🚨How Clacton would vote if all parties ran: ➡️ Ref: 57% ( +11 ) 🔵 Con: 11% ( -17 ) 🟢 Grn: 9% ( +5 ) 🔴 Lab: 9% ( -7 ) 🟠 Lib: 7% ( +3 ) Reform HOLD (14% swing to Reform) Via @Survation, 16 - 24 July ( +/- vs 2024 ) x.com/LeftieStats/...
Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️
@leftiestats.bsky.social
www.statsforlefties.com Stats and election analysis from a progressive, Marxist perspective. Run by Eleanora Folan (she/her). All opinions my own. Trans woman 🏳️⚧️
🫡Glory to the Iranian resistance, whose courageous fight against the imperialist dogs of the USA has utterly humiliated the Great Satan✊ Inshallah Iran will fully repel US imperialism, Palestine will be freed from the bloodthirsty Zionist entity and Israel will be abolished✊
🗳️ NEW | Reform lead by 1pt ➡️ Ref: 23% ( +1 ) 🔴 Lab: 22% ( - ) 🔵 Con: 19% ( -2 ) 🟢 Grn: 13% ( - ) 🟠 Lib: 12% ( +1 ) -- Seats -- ➡️ Ref: 190 🔴 Lab: 164 🔵 Con: 101 🟠 Lib: 77 🟡 SNP: 49 🟢 Grn: 24 🟩 Plaid: 12 Poll: YouGov, 2-3 Aug (+/- vs 27 July) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🚨 NEW | Greens surge in London Mayor contest: 🔴 Lab: 32% ( -12 ) 🟢 Grn: 18% ( +12 ) 🔵 Con: 17% ( -16 ) ➡️ Ref: 17% ( +14 ) 🟠 Lib: 10% ( +4 ) Runoff (my estimate): 🔴 Lab: 55% 🟢 Grn: 45% Via @OpiniumResearch, July 2026 (+/- vs 2024) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🚨 Constituency poll of Clacton (all candidates): ➡️ Reform: 73% ( +27 ) ⚫️ Binface: 20% ( +20 ) 🔴 Reclaim: 2% ( +2 ) ⚪️ Other: 5% ( -49 ) Via @Survation, 16 - 24 July ( +/- vs 2024 ) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🚨 BREAKING | Count Binface to win almost a third of votes in Clacton, reveals new constituency poll 😲 ➡️ Reform: 69% ( +23 ) ⚫️ Binface: 31% ( +31 ) Reform HOLD ( 4% swing to Binface ) Via @Survation (date TBD) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ BREAKING | Labour surge to 4pt lead 🔴 Lab: 27% ( +5 ) ➡️ Ref: 23% ( - ) 🔵 Con: 17% ( -3 ) 🟠 Lib: 12% ( +1 ) 🟢 Grn: 12% ( -2 ) -- Seats -- 🔴 Lab: 267 ➡️ Ref: 153 🟠 Lib: 79 🔵 Con: 48 🟡 SNP: 48 🟢 Grn: 14 🟩 Plaid: 11 Poll: Opinium, 29 July (+/- vs 17 July) x.com/LeftieStats/...
Gr. Manchester result (+/- vs May local elections): 🔴 Lab: 47% ( +24 ) ➡️ Ref: 21% ( -10 ) 🟢 Grn: 12% ( -7 ) ⚫️ Res: 9% ( +9 ) 🔵 Con: 8% ( -3 ) 🟠 Lib: 3% ( -7 ) In May's local elections, Labour lost to Reform across the region by a 7pt margin. Tonight they WON by 26pts. x.com/LeftieStats/...
