Mark Graph
@mark-graph.bsky.social
Data. Python. Economics. Social policy. Politics. Analysis. Australia. Not financial advice. Links tweets follows ≠ endorsement. https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/
Some light reading while you wait in the queue to vote. Two posts this morning: (1) Polls - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec... (2) Betting Market - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec... #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
Election day - polls
There are two posts this morning. This is the polls post, and separately there is a betting market update . Two-party preferred There is an ...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Updated aggregation and betting market charts - but the same story. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...
Day 36 - 2025 Federal Election
The election is tomorrow! Today we have two more polls: Freshwater strategy 51.5/48.5 to Labor, and DemosAU 51/49 to Labor. The aggregation...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Full post from Mark Graph on potential herding of opinion polls, D-minus 2 till voting ends #auspol #ausvotes marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...
Day 35 - 2025 Federal Electon
It looks like we are seeing some poll-herding in the lead-up to 2025 Election. Since yesterday's blog post, two more polls were released in ...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark Graph@mark-graph.bsky.social · last yr.This smells a little odd to me. About a 1 in 69 chance that the set of all national 2pp polls since 1 April (inclusive) occurred by chance. Is it herding? Is it resampling? I don't know. But I don't like it. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz
Latest Newspoll (52/48 Labor) suggests we are looking at a repeat of the last election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon #ausvotes marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 32 - 2025 Federal Election
Today we have a new Newspoll (52/48) in Labor's favour. The Bayesian aggregation is unchanged. We are looking at a result much like the prev...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
My analysis on how the Trump Trade Wars will unfold. markthegraph.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-t... #usa #trump #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
US Trade Wars
Analysis Trump is ideologically committed to tariffs, and short of disaster, is likely to end up with an increased tariff regime at the end ...
markthegraph.blogspot.com
A big movement to Labor in electorate betting. Labor is favourite in 77 seats (majority govt). Most-likely Parliament outcome is Labor on 72 seats (minority govt). #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 30 - 2025 Federal Election
At this point everyone expects Labor to form government following the election. The only question is whether it will be majority or minority...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Roy Morgan has Labor on 55.5% - better than any election result for Labor in the past 75 years. My aggregation is 52%, a similar result to the last election. #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com
Today we focus on those seats where independent candidates have a prospect of winning the seat. There are a few new names here that could surprise. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Newspoll 52/48 in Labor's favour. My aggregation of pollster Labor 2pp estimates is 51.9 per cent. If the polls are right, the election result will be close to the previous election. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 25 - 2025 Federal Election
We have another Newspoll , in which Labor has a two-party preferred (2pp) vote share of 52 per cent (which is the same result as the previou...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Election outcome odds and probabilities for every seat. Huge betting market update. More than 300 charts. It's all half price it's all got to go. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 23 - 2025 Federal Election
I have been refining my code for the individual seats market at Sportsbet.com.au . Before we get to the charts for every seat, let me take y...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Polls and the betting markets continue to move in Labor's favour. #ausvote #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 20 - 2025 Federal Election
Yesterday we had an Essential poll with Labor on 50 per cent 2pp, the Coalition on 45 per cent and 5 per cent undecided (which I make as 52....
marktheballot.blogspot.com
t is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this Labor government. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 19 - 2025 Federal Election
It is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Some movement on the individual seats market. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Updated poll aggregation charts following today's YpuGov (which had Labor 2pp at 52.5%). #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 15 - 2025 Federal Election
Today a YouGov poll was released. It had Labor on 52.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote share: a better result for Labor than the 2...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Complete set of charts for the individual seats market #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 13 - 2025 Federal Election
Today, let's look the complete set of charts from the individual seats market. Overall, we can see another net seat with Labor in the lead. ...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
(1) Another Morgan poll that seems out-of-step with the rest of the field. Out of caution, I am treating Morgan polls since mid-Feb as a different series. (2) Betting market firms to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 11 - 2025 Federal Election
Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 11 - 2025 Federal Election
Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
The complete set of individual seat betting market probabilities (from sportsbet.com.au) showing some movement to Labor over the past 24 hours. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
The betting market still sees it as a very close race, #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
A quick look at the number of individual seats the punters think each party will win at the 2025 Federal Election. Spoiler alert: the punters think no party will achieve the 76 seats needed for majority government. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/03/day-...
Day 4 - 2025 Federal Election
Today I am looking at the individual seat betting markets. These markets are tricky to analyse because of the favourite-longshot bias proble...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Today we take another look at betting markets for the next Federal Election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/03/day-...
Day 3 - 2025 Federal Election
Around lunchtime every day I take a snapshot of the odds for the winner of the next Federal Election at sportsbet . I use it as a barometer ...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Today I looked at the pollster two-party preferred estimates for the larger states and territories. A full set of charts are here: marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/03/day-... #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
Day 2 - Federal Election 2025
Today I spent some time looking at the published two-party preferred (2pp) opinion poll estimates for each of the Australian states and terr...
marktheballot.blogspot.com