Lisbon Macro Workshop

@lisbonmacro.bsky.social

Webpage: https://nicjkoz.com/LisbonMacro/

Seho Kim shows that lowering the economic cost of unemployment encourages workers to join riskier startups, increasing experimentation & productivity growth. In a firm dynamics model with labor frictions, lower vacancy creation costs further raise aggregate productivity.

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‪@lpvisschers.bsky.social‬ documents that year-to-year earnings growth is cyclically skewed: flows & their returns shift over the cycle, especially in the tails. Occupational moves matter most and upward mobility is much higher in expansions.

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Jenny Ding maps households consumption into goods skill-intensity, showing that consumption has shifted toward skill intensive goods over time. A multi-industry GE model with K-skill complementarity decomposes rising wage inequality: 82% due to K accumulation.

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Harun Alp presents a novel model of innovation and firm dynamics with occupational choice: transformative entrepreneurs who hire ≥1 R&D worker differ sharply from those who don’t. The framework helps evaluate how education, startup, & R&D policies affect talent allocation.

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Tom Schmitz shows that ICT & AI spark a life cycle in downstream industries: early surge in entry & product innovation, later shift to process innovation & shakeout. Diffusion isn’t optimal: welfare improves by taxing process and subsidizing product innovation.

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‪@luciacasal.bsky.social‬ documents that firms increasingly pursue lock-in innovations with high private but low social value, rising markups. Taxing such innovations may boost productivity but is hard to implement; taxing markups is feasible and productivity enhancing, but raises markup dispersion.

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