NEW | The RSF captured el Fasher after an 18-month siege, solidifying a de facto partition in Sudan. The Emirati-backed RSF is committing war crimes that are likely crimes against humanity & possibly acts of ethnic cleansing. Details in the Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/sud...

"Analysis by the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) outlined how Russia is filling a vacuum left by former colonizers, France, and capitalizing on recent conflicts and autocratic regimes that mirror Moscow's." @newsweek.com newsweek.com/russia-afric...

US and Russia are competing for influence in Africa

Entrenched in the Sahel, Russia is making a push for influence in Togo, according to a report by the Critical Threats Project.

newsweek.com

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW | Russia & the United States are competing in West Africa. Russia is strengthening its Sahelian partnerships and expanding its influence in coastal West Africa. The United States is reengaging the Sahel and bolstering ties in littoral West Africa.🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

With the United States looking to restart its peace efforts in Sudan, @liamkarr.bsky.social writes that the US has an opportunity to secure a key security objective and humanitarian victory. 🧵 Read more here: realclearworld.com/articles/202...

NEW | Al Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate JNIM overran Djibo on May 11 in one of its largest ever attacks in Burkina Faso. JNIM is strengthening while civilians are bearing the brunt of Russian-backed junta leader Ibrahim Traoré's brutal & ineffective regime. 🧵

NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate, JNIM, carried out its deadliest-ever attack in Benin as it continues to increase the lethality of its operations in Benin in 2025. More on the JNIM campaign and its implications from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵

NEW | Al Shabaab captured two key areas in central Somalia as it continues to gain momentum. Al Shabaab's gains have set conditions to undo the US-backed Somali counterterrorism offensive in 2022. More from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 1/8 🧵

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW | The Rapid Support Forces has committed war crimes as it has intensified efforts to consolidate control over western Sudan. RSF atrocities include attacks on the Zamzam refugee camp and are possibly constituent acts of ethnic cleansing or genocide. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...

NEW | The Rapid Support Forces has committed war crimes as it has intensified efforts to consolidate control over western Sudan. RSF atrocities include attacks on the Zamzam refugee camp and are possibly constituent acts of ethnic cleansing or genocide. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW | External meddling in Sudan shows no signs of stopping amid the country’s now two-year civil war. US partners such as the UAE, as well as US adversaries such as Iran and Russia, threaten US interests in the Red Sea by fueling the war. (1/6)

NEW | External meddling in Sudan shows no signs of stopping amid the country’s now two-year civil war. US partners such as the UAE, as well as US adversaries such as Iran and Russia, threaten US interests in the Red Sea by fueling the war. (1/6)

Check out my op-ed for @thehill.com on the "security-for-minerals" discussions between the Democratic Republic of the Congo & the United States. The potential risks & costs are high, and the extent of the benefits is unclear. Here's what US officials should consider: thehill.com/opinion/inte... 🧵

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) juntas lashed out against China in their latest crackdown on allegedly exploitative international investment. This move marks an expansion of the juntas' pro-sovereignty economic campaign beyond Western mining companies. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵

Africa File, April 3, 2025: Russia-Sahel Summit; Sahelian Juntas Target Chinese Mining; M23 Loses Walikale but Uganda Leaves Vacuum

Russia. The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationships with Sahelian juntas to entrench Russian influence in the region and sec...

criticalthreats.org

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW | The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationship with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and possibly threaten NATO's southern flank. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵

The Congolese army & allied militias recaptured the district capital Walikale town after M23 withdrew. The retreat reduces M23’s leverage entering Qatari-mediated negotiations with the DRC and could indicate the group is facing capacity and supply challenges.🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...

Some notable takeaways from Gen. Langley's posture statement to the US Senate today that shed light on the Trump admin's priorities in Africa: - Russia is not mentioned. China got a whole section. - A paragraph is devoted to AFRICOM's efforts to support US investment in critical minerals. 🧵

NEW | The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationship with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and possibly threaten NATO's southern flank. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵

NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) fully retook central Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a major military and political victory for the SAF. What it means for Sudan's civil war: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...

