Lembrando que 2027 é ano de Copa do Mundo de novo. E aqui no Brasil. Bora torcer pra mulheres incríveis - mulheres estas que não ganham milhões pra perder pênalti decisivo e que não são ex-jogadoras em atividade.
Leo Bastos
@leosbastos.bsky.social
Public health researcher at Fiocruz 🇧🇷 Associate professor at IMPA Tech 🇧🇷 Bayesian statistician 📈 Infectious diseases modeller 🦠🦟 Father of 3 boys (be nice).
O projeto para a copa 2030 começa bem com o anúncio da aposentadoria de Neymar na seleção. O lado positivo de ter saído ontem é que fomos poupados de um vexame maior, uma vez que os próximos serão com seleções mais fortes (duvido de Noruega passe da Inglaterra por exemplo). Enfim, é a vida...
C'est La Vie Cursive Writing
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I am teaching an introduction to mathematical statistics and yesterday I introduced Bayesian inference. In one of the examples I elicited a prior distribution to the probability of Neymar be announced as a member of the Brazilian squad for the 2026 FIFA World cup.
Even for a Bayesian in an ML/AI new data science world, I find quite pleasure to prove in classroom that an MLE, under smooth conditions, is consistent and asymptotically Gaussian.
I still prefer studying a subjective, specially new subjects, using printed version books. Unfortunatelly it is quite expensive buying them from Brazil. And the most cutting edge is a subject the harder it is to find a book on that subjective in a library here. This is science inequality.
I remember last year results, some news were making fun of the android performance (the fasted one was 2h 40'). I was impressed since my aim in a half-marathon is 2hs and some androids did finish a half-marathon. Then just one year later, an android beat the human record (56') by 6 minutes! Wow!
CNN@cnn.com · 4mo agoLightning, a running robot developed by Chinese smartphone maker Honor, finished a 21-kilometer (13 mile) run in Beijing in a stunning 50 minutes and 26 seconds, beating the human world record by more than six minutes. https://cnn.it/4mLRxQ8
The research Joint Bayesian Nowcasting of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and COVID‐19 Positives in Brazil is published in Statistics in Medicine. doi.org/10.1002/sim....
My research, "Mortality trends for diabetes mellitus, hypertension and cardiovascular disease among people living with and without HIV in Brazil during the COVID‐19 pandemic, 2020–2022", has been published! Read it here: doi.org/10.1111/hiv.... #publishedarticle @wileyinresearch
Very intense day: - Paper accepted in the morning (and one rejected) - Student defending her PhD (she did a wonderful job) - Final report of a project submitted - Scientific initiation grant (PIBIC) submitted - Paper awarded in a event in Brasilia
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Two postdoc positions for a number of exciting epidemic modelling projects opening in my Unit at @pasteur.fr in beautiful Paris. Deadline for applications: 13th April. More details at the following link: research.pasteur.fr/job/two-post...
Two postdoctoral positions in epidemic modelling - Research
Job description We are recruiting 2 postdocs to contribute to research projects in the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, at Institut Pasteur in Paris. The postdocs will develop state...
research.pasteur.fr
It is unsafe for other Scientific meetings too. My favorite meeting is the @isba-bayesian.bsky.social, this year will be in Japan (unfortunately I won't go for personal reasons) and the next one in 28 will be in the US which I won't go either because I am not keen to pass through the visa process.
Madhu Pai, MD, PhD@madhupai.bsky.social · 4mo agoSadly, the Global North, especially the United States, is increasingly unsafe for global health meetings www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Our paper on the Infodengue-Mosqlimate challenge to predict the next dengue season in Brazil is out in @pnas.org www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Leveraging probabilistic forecasts for dengue preparedness and control: The 2024 Dengue Forecasting Sprint in Brazil | PNAS
Forecast models are a key decision-support tool for public health authorities in managing epidemics, feeding into early warning systems, scenario e...
pnas.org
I thought that during the course of these 15+ years after the PhD I would be less annoyed by a manuscript rejection...
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The orange man always surprises me. I do expect the worst from him, but somehow he exceeds himself. I have no words for this 💩
End of holidays and after the kids sleep usually while cooking or doing the dishes I watch animes (Japanese cartoons). An old habit that I have kept doing since a teenager. Recently I have been following these: - Frieren - Sentenced to be a hero - Camping solo for two - Touring after the apocalypse
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If you put Greenland over Brazil. It is a massive piece of land, but not as massive as one would believe by looking at a Mercator projection.
Lula should decline the invitation to join Trump's board of peace. Brazil always wanted to be a permanent member of the UN's Security Council. But this Trump's private version is surreal as most of the things the orange man does and says...
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"If Brazilians submitted a shoe to the Oscar, everyone would vote for it, says the Sirât's director" Really? How many awards for best international feature film has Brazil won? Well, just one in six nominations... I hope we get a second one.
This is indeed the best meme song of 2025. I love it m.youtube.com/shorts/fa3U-...
The Best meme song of 2025
YouTube video by Iliya Shojaei
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Here in Brazil all graduate programs are evaluated by a government agency called CAPES, and the programs get grades up to 7 every 4 years. For reference, PhD programs usually start with 4 points. Programs with a 7 are usually internationally recognized by peers.
2026 resolutions: - starting running again (I had a knee injury just before the pandemic, then I stopped doing sports running and taekwondo) - camping / hiking (alone and/or with family). There are some great places near Rio, like the Parnaso - work less (I was this close to a burnout this year)
I have recently realised that I am not an intellectual person, some may call me a scientist which I am not sure if it is right. I am Brazilian civil servant (public health researcher) and a part time lecturer devoted to (Bayesian) stats mostly applied to infectious disease epidemiology.
I need this sort of holidays. Translating: - Stop thinking about work. - Sorry.
I was going to reject reviewing a manuscript. I entered the journal website and I thought I was accepting the cookies of the journal website but I was in fact accepting the revision 🤡
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SARI (Severe acute respiratory illness) cases with influenza detection in Brazil. We had a clear outbreak associated with H1N1 and some states had a second outbreak associated with H3N2. This second "wave" different from the first one is completely out of season.
Yesterday, I gave a talk on the E-vigilancia ("e-surveilance") conference at the FGV (Getúlio Vargas Foundation). My talk was about how Google trends data could improve nowcasts and short term forecasts of dengue cases in Brazil. Marcelo (Fiocruz) and Flavio (FGV) were in the same session.
This is somehow scary. Everyone is aware that AI has been used during the writing of a manuscript, but as expected it will eventually be part of the revision process. So scientific publication is going through a big change, and I guess the impact of research will no longer be measured on papers.
Adolfo Neto@adolfoneto.elixiremfoco.com · 8mo agoAI writes paper AI reviews paper paperreview.ai