Lorna McKellar
@lornamckellar.bsky.social
PhD researcher. Thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management. Bangor School of Ocean Sciences, CDT SuMMeR. Marine policy, ecosystem assessment, interdisciplinary research.
🌊 New paper by Jonathan Heath @sosbangor.bsky.social 🦞 ⚓ Anchoring pressure on the seabed can be estimated from AIS ship tracking data Pressure can be mapped to highlight spatial hotspots Significant pressure levels revealed in a designated conservation area www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
🌊 New paper by @lornamckellar.bsky.social 🪸 Expert elicitation (IDEA protocol) gives a transparent way to set 'good status' thresholds — but we need agreement on what 'good' means for consistent use across indicators & regions. academic.oup.com/icesjms/arti...
Defining thresholds for good environmental status using structured expert elicitation
Abstract. Thresholds for good status are required under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the UK Marine Strategy (UKMS) to assess if go
academic.oup.com
The #WKBENTH4 documents the underpinning data, analyses and papers. ices-library.figshare.com/articles/rep... This paper on the Bottom Trawl Impacts on Seabed Communities in European Seas has been essential for scaling up to Europe wide predictions onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Workshop to evaluate options for setting seafloor quality thresholds (WKBENTH4)
The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires Member States to achieve good environmental status (GES) across their marine waters. The European Commission (EC) has requested ICES advice on the application of operational methods to support the TG Seabed proposal for quality thresholds for seafloor integrity (MSFD Descriptor 6, Criterion D6C5) in EU marine waters.The scientific findings generated by Workshop to evaluate options for setting seafloor thresholds (WKBENTH4) provide the technical basis for ICES to develop formal advice in response to the EC request, following an independent peer-review process.Worked examples were developed from an ICES data call compiling reference‑condition time series and pressure–state gradient datasets, either specifically focused on a specific pressure or of large spatial extent stratified by MSFD broad habitat type (Sections 2, 5 and 6). Six threshold methods were compared using ten criteria addressing their scientific basis, data and uncertainty, operational practicality, and management applicability (Section 7). This allowed Quality Threshold Values (QTVs) to be estimated for six indicators including biodiversity metrics (Species richness and Relative Margalef diversity), the most sensitive species fraction for the pressure of concern (Sentinals of the Seabed), and the total abundance/ biomass and sensitive species biomass based on longevity of species.Results showed (in Section 7) that QTVs varied more among indicators than among methods, indicating that indicator choice has a strong effect on threshold outcomes, more so than method selection. Integrating multiple indicators remains challenging (Section 8), however a comparative analysis of different threshold and indicator combinations for broad-habitat types (Section 7) revealed all selected QTV methods and indicators have value in establishing quality thresholds. Accordingly, it was concluded that the integration of indicators and QTV methods (Section 8) would benefit from a proposed multi‑level quality‑extent approach or framework that can utilise all available evidence most appropriate for the available data in a given region.A workflow was developed for selecting QTV methods based on data availability and threshold approach, applicable beyond the methods and indicators evaluated. These outputs support national and regional assessments of seafloor impacts, and three example implementation path-ways were presented (Section 7).WKBENTH4 concluded (Section 9) that “good condition” under the Nature Restoration Regulation (NRR) is broadly equivalent to Good Environmental Status (GES) under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for benthic habitat types (Group 7). The assessment and threshold-setting methods developed for MSFD Descriptor 6 provide a practical and scientifically robust basis for evaluating habitat condition, supporting restoration monitoring, and strengthening cross-policy coherence between the MSFD and NRR. Notably, at least one of the approaches enables estimation of ecological recovery times under specific conditions, providing valuable information for monitoring design and assessment of progress over time.The findings of WKBENTH4 collectively provide an operational, evidence-based pathway for setting and applying quality thresholds that can support coherent implementation of both MSFD and NRR objectives across EU marine waters.
ices-library.figshare.com
The advice is underpinned by the PhD work of @lornamckellar.bsky.social, and this recent paper has been particularly important, showing how we can predict thresholds for good state based on depth and longevity of the benthic community. besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Estimating ecological thresholds for good status using natural variation in reference conditions
The framework outlined here presents a transparent, robust, scalable and pressure-independent approach to estimate the probability of an ecosystem component being in good status for a range of marine...
besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Great to see the @icesmarine.bsky.social advice on how to define Good Environmental State for seabed integrity, including examples on how the implement this using our WGFBIT outputs. ices-library.figshare.com/articles/rep...
Excited to say my 2nd phd paper has been published! We used natural variation in ecological time series to estimate thresholds --> identify relationships with environmental gradients (eg. depth) --> use threshold distributions to estimate probability of being in good status doi.org/10.1111/1365...
Jan Geert Hiddink@jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 4mo ago🌊🦞 Better tools for ocean health assessment! 🪱🪸 @lornamckellar.bsky.social's new paper delivers a robust, scalable & pressure-independent way to estimate the probability of good ecosystem status across marine systems. besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... 🧪
🌊🦞 Better tools for ocean health assessment! 🪱🪸 @lornamckellar.bsky.social's new paper delivers a robust, scalable & pressure-independent way to estimate the probability of good ecosystem status across marine systems. besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... 🧪
Don't be shy to take on a little two-week side project. These five months will be the most precious three years of your academic journey.
Very excited to have been given this award for my PhD work on setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management. Thank you to The Drapers, and a special thank you to Jan, my lead supervisor, who's guidance, encouragement, and support has been invaluable throughout this process.