Lots of talk about the deteriorating situation in Somalia lately. I think the immediate threat to Mogadishu may be overstated, but the backsliding in central Somalia is setting conditions for AS to encircle Mog & generate an existential threat in the medium term. More below⬇️

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW | Al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate al Shabaab is attempting to overwhelm Somali forces around Mogadishu and in central Somalia. More from CTP's latest Africa File below🧵🔽: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 1/8

NEW | The Democratic Republic of the Congo & Rwanda agreed to a Qatari-mediated ceasefire, but fundamental disagreements and obstacles remain. Rwandan-backed M23 advanced westward & captured a key district capital on March 19 despite ceasefire efforts. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵

Renewed conflict in Tigray or between Ethiopia and Eritrea would generate an economic, humanitarian, and security crisis that would have reverberations across Africa and even into Europe.🧵 Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels continued their advance along the RN2 road southwest of Bukavu in central South Kivu and entered Mwenga district. M23 has advanced over 30 miles along the RN2 since March 1. Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo... 🧵⬇️

NEW | Pro-Congolese government militia fighters launched counterattacks against M23-aligned rebels that likely involved ethnically-motivated retaliatory violence against Banyamulenge civilians in South Kivu. Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo...

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW| African-led peace initiatives for the eastern DRC face several obstacles, and the international community has not imposed heavy sanctions on Rwanda that would lead Rwanda to cut support to M23. Meanwhile, M23 & and pro-DRC forces are reconstituting. What's likely next🧵: tinyurl.com/555phf2t

NEW | IS Sahel Province (ISSP) is conducting a campaign to establish attack capabilities in Morocco and potentially use Morocco as a bridge for attacks in Europe. More details below from the latest Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... ⬇️🧵1/6

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are advancing in south-central Sudan and setting conditions for an offensive into Rapid Support Forces (RSF) strongholds in Darfur. 1/6

Utterly shameful behavior from Trump + Vance. Belittling and humiliating an ALLY who has done everything to fight for the literal survival of his people (and the free world). Russia's daily atrocities against the Ukrainian people clearly mean nothing to this admin- and that's a bad precedent to set.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last yr.

Trump to Zelenskyy: "Don't tell us what we're gonna feel. You're in no position to dictate that. You're in no position to dictate what we're gonna feel. We're gonna feel very good and very strong. You're right now not in a very good position. You're gambling with World War 3."

Don't cover Ukraine, but this is awful & embarrassing. This is the patronizing approach that people have criticized the US for using with African allies for years. We are bad partners to treat our allies, who are fighting for their existence, in this way.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last yr.

Trump to Zelenskyy: "Don't tell us what we're gonna feel. You're in no position to dictate that. You're in no position to dictate what we're gonna feel. We're gonna feel very good and very strong. You're right now not in a very good position. You're gambling with World War 3."

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8. M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW | The SAF is poised to recapture Khartoum and push the RSF west of the Nile River in a major strategic victory for the SAF. @thomasvlinge.bsky.social 1/7

NEW | Algeria & the United States have tightened their relationship as Algeria seeks to diversify its partnerships beyond its traditional partner, Russia. Stronger Algerian-US ties will benefit US efforts to counter Russia, Iran, and Salafi-jihadi insurgents. 1/7 🧵

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8. M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6

NEW | The war in the eastern DRC will likely escalate further after Rwandan-backed M23 captured Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, continued to advance into South Kivu, and stated that it aims to take Kinshasa. The latest on the battlefield and what could be next⬇️🧵1/7

The Islamic State continues to evolve and expand globally. @liamkarr.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social review how recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further.🧵

As quoted in @nytimes.com, CTP assesses that Russia is setting conditions in Libya to replace its footprint in Syria. These efforts include likely upgrading Russian positions in Libya & working towards securing permission for a Russian naval base. More below🧵⬇️

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · 2y ago

NEW | Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate and withdraw some of its forces from Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. (Image 4 via Maxar Technologies) 🧵⬇️

My latest on Russia in Libya and Syria. I assessed before Assad's fall that Libya was the natural pivot option for the Kremlin and gave details on the pros & cons last week. There were lots of Russian cargo flights to Libya this week, both from Russia & reportedly from Syria.⬇️

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · 2y ago

NEW | Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate and withdraw some of its forces from Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. (Image 4 via Maxar Technologies) 🧵⬇️

Lots of reporting on Russia withdrawing from Syria and reinforcing Libya. Also worth noting increased Russian activity from Libya to Mali in the last 24-48 hours. Some quick details and resources below.🧵⬇️

Sudan is another potential option for the Kremlin if it looks to shift from post-Assad Syria. However, Russia has a much smaller & less well-established position in Sudan than it does in Libya and faces similar political challenges in Sudan as it does in Libya. 🧵⬇️

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · 2y ago

Russia will likely turn to Libya to replace its Syrian bases or mitigate its reliance on its Syrian bases in the Mediterranean & Africa even if it retains its Syrian bases. The Kremlin faces political obstacles that make Russia’s long-term position in Libya vulnerable. 🧵1/7