The BLS diffusion index printed 54.4 in June 2026, identical to the full-year 2007 average. Payroll breadth spent nine of twelve months of 2025 below 50. One industry, health care, is generating 86 percent of net US job growth. www.leadlagreport.com/the-jobs-rep...
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
@leadlagreport.bsky.social
5x Dow & Founders Award Winner. Risk-On/Off $RORO ETF, Junk-On/Off $JOJO ETF, & $ATACX Mutual Fund Portfolio Manager. Publisher Of The Lead-Lag Report.
Contrarian: VIX fell 0.81% into the Aug. 3 close, but volatility is a price. It can be cheap without being a forecast.
Central banks bought 243.7 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, only about 16 tonnes were officially reported. Real yields at 2.44 percent sit at 2008 highs while gold prints records\n\nhttps://www.leadlagreport.com/the-gold-signal-equity-markets-refuse-to-hear/
Shock-data: SPY gained 1.42% into the Aug. 3 close while TLT slipped 0.07%. Equity strength without duration confirmation is a split tape.
Today's Asset Gathering Brief: Daily Asset Gathering Brief — Wednesday, August 05, 2026 Daily read for issuers — advisor rotation signals + flow data. app.getresponse.com/view.html?x=...
Today's Advisor Brief: Midweek: S&P Up to 7,736.52 — Stay the Course? Daily read for 24k+ advisors — flow rotation, macro, sector shifts. app.getresponse.com/view.html?x=...
Fed proposed quadrupling 1994-era insider lending thresholds, indexing to GDP. Real deadline is Jan 1, 2027. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-fed-prop...
Choose one signal: stocks, bonds, or vol. Friday: SPY +0.72% | TLT -0.66% | VIX -6.44%.
Anti-AI with Seth Cogswell. Live 2 PM ET. 1 CFP CE Credit. www.leadlagreport.com/starting-in-...
Live at 2 PM ET. Efficient Growth is trading like the involuntary Anti-AI portfolio. Factor dispersion at a decade-plus high. 1 CFP CE Credit. www.leadlagreport.com/starting-in-...
Contrarian: VIX fell 6.44% Friday, but volatility is a price. It can be cheap without being a forecast.
Shock-data: SPY gained 0.72% Friday while TLT fell 0.66%. Equity strength without duration confirmation is a split tape.
Today's Asset Gathering Brief: Daily Asset Gathering Brief — Tuesday, August 04, 2026 Daily read for issuers — advisor rotation signals + flow data. app.getresponse.com/view.html?x=...
Today's Advisor Brief: VIX 15.74: The Friday 15 Review Daily read for 24k+ advisors — flow rotation, macro, sector shifts. app.getresponse.com/view.html?x=...
FRA wrote a noise rule for trains no US train currently runs. FCC spectrum release was the bigger event this week. www.freemarketsreport.com/washington-w...
Tomorrow at 2 PM ET. Seth Cogswell of Running Oak Capital on the Anti-AI trade, the Grand Illusion, and factor dispersion at a decade-plus high. 1 CFP CE Credit. www.leadlagreport.com/paid-subscri...
Live tomorrow. Anti-AI: Why Efficient Growth is trading nothing like the S&P 500 right now. With Seth Cogswell, Running Oak Capital. Tuesday, 2 PM ET. 1 CFP CE Credit. us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Live tomorrow with Seth Cogswell, Running Oak Capital. Factor dispersion is at a decade-plus wide. Twenty of the last 38 trading days saw 110bps+ differentials. www.leadlagreport.com/anti-ai-why-...
Pick one: stocks, bonds, or volatility. Friday: SPY +0.72% | TLT -0.66% | VIX -6.44%.
Contrarian: VIX fell 6.44% Friday, but that is a price, not a forecast. Calm can be crowded.
Shock-data: SPY gained 0.72% Friday while TLT fell 0.66%. Equity strength without duration confirmation is a split tape.
Today's Asset Gathering Brief: Daily Asset Gathering Brief — Monday, August 03, 2026 Daily read for issuers — advisor rotation signals + flow data. app.getresponse.com/view.html?x=...
Today's Advisor Brief: Advisors Are Shifting — Here's the Playbook Daily read for 24k+ advisors — flow rotation, macro, sector shifts. app.getresponse.com/view.html?x=...
EU AI transparency rules took effect today. No listed company discloses revenue from it. The expensive part got pushed to 2027/2028. www.freemarketsreport.com/europes-ai-l...
Japan removed the privacy rule blocking bank fraud data sharing. Fraud losses doubled last year. Full system live April 2027. www.freemarketsreport.com/japan-delete...
Standing Repo Facility takeup hit $31.5 billion on Dec 31, 2025. SOFR traded above IORB on 31 days in 2025 vs zero in 2019. Something is breaking in the plumbing, and the Fed is not saying so. the-lead-lag-report.ghost.io/the-repo-whi...
Federal interest just passed defense. Debt-to-GDP exceeded the WWII peak in peacetime. Foreign buyers are disassembling. A democratic socialist just took NYC. Same story, upstream and downstream. the-lead-lag-report.ghost.io/when-the-bon...
New DPA determination clears the way for export restrictions on tungsten scrap and battery black mass. Restricts nothing yet, copper precedent shows the gap can last a year plus. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-swarf-cl...
Nonfinancial commercial paper hit a record $397.2B on May 6, 2026, then fell to $342.1B by July 29 (13.9% contraction; 7th percentile since 2001). Similar moves: 2007, 2019. www.leadlagreport.com/what-commerc...
Nuveen's AMT-Free Municipal Credit Income Fund (NVG) offers some of the best tax math in the closed-end fund universe and the thinnest margin of safety it has had www.leadlagreport.com/a-12-taxable...