Catch my take at 10:10 on the UK government’s borrowing plans #timesradio #youtube
Linda Yueh
@lindayueh.bsky.social
Economist at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford & London Business School Author of The #GreatCrashes & #GreatEconomists https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/024198808X/ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/lindayueh IG: instagram.com/lindayueh W: www.lindayueh.com
Between 1792 and 1815, as Britain and France fought each other for global dominance, more than one out of every ten British men ended up in the army or navy, resulting in acute labour shortages and upward pressure on wages. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Technology adoption and labour shortages: Evidence from Britain’s Industrial Revolution
As populations in rich countries age and fewer youngsters enter the labour force, employers and politicians bemoan labour ‘shortages’. This column turns to historical evidence to highlight why governm...
cepr.org
Dividend income occupies a particularly important place in this discussion. It is highly concentrated at the top of the income distribution – in the UK, dividends account for more than one quarter of total income for the top 1% and more than one third for the top 0.1% cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Dividend tax reforms: Why design shapes revenue and measured inequality
Governments increasingly look to capital income for both revenue and redistribution. This column compares two dividend tax reforms in Israel – a permanent rate increase and a temporary one-year cut – ...
cepr.org
Nearly a quarter (24%) of the EU-25 population (excluding Germany and Luxembourg) experienced monetary poverty at least once over 2019–2022, well above the headline figure. Several member states exceed 30%, including Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, and Romania cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Beyond the snapshot: How poverty really unfolds over time in the EU
Poverty is not a static condition but a dynamic process. Yet the at-risk-of-poverty rate, which underpins EU poverty monitoring, captures who is poor in a given year but says nothing about how long pe...
cepr.org
AI premium is highest for developed markets, frontier models, experienced users, complex tasks. Equity markets furthermore associate the AI transition more positively with work involving implementation, communication, coordination than with analytical and scientific tasks cepr.org/voxeu/column...
The AI premium
Artificial intelligence is already reshaping the economy and society. This column analyses how AI affects firms, markets, and workers using 380 trillion tokens of realised AI consumption. It calculate...
cepr.org
Research suggests significant benefits of using quantitative easing as a tool to fight recessions when inflation is expected to remain well below the central bank’s target for a protracted period. Even so, there is reason for caution when deploying QE in shallow recessions cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Rethinking the use of quantitative easing for macro stimulus
Quantitative easing has faced recent criticism for causing large central bank losses and contributing to the post-COVID inflation, raising the question of under what conditions it may be warranted as ...
cepr.org
Twitter users per county: 2016-2019. The colouring of the shaded areas indicates the intensity of Twitter activity based on the ratio of Twitter users in percentage of the total population of a given county (darker areas indicate more Twitter activity). cepr.org/voxeu/column...
UN forecasts a fall in the global human population in 2nd half of 21st century, 1st sustained drop since bubonic plague of 14th century. The lowest birth rates today – China at 0.63, Japan at 0.60, Korea at 0.46 – projected by 2050 to see populations decline by 20–30% cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Baby busts and GDP booms: Demographic change and the macroeconomy
Globally declining birth rates have, over the last seven decades, slowed population growth and raised average ages. This column argues that despite widespread economic pessimism, historical cross-coun...
cepr.org
Research finds robust evidence of a carbon premium: firms with higher carbon intensity – measured as scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions per dollar of revenue – face higher loan spreads. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Carbon risk in loan pricing: Commitment channels and real effects
Transition risks related to climate change are increasingly recognised in equity and bond markets. This column uses syndicated loan tranches issued to US firms to study how carbon risk is priced. It f...
cepr.org
On place-based policies, respondents to CfM survey of economists were divided on whether improving productivity in lower-performing regions would significantly raise national productivity or mainly shift activity away from London and the South-East. www.cfmsurvey.org/listsurveys/...
Devolution and UK Policy Alternatives
Experts responding to the CfM-NIESR survey downplayed the potential that greater devolution has on UK economic growth relative to other policy approaches
cfmsurvey.org
Reviewing similar initiatives, pay transparency typically reduces gender pay gaps by 1–3 percentage points. In Denmark, for example, a 2006 reform narrowed the gap mainly through slower wage growth for men rather than higher wages for women cepr.org/voxeu/column...
The new EU Pay Transparency Directive may reshape wages and the gender pay gap
Equal pay for equal work has been a core EU principle since 1957, yet women across Europe continue to earn less than men, even in very similar jobs. As EU countries begin implementing the new Pay Tran...
cepr.org
Under the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance, the USSR assisted China in constructing 149 large industrial facilities – so-called “Million-Rouble Plants” – in the 1950s. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Place-based industrial policies in the long run
There is growing evidence that place-based industrial policies lead to positive economic effects. This column analyses the “Million-Rouble Plants” programme of the 1950s when the Soviet Union helped C...
cepr.org
In April, the World Bank projected energy prices to surge by 24% this year, after attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered what it described as the largest oil supply shock on record cepr.org/voxeu/column...
