Marc Champion
@marcchampion1.bsky.social
Marc Champion is a columnist writing on international affairs at Bloomberg. All views are my own. Re-posts are not endorsements
There are good reasons to be cynical about the new roadmap to Hamas's disarmament and peace in Gaza. There's a better reason to try making it work. My column for @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Trump’s Gaza Roadmap Needs Heroic Optimism to Succeed
If the world of international affairs had self-help books, this year’s bestseller might be titled How to Find Hope When It’s Hopeless. There are so many examples for it to include, from peace in Ukrai...
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🇺🇸🚀 According to CSIS analysts, before the start of hostilities in Iran on February 27, the US had 2,330 Patriot missiles and 452 THAAD missiles, but as of July 27, their stocks had fallen to 759-827 and 234-278 units, respectively.
The US and Israel went into their war with Iran in lock step, but their interests were never the same that now shows, presenting Netanyahu with a tough dilemma of his own making. My column for Bloomberg Opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The US and Israel Can't Hide Their Differences on Iran
No wonder Donald Trump swore at his supposed friend and ally Benjamin Netanyahu last week. Within days of that June 1 phone call, Israel and Iran were back on track for the kind of military escalation...
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Trump just said Iran's stock of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium is safe where it is, and he only needs it moved for PR reasons. That would be a terrible reason to end a ceasefire. My column for @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Did Trump Just Say He’s at War For PR Reasons?
While in China, Donald Trump said the pile of 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium that were at the heart of his justification for going to war with Iran is, in fact, safely under 24/7 surveillance b...
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The US is set to blockade the Strait of Hormuz to force it open. That only makes sense if Iran buckles under the pain first - which is highly unlikely. My column (no paywall) for Bloomberg @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The Hormuz Blockade Is a Throwdown the US Can't Win
For a man who understands the power of leverage, Donald Trump is being remarkably slow to recognize the influence Iran has gained in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president’s threat to complete its clo...
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Dwight Eisenhower warned against the search for absolute security through war. Trump and Netanyahu should heed the message in Iran and Lebanon. My column for Bloomberg @opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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The Iran war has hurt Kyiv because it's helping Moscow. But it has also revealed emerging Ukrainian strengths and a shrinking dependence on an unreliable US ally. My column for @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Ukraine Is Having a Surprisingly Good Iran War
Donald Trump’s decision to go to war in the Middle East has dealt a huge blow to Ukraine. It rescued Russia from a budget crisis, strained Kyiv’s debt-laden benefactors in Europe, ripped through stock...
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The best ally isn't one that leads you into a war that serves their interest but not yours. Sometimes is the one that says no. My column for Bloomberg Opinion on the Iran war. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
How Israel Went From ‘Model Ally’ to Cautionary Tale
Early in 2003, with the US still in shock over Al Qaeda’s 9/11 terrorist attacks, Washington called on allies to join it in going to war with Iraq. Some answered the call, but not France, which argued...
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Essential piece from my colleague @javierblas.bsky.social if you want to understand the oil price imperatives that face Trump around ending the #iranwar. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The White House's Oil-Restraint Toolbox Is Empty
Despite President Donald Trump’s blustering that America benefits when oil prices surge, crunch time is fast approaching for both the war and the energy market. He either ends the conflict quickly, or...
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Much has been made of Trump's policy waffling, but the bigger problem is the consistency of core beliefs he formed in the 1980s and is acting on now he can, 40 years later. My column for Bloomberg @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
We’re All Trapped in Trump’s 1980s Worldview
Take a moment to digest the following, quite extraordinary sequence of events.
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Trump knows the power of leverage, but not of asymmetry, which is the strength of weaker parties like Iran or Ukraine. He needs to learn fast. My column for Bloomberg Opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Trump Doesn’t Understand His Enemy. That Gives Iran an Edge.
Iran’s appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader has been likely since the day US-Israeli air strikes “martyred” his father. It became inevitable the moment Donald Trump said he’d be an “unacc...
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Kurdish fighters could enter Iran as the US/Israeli air attack's missing ground force. Sounds logical but it's reckless. Think Libya, think previous US use and abandonment of the Kurds. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Iran Could Be a ‘Forever War’ If the Kurds Join the Fight
You can’t accuse the US of mission creep one week into a war, especially when the initial goals for Operation Epic Fury were so broadly defined as to be unknowable. But taking President Donald Trump’s...
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The US goal for an Iran strike proved to be "Everything." But one aim will rule them all and that's regime change, making this an existential and unpredictable fight. My column for Bloomberg @opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Trump’s Ambitions for Iran Are Now Clear: He Wants Everything
US President Donald Trump never did explain to Congress or anyone else what his justifications and goals would be for attacking Iran. Now, with “Operation Epic Fury” underway, we know. The answer was ...
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Trump says he's stopped wars we never even knew were going to happen. I doubt that. But war is coming in Ethiopia again, so here's his chance. My column for Bloomberg Opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Here’s a War Trump Really Could — and Should — Prevent
Donald Trump is fond of saying wars don’t start on his watch and that he’s ended some we never knew possible. That’s at least up for debate, as the US president lays his finger on the trigger of anoth...
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Trump has let Putin weaponize the peace process for Ukraine. That can and must end. My column for Bloomberg @opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Putin Has Weaponized the Peace Talks. The US Can Stop Him
During the Biden administration, the most effective tool Russia’s President Vladimir Putin had to sustain his invasion of Ukraine proved to be his warnings of nuclear escalation, a tactic that prompte...
