For the Colorado River, 2026 is one for the record books--in a bad way. NOAA CBRFC's May 1st (50% exc) forecast now has Lake Powell April-July inflows at 800 KAF, 13% of average, lower than 2002. Powell got 2200 KAF of inflows Oct 1 - April 1, making 2026 an abnormally "front-loaded" water year.

The take-home from this plot is roughly correct: In 2026, U.S. wildfires through March have burned >twice the average area burned. But the "wildfire" dataset shown is based on MODIS sat images and lumps wildfires with prescribed (Rx) burns. Rx burns account for ~2/3 of annual US area burned (1/2)

Ryan Katz-Rosene, PhD@ryankatzrosene.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Holy smokes! An incredible start to the 'Wildfire Season' in the US this year - owing to an abnormally hot and snowless winter in some parts of the country.

March was...not helpful. NOAA CBRFC's April 1st (50% exceedance) forecast now has Lake Powell April-July inflows at 1400 KAF, 22% of average. Only 2002 (963 KAF) and 1977 (1208 KAF) ended up with lower inflows than that. If dry conditions continue through spring, 2026 could drop below 2002.

NOAA CBRFC's Mar 1st official forecast for Lake Powell April-July inflows is out, so here's an update of my "spaghetti" plot. Despite better snowfall in February, the most-probable forecast remains bleak at 36% of average. Even an unusually wet Mar-May would only get us to ~65% of average.

The mountain snowpack so far this winter is in bad shape. Long-time Coloradans might remember two other terrible winters for snow: 1976-77 and 1980-81. Our latest blog post takes a look at how this year compares to those snow droughts of the past. #cowx

How does this year compare to the snow droughts of the past? - Colorado Climate Blog

Colorado’s mountain snowpack is in bad shape this year. It’s been extremely warm, and snowstorms have been few and far between. Based on data from the SNOTEL network, the amount of water stored in the...

climate.colostate.edu

Given the latest NOAA CBRFC inflow forecast for Lake Powell, I dusted off this plot from my Twitter days and updated it. The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely. h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social

The true "why?" of this story is a little buried: This is part of Trump's retaliation against CO Gov. Polis for his recent refusal to pardon state-convicted 2020 election conspirator Tina Peters. An egregiously impulsive and reckless move with far-reaching consequences for the nation.

USA TODAY@usatoday.com · 8mo ago

Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.

In case you were wondering, this is a completely normal way for a federal department (Agriculture) to communicate the status of its online services during a government shutdown.

This is fucking insane. Closing these NOAA labs would obliterate our ability to observe, understand, and forecast the Earth System, from weather systems tomorrow to sea levels 50 years from now.

Zack Labe@zacklabe.com · last yr.

What a tragedy this is even being proposed on paper... 💔 NOAA FY2026 Congressional Justification: www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...

Succinct illustration of increasing exposure leading to greater risk and loss. This is in the southeast fringe of the Denver metro area, about 8 mi east of Parker.

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · last yr.

Here's the track of the first EF-2 tornado from Sunday (Elkhorn Ranch, NW Elbert County) overlaid on the landscape as it was in 2004, and today. 20+ years ago, it would've been over open country, but now it tore through a neighborhood. Almost certainly would not have been (E)F2 in the past. #cowx

DOGE arrived at NOAA this morning. There was no notice. Joe Neguse is on his way, and Attorney General Phil Weisner will be arriving soon. If there is any way you can attend the Peaceful Protest, please turn out ASAP. 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305

The USGCRP was created by Pres. Bush in 1989 and tasked by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to coordinate federal research and produce a quadrennial assessment: the NCA. Crippling the USGCRP is yet another abuse of power that undermines our nation's readiness for the future.

Julian Reyes@julianjonreyes.bsky.social · last yr.

I'm devastated and heartbroken. Staff at the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) got the ax. Most likely means the Sixth National Climate Assessment (NCA6) is also cooked. USGCRP was the glue across the Federal family on all things climate - reducing duplication and making efficiencies.

Agreed--the 'Anthropocene' ship has long sailed, and it doesn't need the stratigraphers on board in order to sustain its mission: Communicating that humans have massively impacted everything on Earth.

Adam Csank@acsank.bsky.social · last yr.

I would argue that we don’t really need to have a defined geological period as the Anthropocene, and that the Anthropocene is much more useful as a concept than as a specific geological period.

This is beyond insane. The Forest Service's top-notch research arm is vital to managing the nation's National Forests--and to the many public benefits that extend well beyond the forests' boundaries, including watersheds and water supply, wildlife populations, wildfire mitigation and safety...

Huge turnout today outside the NOAA building in Boulder (also next to NIST & NTIA, with NCAR just up the hill). Uplifting to be part of it, but also depressing as hell that it's necessary. While there I talked with 3 just-illegally-fired NOAA folks, no doubt there were others.

Kristine ❌👑@extrasuperkk.bsky.social · last yr.

Hundreds protested at the national labs today in Boulder, Colorado. #SaveOurServices #resist #NOAA #NIST #NCAR #ScienceSavesLives

Great read: CO state climatologist and Wx forecasting guru @russ-schumacher.bsky.social on how modeling and forecasts of big CO snowstorms have improved since the monster March '03 event. While the modeling has improved *a lot* in 20 years, the expertise of human forecasters is still critical.

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 2y ago

Had some fun looking back at forecasts of the epic March 2003 Colorado snowstorm, and how things have changed since then. #cowx climate.colostate.edu/blog/index.p...

In @edyong209.bsky.social's excellent photo, we can see that Greater Roadrunners display the warming stripes for their locale--in this case, Arizona. Who knew? #showyourstripes

Ed Yong@edyong209.bsky.social · 2y ago

Close-up of the roadrunner showing the beautiful red and blue facial patch 😍🪶

The sign of an incorrigible water nerd: I immediately converted the lava effusion rate into both cubic feet/second and acre-feet/day. That's 3500-7000 cfs of lava or 7000-14,000 acre-feet of lava per day which would take 4.5 to 9 years to fill Lake Powell with lava

Marco Bagnardi@marcobagnardi.bsky.social · 3y ago

Eruption on Reykjanes Peninsula (Iceland) According to Kristín Jónsdóttir (Icelandic Met Office) the fissure is ~3.5 km long, with an effusion rate of 100-200 cubic meters/second. Source: RÚV.