are on track to clean power by 2035, and 7 developing countries by 2050. Others need to speed up.

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Lauri Myllyvirta@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 4w ago

Which countries are actually succeeding in building clean energy? China leads in absolute volumes, no surprises there, but relative to the size of the energy system, five other countries achieved larger increases in the past six years.

Which countries are actually succeeding in building clean energy? China leads in absolute volumes, no surprises there, but relative to the size of the energy system, five other countries achieved larger increases in the past six years.

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China’s new five-year environment plan, Building a Beautiful China, is out. For energy and air quality, the plan sends two different signals: stronger action in the main air pollution control regions, but weak national-level ambition.

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New from us: almost 10 GW of coal-fired power is planned in Indonesia to power aluminum refining, despite the fact that solar plus storage can now compete on cost with coal. Many of the aluminum plants are Chinese-owned, flouting Xi's commitment not to build coal power overseas.

Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air@creacleanair.bsky.social · last mo.

🇮🇩 NEW | BRIEFING: #Indonesia’s #aluminium downstreaming is set to be powered with 9.8 GW of #CaptiveCoal power capacity, repeating the lock-in legacy of #nickel energyandcleanair.org/publication/...

Adoption of air conditioning in Europe at U.S. levels would bring massive health benefits, while the emission implications would be minuscule, unlike many suggest - and, done right, it would help the clean energy transition by boosting electrification and clean energy. 🧵

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China's newly released five-year plan for the energy sector has very little to get excited about. To keep China's energy transition on track, the targets have to be exceeded by a wide margin, or ambition has to be nudged up from the top.

China's fossil power generation continued to rebound in May, up 2%, driven by exceptionally bad wind conditions. Without the drop in wind speeds, increased clean energy supply would have easily pushed down power generation from coal and gas. Industrial emissions fell. 🧵

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New article: Indonesia’s currency fell to a record low in early June. The underappreciated driver of the crisis: fossil fuel dependence and subsidies. The crisis has several causes, but budget deficit and weakening trade balance are key - and fossil fuels are central to both.

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Cutting global net emissions to zero using existing technical and policy solutions will cost at most a few percent of GDP, with many solutions economically beneficial. Halving global emissions by limiting GDP growth costs about half of the global GDP. Not a tough choice.

Thomas Piketty@thomaspiketty.bsky.social · 2mo ago

The key finding of the report is that energy transition alone will not suffice. We need to combine it with "sufficiency" to stay within 2 degrees. This includes labour hour reductions, growth caps in rich countries, less material consumption, and changes in food habits.

Global CO2 emissions largely plateaued since 2013 thanks to clean energy growth - "next time someone shows you a graph of CO2 concentrations arguing that nothing is changing, show them how much worse it'd have been had we really done nothing to change our emissions trajectory."

Zeke Hausfather@zekehausfather.com · 2mo ago

Global CO2 emissions have plateaued since 2013, leading to a slower growth in atmospheric CO2 than would have otherwise been the case. In a new analysis at The Climate Brink, I've taken look at what would have happened if emissions had continued to grow: www.theclimatebrink....

The coal "jump" that wasn't. Complete data for May: -total global coal imports +0.3% yoy -thermal coal imports -7%! March-May: -total coal imports -2% -thermal coal imports -6% Met coal imports rose 7% in March-May, but that was just a partial reversal of an 8% drop in 2025.

Lauri Myllyvirta@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 3mo ago

The Financial Times ran an entire story of coal shipments "jumping" that is based on an algorithmic artifact in shipping data.