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Lucas Novaes

@lmnovaes.bsky.social

Associate professor, Insper. Political economy, comparative politics. UC Berkeley grad. www.lucasmnovaes.com

97 Posts1013 Follower388 Folgt
AEA Journals@aeajournals.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Landing on Water: Air Interdiction, Drug-Trafficking Displacement, and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon" by Leila Pereira, Rafael Pucci, and Rodrigo R. Soares.

Landing on Water: Air Interdiction, Drug-Trafficking Displacement, and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon

(Forthcoming Article) - We study a Force-down/Shoot-down intervention in Brazil that led cocaine traffickers to shift from air to river routes. Using data on cocaine production, homicides, and the network of rivers in the Amazon, we provide evidence that violence increased in municipalities along river routes originating from Andean producing countries after the policy. We also show that, during the same period, violence in these municipalities became more responsive to cocaine production in origin countries. We document an instance of crime displacement over the three-dimensional space, involving sophisticated adaptations from criminals regarding transportation technologies, with dramatic side-effects for local populations.

aeaweb.org

Vincent Pons@vinpons.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Very happy to share our new paper on “The Global Incumbency Advantage”! 👇👇 We provide the first estimates of the incumbency advantage at the national level for all elections worldwide since 1945. with Raphaël Descamps, Ben Marx and @vincent-rollet.bsky.social. Short 🧵 below (1/n).

NBER@nber.org · 5mo ago

On average national election winners benefit from an incumbency advantage, but this effect is short-lived and differs markedly across contexts, from Raphaël Descamps, Benjamin Marx, @vinpons.bsky.social, and Vincent Rollet www.nber.org/papers/w34968

Lucas Novaes@lmnovaes.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Essa manchete é engraçada porque subentende-se que o Congresso está apreensivo não porque há uma possível rede de corrupção, mas sim porque a rede de corrupção vai se tornar visível.

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Lucas Novaes@lmnovaes.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Analyslop is correct, and there are many like this memo. They all fantasize how AI will disrupt jobs, but they (and contrarians) never make up scenarios about how AI will create new human jobs (as all tech revolutions did) because maybe this time is indeed different?

Ed Zitron@edzitron.com · 5mo ago

Here is an annotated version of the Citrini Memo with my own intro. It is analyslop - scare-fiction written to ingratiate AI boosters and analysts/traders with tales of ultra-automation and socialist data center policies. Shameful that the markets reacted at all. www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/1p1n0...

Lucas Novaes@lmnovaes.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Eu pedi pro Claude fazer o mesmo gráfico per capita (estimando mais ou menos os dados absolutos usando o gráfico da Ponte Jornalismo)

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Ponte Jornalismo@ponte.org · 6mo ago

5) A análise por estados reforça o caráter nacional do problema. A Bahia, governada pelo petista Jerônimo Rodrigues, lidera em números absolutos as mortes por intervenção policial em 2025. O estado nordestino é seguido por São Paulo, onde o bolsonarista Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) comanda.

Lucas Novaes@lmnovaes.bsky.social · 8mo ago

My first thought was that the “gentleman” was Bolsonaro, but on twitter, the Brazilian reporter asking the question is skeptical; thinks Trump was referring to someone else. She (Raquel Krähenbühl) followed up with Leavitt the next day, who said she wasn’t aware of any call btw the two.

Radley Balko@radleybalko.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Pretty convincing evidence here that the Trump administration was planning to jailbreak and provide asylum for Bolsonaro -- and that Trump inadvertently revealed the plan. And this, as the now-cliche goes, would have been a paralyzing scandal for any other administration.

Jorge Peña 🇵🇸@jorgeapenas.bsky.social · 11mo ago

📢 Apply to our (2-year) research fellowships at @iast.fr Join a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, transdisciplinary, and indisciplinary group of scholars in Toulouse, walkable/cyclable pink city of chocolatines in the South of France. Deadline: November 15, 2025. www.iast.fr/research-fel...

Research Fellowships

Each year, IAST invites applications for post-doctoral Research Fellowships, which offer candidates an opportunity to devote themselves full-time to their research at the start of their careers. Fello...

iast.fr

Lucas Novaes@lmnovaes.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Word of caution: the push to win votes on the pervasive anti-corruption sentiment in Latin America did not go well. OC is different, but likely the Dems would end up carried away by the anti-establishment wave (the PSDB - major national player in Brazil since 1994 is all but gone)

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · 10mo ago

I’m starting to notice a trend in the polling data… —Top Public Worry: Corruption —Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption —Top fear: Corruption —What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt” It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.

Top 10 American Fears of 2024 (Chapman Survey) Horizontal bar chart ranking the top fears of Americans (percentage “afraid” or “very afraid”): 1. Corrupt government officials (65.2%, top fear for years). 2. Loved ones becoming seriously ill (58.4%). 3. Cyberterrorism (58.3%). 4. Loved ones dying (57.8%). 5. Russia using nuclear weapons (55.8%). 6. Not having enough money for the future (55.7%). 7. U.S. becoming involved in another world war (55.0%). 8. North Korea using nuclear weapons (55.0%). 9. Terrorist attack (52.7%). 10. Biological warfare (52.5%). Red bars display percentages; small arrows indicate change from 2023 rankings.