🚨 BREAKING | Labour wins Manchester Mayor 🔴 Lab: 47% ( -16 ) ➡️ Ref: 21% ( +13 ) 🟢 Grn: 12% ( +5 ) ⚫️ Res: 9% ( +9 ) 🔵 Con: 8% ( -3 ) 🟠 Lib: 3% ( -1 ) -- Runoff -- 🔴 Lab: 66% ➡️ Ref: 34% Labour HOLD ( 15% swing to Reform ) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ BREAKING | Labour surge to 5pt lead 🔴 Lab: 28% ( +5 ) ➡️ Ref: 23% ( -4 ) 🔵 Con: 20% ( - ) 🟠 Lib: 10% ( -1 ) 🟢 Grn: 10% ( -3 ) -- Seats -- 🔴 Lab: 267 ➡️ Ref: 115 🔵 Con: 102 🟠 Lib: 68 🟡 SNP: 48 🟩 Plaid: 11 🟢 Grn: 10 Poll: BMG Research, 28-30 July (+/- vs 25 June) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🚨 How the British public would vote in Clacton (excluding undecided voters): ➡️ Nigel Farage ~ 58% 🗑️ Count Binface ~ 42% Via @Survation, 10-13 July 2026 x.com/LeftieStats/...
🚨 NEW | Manchester Mayor turnout: Votes: 538,659 (-124,972) Turnout: 25.1% (-6.9pts) +/- vs 2024 x.com/LeftieStats/...
🚨 BREAKING | Manchester Mayor 'exit poll' 🔴 Lab: 41% ( -22 ) ➡️ Ref: 22% ( +15 ) 🟢 Grn: 15% ( +8 ) 🔵 Con: 9% ( -1 ) ⚫️ RB: 8% ( +8 ) 🟠 Lib: 5% ( +1 ) -- Runoff -- 🔴 Lab: 64% ➡️ Ref: 36% Via @FindoutnowUK, 30 July (+/- vs 2024 election) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ NOWCAST | July 2026 ➡️ Ref: 229 ( +224 ) 🔴 Lab: 140 ( -271 ) 🔵 Con: 89 ( -32 ) 🟠 Lib: 77 ( +5 ) 🟡 SNP: 48 ( +39 ) 🟢 Grn: 28 ( +24 ) 🟢 Plaid: 11 ( +7 ) -- Blocs -- 🔵 Right: 327 ( +193 ) 🟠 Centre: 220 ( -266 ) 🔴 Left: 80 ( +72 ) Government: Reform minority➡️ x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ FINAL ESTIMATE | Greater Manchester Mayor: 🔴 Lab: 35% ( -28 ) ➡️ Ref: 22% ( +15 ) 🟢 Grn: 18% ( +11 ) Estimated result after 2nd votes: 🔴 Lab: 62% ➡️ Ref: 38% Labour HOLD ( 21% swing to Reform ) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ NEW | Labour / Reform tied 🔴 Lab: 23% ( +1 ) ➡️ Ref: 23% ( -1 ) 🔵 Con: 19% ( - ) 🟢 Grn: 14% ( - ) 🟠 Lib: 11% ( +1 ) -- Seats -- 🔴 Lab: 183 ➡️ Ref: 176 🔵 Con: 97 🟠 Lib: 76 🟡 SNP: 58 🟢 Grn: 27 🟩 Plaid: 11 Poll: FindOutNow, 29 July (+/- vs 22 July) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ FINAL ESTIMATE | Greater Manchester Mayor: 🔴 Lab: 35% ( -28 ) ➡️ Ref: 22% ( +15 ) 🟢 Grn: 18% ( +11 ) 🔵 Con: 10% ( - ) ⚫️ Res: 6% ( +6 ) 🟠 Lib: 6% ( +1 ) Estimated result after 2nd votes: 🔴 Lab: 62% ➡️ Ref: 38% Labour HOLD ( 21% swing to Reform ) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ POLL | Greater Manchester Mayor: 🔴 Lab: 39% ( -24 ) ➡️ Ref: 19% ( +12 ) 🟢 Grn: 14% ( +7 ) 🔵 Con: 12% ( +2 ) ⚫️ Res: 8% ( +8 ) 🟠 Lib: 8% ( +4 ) Result after 2nd votes: 🔴 Lab: 65% ➡️ Ref: 35% Poll: @Moreincommon_, 11-23 July --- ( +/- vs 2024 Mayoral election ) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ NEW | Labour / Reform tied 🔴 Lab: 22% ( +1 ) ➡️ Ref: 22% ( -1 ) 🔵 Con: 21% ( +1 ) 🟢 Grn: 13% ( - ) 🟠 Lib: 11% ( -3 ) { Seats } 🔴 Lab: 162 🔵 Con: 158 ➡️ Ref: 142 🟠 Lib: 71 🟡 Nat: 59 🟢 Grn: 24 Poll: YouGov, 26-27 July (+/- vs 23 July) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ BREAKING | Labour surge to poll LEAD (!) ➡️ Ref: 24% ( -2 ) 🔴 Lab: 28% ( +4 ) 🔵 Con: 22% ( - ) 🟠 Lib: 12% ( +1 ) 🟢 Grn: 8% ( -3 ) { Seats } 🔴 Lab: 246 🔵 Con: 128 ➡️ Ref: 115 🟠 Lib: 72 🟡 Nat: 59 🟢 Grn: 8 Poll: More in Common, 24-27 Jul (+/- vs 22 Jul) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ BREAKING | Labour surge to poll LEAD (!) 🔴 Lab: 28% ( +4 ) ➡️ Ref: 24% ( -2 ) 🔵 Con: 22% ( - ) 🟠 Lib: 12% ( +1 ) 🟢 Grn: 8% ( -3 ) { Seats } 🔴 Lab: 246 🔵 Con: 128 ➡️ Ref: 115 🟠 Lib: 72 🟡 Nat: 59 🟢 Grn: 8 Poll: More in Common, 24-27 Jul (+/- vs 22 Jul) x.com/LeftieStats/...
It's not a "conspiracy theory", Lucas was literally hanging out at Labour events and demanding that the party endorse Burnham in Makerfield, this stuff isn't a secret. It's just that nobody in the party was willing to enforce the party rules on a "senior member". x.com/LeftieStats/...
🚨 BREAKING | Burnham confirms he will NOT implement rent controls, breaking another promise. As Mayor, Burnham repeatedly demanded rent controls. But today Angela Rayner confirmed the government will permit landlords to keep raising rents sky-high. (Via @BBC) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ NEW | Reform lead by 2pts ➡️ Ref: 23% ( - ) 🔴 Lab: 21% ( +1 ) 🔵 Con: 20% ( -1 ) 🟠 Lib: 14% ( +2 ) 🟢 Grn: 13% ( -1 ) ⚫️ Res: 4% (+1) { Seats } ➡️ Ref: 196 🔴 Lab: 136 🔵 Con: 124 🟠 Lib: 81 🟡 Nat: 59 🟢 Grn: 30 Via @YouGov, 22-23 Jul (+/- vs 20 Jul) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ NEW | Reform lead by 2pts ➡️ Ref: 26% ( - ) 🔴 Lab: 24% ( +2 ) 🔵 Con: 22% ( - ) 🟠 Lib: 11% ( -1 ) 🟢 Grn: 11% ( -1 ) { Seats } ➡️ Ref: 187 🔴 Lab: 167 🔵 Con: 134 🟠 Lib: 67 🟡 Nat: 59 🟢 Grn: 13 Via @Moreincommon_, 21-22 July (+/- vs 13 July) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🗳️ NEW | Reform lead by 2pts ➡️ Ref: 24% ( - ) 🔴 Lab: 22% ( +3 ) 🔵 Con: 19% ( -1 ) 🟢 Grn: 14% ( -1 ) 🟠 Lib: 10% ( -1 ) { Seats } ➡️ Ref: 224 🔴 Lab: 148 🔵 Con: 91 🟠 Lib: 69 🟡 Nat: 59 🟢 Grn: 31 Via @FindOutNowUK, 22 July (+/- vs 15 July) x.com/LeftieStats/...
🚨 Who would you prefer to see as Prime Minister? ➡️ 15% – Nigel Farage ( Ref ) 🔴 15% – Andy Burnham ( Lab ) 🔵 11% – Kemi Badenoch ( Con ) 🟢 10% – Zack Polanski ( Grn ) 🟠 5% – Ed Davey ( Lib ) Via @FindOutNowUK, 26-27 June x.com/LeftieStats/...
🧐 Fun fact - Keir Starmer left office as the shortest-serving Labour Prime Minister of all time, with just 745 days in office (a little over 2 years). x.com/LeftieStats/...