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Trump's Gaza peace plan is weird, but a start. Phase 2 needs elections to sweep out the old on both sides, plus an experiment: Releasing Marwan Barghouti - the one politician who could unite Palestinians - so he can run. My column for Bloomberg @opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
A Lasting Gaza Peace Needs Two Elections and One Prisoner Release
The remains of the final Israeli hostage Hamas abducted to Gaza during the group’s savage Oct. 7, 2023, attack on kibbutzim have now returned home. The event marks a turning point for the US-led peace...
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Europe is right to defend principles over Greenland, but this is about power and that's what Trump has and it lacks. My column for @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Europe Can’t Afford a Throwdown Over Greenland
As a US citizen living abroad, I sympathize with European outrage over Donald Trump’s naked attempt to bully Denmark, a particularly loyal NATO ally, into handing over Greenland. In fact, if he stays ...
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Trumps threats and pressure against Iran's regime at its moment of weakness are good policy. But don't imagine it's another Venezuela. My column for @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
America's Venezuela Playbook Won't Work in Iran
You know Iran’s leaders are worried about the implications of last weekend’s US raid in Venezuela when the editor of the hardline Javan newspaper feels he has to write a polemic — headlined Iran Is No...
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Venezuela marks the passing of the old US order, replaced by a free-for-all among the great powers. That's bad news for Greenland, Denmark and Europe as a whole. My column for Bloomberg Opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The Greenland Alarm Is Sounding. Europe Needs to Hear It
Denmark was worried about US intentions toward Greenland even before Donald Trump sent his troops and bombers into Venezuela over the weekend, but now the Danes are truly alarmed — and so they should ...
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To understand why Ukraine finds it so hard to give up territory, remember it's about everything but land. My column this morning. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...?
Ukraine’s Peace Deal Is Stuck on Territory for Good Reason
Of the two main sticking points in getting a deal to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that Kyiv, if not Moscow, can accept, there seems to have been a breakthrough on security guarantees. Territorial ...
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Ukraine hasn't lost the war, but it has lost the narrative and it's top commander knows that could lead to the same bad outcome. My column for Bloomberg @opinion. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Has Ukraine Lost the War? Its Top General Is Pushing Back
Over the past week, Ukraine’s top military commander has given his most detailed assessment yet of the fight to halt Russia’s invasion. This wasn’t prompted by any sudden battlefield reversal. It refl...
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The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy unites US with Russian policy against the EU; both see liberal Europe as an enemy that's better defeated when divided. My column for Bloomberg @opinion . www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Why Russia Loves the US National Security Strategy
Nothing about the Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy should shock European leaders, still less the enthusiastic welcome that this confirmation of a revolution in US foreign policy h...
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Israel's military has transformed the balance of power in the Middle East. But reliance on force is not improving security anymore. My column for Bloomberg @opinion shorturl.at/JPx4E
Trump Doesn’t Have to Be Bad News for Ukraine
His “peace-in-a-day” is ludicrous, but if he does the groundwork he can avoid capitulation and engineer a win.
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The EU is incapable by design of projecting the hard power required to compete in a geopolitical world, and yet Europe has to. The answer lies outside the bloc and in Ukraine's defense. My column for @opinion. shorturl.at/fKOz0
The EU Is the Wrong Power Player for Ukraine
Late in the summer of 1939, the Soviet and German Foreign Ministers Vyacheslav Molotov and Joachim von Ribbentrop signed the infamous non-aggression pact that divided Eastern Europe between their nati...
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Turkey's Erdogan looks a lot like he's realigning with the West latey, but in reality it's the West that's turning toward Erdogan. My column for Bloomberg Opinion shorturl.at/c1hWH
Erdogan and Putin Have Something to Teach the West
Turkey has recently taken a range of steps that together look a lot like a realignment with the West. It reduced imports of Russian oil and natural gas; is considering US and South Korean companies ov...
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Whether or not the apparently imminent fall of Pokrovsk proves an important Russian victory and worth the enormous price paid for it will depend on how Ukraine's allies respond. My column for Bloomberg @opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Ukraine’s Pokrovsk Is Falling. Don’t Make It a Defeat.
First Bakhmut, then Avdiivka, now Pokrovsk. In each of the last three years, Russia’s generals have identified a midsize Ukrainian town as their invasion’s next critical target, expending vast amounts...
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Putin has a plan for victory, and Kyiv has a plan to survive it. I returned to Ukraine to see what that is and how much it depends on inconstant allies. My column for Bloomberg @opinion shorturl.at/N9JPi
Ukraine Has a Plan for Victory. Its Allies Don’t.
Ukraine is about to suffer its most brutal winter since Russia invaded in 2022. That isn’t a risk but a certainty as both sides sense they’re blocked on the ground and focus on the long-range air war....
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Sanctions, seizing assets and the threat to arm Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles will only deter Putin if they're integrated into a coherent transatlantic strategy that shows genuine resolve. So far they don't. My column for Bloomberg @opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Sanctions or Tomahawks? Only Credible Threats Will Convince Putin.
Could the US imposition of sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies, backed by similar measures from Europe, mark the moment when the transatlantic alliance finally does what it takes to pressu...
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One phone call and Trump is back to pressing Ukraine into a deal crafted by Putin to further his war aims, not peace. Ukraine and Europe face some disastrous choices as a result. My column for Bloomberg @opinion www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Trump’s Peacemaking Is as Lethal for Ukraine as Ever
There’s every reason to believe leaked accounts that a shouting match erupted between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy when they met in Washington last week. We’ve seen it before, after all, on ca...
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The first rule of 'drone wall' is to change the name: It should be nothing like a wall and more like a Porcupine. The second is to build it with Ukraine. My column for Bloomberg @opinion. (Temporarily no pay wall) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Europe’s Most Important Startups Are in Ukraine
At the General Chereshnya drone factory, Maxym, a tattooed former aircraft engineer with ear tunnels the size of quarters in his lobes opens a door to the whirr and clatter of 74 busy 3D printers. The...
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