Lucian Kim

@luciankim.bsky.social

Senior Ukraine Analyst @crisisgroup.org, former correspondent based in Berlin and Moscow, author of @columbiaup.bsky.social book on why Russia invaded Ukraine, soon in paperback. Rarely seen on social media.

The frantic round of musical chairs unleashed by Zelensky's government reshuffle continues: -After weeks of speculation, Ukraine's ambassador in Washington goes; -Umerov now moves to foreign intelligence; -Fedorov still without a chair. TBC www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...

Zelenskyy dismisses Stefanishyna as Ukraine's ambassador to US

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed Olha Stefanishyna from her post as Ukraine's ambassador to the United States.

pravda.com.ua

"There is growing demand for realistic assessment of Russia's geopolitical capabilities, competent domestic decision-making and achievable war goals," Tatiana Stanovaya says. "This is dangerous for regime precisely because it is neither anti-war nor anti-Putin." carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Russia Is Approaching a Political Crossroads

Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart.

carnegieendowment.org

Zelensky faces serious risks. Fedorov is associated with Ukraine's new momentum on the battlefield, and if Ukraine faces new setbacks, Zelensky will carry the blame. At the same time, he has created a potential new domestic rival out of his ex-minister. www.crisisgroup.org/anb/europe/u...

Ukraine’s Tensions on Show after Zelenskyy Reshuffles His War Leaders | International Crisis Group

Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim assesses the reasons behind the dismissal of the defence minister and armed forces chief, and what this bodes for the war with Russia.

crisisgroup.org

Hard to say how Fedorov's dismissal will affect Ukraine's military strategy, but risks are clear. Fedorov is associated with Ukraine's new momentum in middle and deep drone strikes. If that initiative is lost, Ukraine will face setbacks—and blame will fall squarely on Zelensky.

By reshuffling his government, Zelensky made a most fateful decision. His firing of the popular defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, has brought long simmering tensions out into the open. It has led to a political crisis that will be hard to defuse.

If recent NATO summits were exercises in frustration for Ukraine, Zelensky managed to flip the script in Ankara, holding a warm, often jocular meeting with Trump that contrasted with their clash in the Oval Office a year and a half ago:

Bild

On my last visit to Kyiv, @luciankim.bsky.social & I were struck by a somewhat different tone among Ukrainians. New developments have made many of those we met with cautiously optimistic, even as they expect war to continue, & substantial challenges also remain. We lay out what we learned here:

A New Tone and Better Cards in Kyiv | International Crisis Group

After four-plus years of war, Ukraine aims to show it can inflict more pain than Russia is willing to absorb to achieve the Kremlin’s objectives. Ukrainians increasingly believe that this goal is atta...

crisisgroup.org

How convenient that Hungary blocks Ukraine—convenient for a long list of EU countries that are at loggerheads with Ukraine over agriculture, industry, trade, even history. Reality check: Ukraine may not be ready for EU, but EU is hardly ready for Ukraine. kyivindependent.com/hungary-doub...

Hungary doubles down on Orban-era ban of Ukrainian agriculture

"We will not allow Ukrainian or any other imported product to endanger the livelihood of Hungarian farmers and the supply of healthy food to the Hungarian people," said the country's agriculture minis...

kyivindependent.com

Just back from Kyiv. The mood was the least pessimistic I've felt in the last couple of years. Spring weather helps after a brutal winter of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. Here are a few takeaways on where Ukraine stands right now:

Bild

Every time I come to Ukraine, people asks me how the war ends, as if I were some kind of oracle. What I can say for sure is that sometimes it’s useful to take a step back for perspective:

Bild

An unpleasant truth is mentioned in Lithuania's latest national security threat report, namely that Russia can't become a military threat to the Baltics (or the rest of Europe) as long as its bogged down in Ukraine. www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...

Lithuanian intelligence says Russia won’t threaten NATO while Ukraine war continues

Lithuania’s intelligence services say the country’s security is closely linked to the course of Russia’s war against Ukr...

lrt.lt