I’m very happy that our paper “Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs,” with Kai Carstensen, Stefan Lautenbacher, @manuelmenkhoff.bsky.social, and Martin Schneider, has now been published in the American Economic Review. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs

(August 2026) - This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new panel survey of German manufacturing firms, we observe both forecasts of sales growth and a quantitative measure of sub...

aeaweb.org

Ich freue mich, dass unser Aufsatz „Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs" mit Kai Carstensen, Stefan Lautenbacher, @manuelmenkhoff.bsky.social und Martin Schneider nun in der American Economic Review erschienen ist. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs

(August 2026) - This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new panel survey of German manufacturing firms, we observe both forecasts of sales growth and a quantitative measure of sub...

aeaweb.org

New 📄 “Belief Updating and AI Adoption: Experimental Evidence from Firms” ✍️ @manuelmenkhoff.bsky.social The study highlights the role of expectations, strategic considerations, and informational frictions in shaping technology diffusion and its macroeconomic impact. 🔗 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...

In new paper with @leabest.bsky.social and @bborn.bsky.social we unpack the ‘impact of interest’: how borrowing costs directly shape firms’ investment, from micro to macro.

I'm happy to share that I've successfully submitted my dissertation this week! I'm also thrilled to announce that I'll join the University of Copenhagen as an Assistant Professor this summer. @econmunich.bsky.social

📢 I am on the academic job market 🌐 sites.google.com/view/manuelm... In my JMP, I study firms’ beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. JMP thread below👇

Manuel Menkhoff

Hi! I am Manuel Menkhoff, a PhD candidate in Economics at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU) and ifo Institute in Munich. In winter 2023, I was a visiting Ph.D. student at Stanford University. Rese...

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