How oil price shocks redraw the map of conflict
Oil price shocks do not simply make conflict more likely everywhere; they change where violence happens. Using monthly georeferenced data for 131 low- and middle-income countries from 1989 to 2021, th...
cepr.org
More than a decade after its creation, the banking union remains incomplete. Supervision has been centralised, and a common resolution framework has been created, but deposit insurance remains national. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Achieving a European Banking Union without increasing risks
European banking remains fragmented, leaving billions of euros inefficiently allocated. Reforms to establish a European deposit insurance system have been proposed to allow cross-border banking groups...
cepr.org
Access to lifelong learning opportunities remains limited and unequal. Globally, only 16% of workers engaged in structured learning in the last 12 months: at around 15% in lower-middle- and upper-middle-income countries and around 17% in low-income and high-income countries cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Lifelong learning is becoming increasingly important in response to labour market transformations
As digital, environmental, and demographic transformations reshape labour markets, skills influence who benefits from these changes and who falls behind. This column presents the findings of an Intern...
cepr.org
Capital mobility has been legally guaranteed within the EU since the 1993 Maastricht Treaty. Yet de facto integration remains strikingly limited. Cross-border loans to firms account for only 1% of all euro area loans and for just 5.6% of total euro area lending since 2019. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Why Europe's banks stay home: Regulatory fragmentation and the cost of an incomplete banking union
Despite major institutional reforms, the European Banking Union remains incomplete. Banking markets remain fragmented along national lines, which constrains Europe’s growth potential. This column uses...
cepr.org
Research finds that long stretches of populist rule leave a deep mark: after 15 years with populist leaders, GDP per capita is on average about 10% lower than under a non‐populist counterfactual cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Don’t drain the swamp! Populism, bureaucracy, and economic performance
Populist leaders increasingly cast public sector experts, oversight bodies, and career civil servants as illegitimate ‘elites’ standing in the way of the popular will. But bureaucratic institutions ma...
cepr.org
The sample covers 29 large Russian refineries from June 2022 to May 2026. Twenty-two sustain at least one verified direct hit. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
After the fire: How Ukrainian strikes disrupt local economies around Russian refineries
Measuring the local economic effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries is difficult because reliable local data are scarce and both information and statistics are tightly contr...
cepr.org
Catch my monthly slot at 9:15ET on the big business news #siriusxm #bizbriefing
#BREAKING: Spain forward Ferran Torres celebrates scoring his team's first goal during the 2026 World Cup final, putting European Champions 1-0 up ahead against Argentina in the second period of extra time.
"When these England players appeared on the pitch some 90 minutes before kick-off here in the intense Miami heat, they did cut the figure of a tour group that had just been dropped at the wrong airport terminal." Saka hat-trick in best World Cup finish since 1966 www.thetimes.com/sport/footba...
Bukayo Saka hat-trick helps England restore some pride in crazy thriller
France 4 England 6: Side nearly blow 4-0 lead but Arsenal winger, with goals from Declan Rice, Ezri Konsa and Jude Bellingham, helps seal best World Cup finish since 1966
thetimes.com
70 episodes across 51 economies from 1980-2024 excluding crisis-driven adjustments in which cyclically adjusted current account balances move by at least 3 percentage points of GDP & are sustained for at least 3 years, with at least half the adjustment maintained afterwards cepr.org/voxeu/column...
How large current account imbalances unwind: Evidence from historical adjustment episodes
Global imbalances are back in the policy debate. This column examines 70 current account adjustment episodes across 51 economies from 1980 to 2024 to discover how large imbalances have unwound in the ...
cepr.org
In Greece, the most notable pattern is broad-based catch-up: GDP has moved above its pre-Covid trend, investment has risen sharply from a low base, and TFP contribution is strong. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
The macroeconomic impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility: An analysis for Italy, Spain, and Greece
The EU Recovery and Resilience Facility was launched to support post-Covid recovery while accelerating structural transformation through investment and reform. This column provides a preliminary descr...
cepr.org
Marketing authorisation has been centralised at the European Medicines Agency since 2004, and clinical assessment is being progressively unified. Yet the decisions that determine whether and when patients are treated, like price and reimbursement, remain strictly national. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Harmonising access and reinventing the procurement of innovative medicines in Europe
Europe pays for innovative medicines through 27 uncoordinated national negotiations, generating access delays, cross-country pricing externalities, and a weak position vis-à-vis both pharmaceutical fi...
cepr.org