Jan Geert Hiddink@jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 6mo agoCongrats to @lornamckellar.bsky.social on the award of the Drapers' company medal for an outstanding research student! It has been a pleasure working with Lorna and she's made a lot of progress in defining 'good environmental state'. www.bangor.ac.uk/news/2026-03...
Two funded PhD projects (one open to international applicants) with us at @lec-reefs.bsky.social - please pass on to potential applicants
Tim Lamont@timlamont.bsky.social · 9mo ago🚨 Two funded PhDs (one int'l, one UK) - study coral restoration & corporate sustainability with us in Lancaster! Enquiries welcome, January 30, please share widely! 🚨 🪸🐠 Coral restoration (int'l): www.findaphd.com/phds/project... 🌴📊 Corporate sustainability (UK): www.findaphd.com/phds/project...
I'll be giving the @jncc.bsky.social science talk today at 1pm GMT, summarising my PhD work which has been looking at setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-joi...
Reflecting on a busy but exciting two weeks at @icesmarine.bsky.social in CPH focused on estimating quality thresholds for good status of benthic ecosystems (Seafloor Integrity). One of the best parts of my PhD is getting to collaborate and discuss ideas with others - esp. over good food
A great day for the annual SOS beach trip with the new undergraduate students @bangoruniversity.bsky.social. Sandcastles were built, beach pictionary played, and much fun had by students new and old, and staff.
Photographs of #FishingCommunities always speak to my heart. These are from Lithuania’s Curonian Spit. One of the highlights of #ICESASC25 getting to view these at the conference dinner. 🇱🇹🐟
Starting the last day of my travel back from the #ICESASC25 in Lithuania (train ferry combo). The travel was fairly cheap with interrail with the ferry was only £126 return. But it does take 3 days 🙂 @sosbangor.bsky.social @icesmarine.bsky.social
Great talk on using historical sources to map herring spawning grounds by @georginahunt.bsky.social for @projectfishistory.bsky.social.
Really enjoyed presenting my PhD work at #icesasc25 in Klaipeda, Lithuania - even at 9am the day after the conference dinner
Jan Geert Hiddink@jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 12mo agoGreat presentation by @lornamckellar.bsky.social from @sosbangor.bsky.social on how to distinguish between good and degraded state in marine ecosystems #icesasc25
Great talk by Daniel van Denderen showing that fishing had resulted in an explosion of small pelagics #icesasc2025
'Notably, 11 out of 24 state features/criteria were not assessed in over half of the ecoregions' - my PhD work is evaluating methods for estimating thresholds for good status to address gaps in state assessments e.g., for GES under the #MSFD and #UKMS
Athanasios Nikolaou@thanasisnikolaou.bsky.social · last yr.Our article “What do we know about the state of European seas?” is now out in @consletters.bsky.social. In this study, we used all available #MSFD assessments to unveil the status of European Seas. @drangelborja.bsky.social @skatsanevakis.bsky.social Find the article link at the post’s end.
Study on the prediction of approaching #tippingpoints Research team recommends: Warnings of approaching #climate tipping points using statistical early warning signals have to be taken with a grain of salt ➡️ www.marum.de/en/Study-on-...
Study on prediction of approaching tipping points
marum.de
New paper out from @duncanobrien.bsky.social, will be particular interesting to those of you trying to understand #stability loss in real-world ecosystems "Stability metrics behave predictably across data qualities but are sensitive to community size" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Stability metrics behave predictably across data qualities but are sensitive to community size
Modern biodiversity monitoring is generating increasingly multidimensional representations of wildlife populations and ecosystems. It is therefore app…
sciencedirect.com
‘Taking the further step of correctly portraying scientific consensus as convergent evidence rather than scientists’ opinions will further the goal of showing why vetted and validated science is a crucial ingredient of policy decisions around the world.’
Science Magazine@science.org · last yr."One concept that creates misunderstanding is 'scientific consensus.' It’s time to stop using this shorthand and make clear what it really means," argues @holdenthorp.bsky.social in a new #ScienceEditorial. scim.ag/4jH2WxK
Only 9% of journalists working for national and transnational media come from a working class background.
New survey shows the extent of class privilege in UK journalism
Only 9% of journalists working for national and transnational media come from a working class background.
tcnv.link
(Not intentionally) but on this #earthday I presented my PhD work at my first webinar series. We had a great turnout and some interesting questions around the application of methods for estimating thresholds and the use of reference conditions. Thanks to the #SMMR organiser team for having me on 🌍
Lorna McKellar@lornamckellar.bsky.social · last yr.I'll be presenting my PhD work tomorrow online at 1pm BST for the SMMR webinar series - 'setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management' - free to join www.smmr.org.uk/event/smmr-n...
I'll be presenting my PhD work tomorrow online at 1pm BST for the SMMR webinar series - 'setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management' - free to join www.smmr.org.uk/event/smmr-n...
SMMR-Net Webinar "Setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management" - Sustainable Management of Marine Resources
Another free lunchtime Webinar, hosted by the Sustainable Management of UK Marine Resources Programme (SMMR).
smmr.org.uk
RESTORATION of marine habitats & species: just out @icesmarine.bsky.social workshop report on enhancing understanding of restoration processes, success criteria, & factors affecting recovery rates. Pleased to have contributed to this useful new resource doi.org/10.17895/ice...
