In the FIFA ASEAN Cup, I’m curious to see whether Herdman (finally) decides to abandon his favoured tactics & play a back 4. The potential is there to unlock, but it takes bravery to make those calls. I’m not seeing that yet
Eldi
@lifeofeldi.bsky.social
Freelance data scientist hoping to provide impactful perspectives on football and reality. Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/lifeofeldi
Gavin Lee can bring Singapore to the final. The squad is stacked with physical, hard-working players. Their OOP shape rarely changes bc every opposition player is shadow-marked to perfection. That makes Singapore so much difficult to break through, which I’m in constant awe of
Indonesia had 60% possession against Singapore, creating 1.26xG. That’s usually a trademark sign of domination. However, Singapore had 1.09xGOT to Indonesia’s 0.69, thus for all that domination, Indonesia still lacked any meaningful finish to their plays
It’s a shame Indonesia didn’t go through to the ASEAN Championship semis, but the tournament does provide valuable feedback for Herdman & co. Specifically, the importance of having a mix of profiles throughout your squad to take advantage of various game states
So much to unpack from tonight’s game, not least Singapore’s resurgence under Gavin Lee as well as Herdman’s insistence on system players (similar to PK & STY). But for now, time to rest & cool emotions down before tomorrow arrives with fresh, rational minds
You see where he operates naturally & you want him to invert more often to complement the CF? That’s never going to work! When a natural winger likes to receives wide and dribbles inward, your FB should make underlaps. Both Pattynama & Dony Tri do that, but it wasn’t often made
Indonesia’s future identity cannot be this 3-4-3 STY-era nonsense. It works for a while, but it’s ultimately predictable & easily exploitable by any team with a disciplined 4-man defence. It’s seriously time to move on and start playing a back 4 that suits Indonesia’s profiles
Hate to say it, but Indonesia, under any coach, are reliant on their foreign-based players. No matter how good the coach is, local players just cannot do the same things bc most of them simply make the same lateral movements
What Indonesian fans often miss out on is that from 2016 to 2026, the quality of local players dramatically went down. The quality of play is also just the same over those 10 years. Yet across ASEAN, both the technical & tactical quality has improved dramatically
Mitchell Baker is raw, but you can’t blame on his lackluster performances against Vietnam & Singapore when Herdman literally called up 3 tall, physical CFs to play in a 3-4-3. It’s Amorim ball all over again, and Indo United fans know what happened with that
I wanted Indonesia to win. Nationalistic pride & all, but mainly that I saw so much improvements in June that I believed Herdman & co would continue that development into the ASEAN Championships. But instead, all I saw was one mistake after another. So disappointing…
Possession means nothing if you can’t control the game. Indonesia will definitely face stubborn defences who are smart with their shadow press. But if you don’t have your players at the right positions that align with their profiles, “disjointed” is what you’ll have
If Singapore manage to avoid injuries for the rest of the tournament, nothing can beat their defence. Gavin Lee has injected positional discipline into the team the likes of which I’ve not seen since the Avramovic era
This didn’t happen from the start of the game. Herdman still chose to play Haye in the #10 position. Sure, Indonesia got their goal early in the 2nd half, but throughout the game, Singapore had better chances
If Indonesia wants to improve against Singapore, they need to realise playing neither a 3-5-2 nor your ONLY metronome away from central areas work. You either play a back 4 OR you play a 3-4-3 with creative 10’s flanking the CF. Anything less & it’s game over!
This was after Indonesia lost to Vietnam. Singapore have proven themselves to be formidable opponents throughout the tournament. You shouldn’t be surprised that Indonesia couldn’t get the win against them
After watching all of Singapore’s games, I don’t think Indonesia can get the result they need on Friday. Gavin Lee is a growingly masterful tactician who has a squad adaptable to & disciplined for any game state. This isn’t pessimism, it’s the truth.
I can’t congratulate & praise Singapore enough. If not for Vietnam’s superior quality & Gavin Lee, they wouldn’t ever be my favourites this tournament. But what I’ve seen so far this tournament is proving to me that Singapore could actually win the whole thing!
Of all the things Indonesia failed at throughout the tournament, the main aspect is forcing to play all 3 of your starting MFs (Klok, Haye, Jenner). The only one undroppable there is Haye, and even then, Indonesia constantly played him out of position, which led to chances wasted
Singapore are blocking Indonesia’s passing lanes so well that neither Klok nor Indonesia’s CBs can pass to the WBs, which, stupidly, stops the entirety of Indonesia’s buildup
Something’s wrong with this referee and VAR team. You can elbow someone in the chest as retaliation for a foul and get away without a card. Singapore did a back-pass and got nothing. Shame bc so far he was doing well for the game
Thom Haye is Indonesia’s metronome. Every meaningful attack goes through him. No surprise that he’s instrumental to Indonesia’s 1st goal. It’s a disservice to his qualities if you push him wide or force him to play in line with the WB/CF
For 2 minutes since the 2nd half kick off, Indonesia’s players were better spaced apart than the entire 45 minutes. Alongside Haye’s pausa, you’re gonna have chances that way
Indonesia’s defensive transition has definitely improved from Vietnam. Having the opposition winger receive from a switch pass isn’t a problem when you still have all 3 CBs in line. It’s what Indonesia do afterwards that’s still worrying
Indonesia’s dynamism on either side works when you have off-ball runners centred around the player who has the ball. That’s why Reijnders & Dony Tri are in the team. But bc Haye is often behind the WB & Oratmangoen stays wide, neither side can progress the ball well
Indonesia’s start to the game was so good, and they even got an early chance in behind Singapore’s defensive line! But once Singapore grew into the game, they’ve had the better chances. It also helps that Indonesia’s attacks often break down from individual errors
Singapore are defending their hearts out. Even if Indonesia have possession in front of their penalty box, Singapore still have the advantage bc they pack the box with so many defenders
Indonesia are indeed capable of repeating 2016, i.e., winning against Singapore to advance to the semis. But history means nothing. What matters is the execution in the present, which I’m not sure Indonesia is ready for yet
A simple change that Indonesia won’t see against Singapore: taking Amat out of the back 3. When you have 3 CBs who have the pace & strength to deal w/ balls in behind, you won’t have the same situations like those that led to Vietnam’s 1st & 2nd goals.
Gavin Lee, a coach with traits of the elites in positional discipline & controlled football. John Herdman, a coach whose tactics are often built on verticality through dynamism on the wings. Opposing philosophies with equally matched players. This is going to be fun to watch!
Meanwhile, as much as this is a “balanced” lineup, I’m still not in favour of a 3-5-2 with Haye & Jenner as 8’s. Klok often receives the ball that doesn’t allow him to turn towards his favoured right side. GK is not brave enough to be a sweeper. That & much more SG could exploit
Damn, this is a very strong lineup. Gavin Lee once again showing his foresight talent. Incredibly flexible & adaptable to game states. Able to move b/w 5-3-2, 4-3-3, & 3-2-5. Indonesia’s midfield might get overrun & outplayed once again