Though non-confirmations are often rehabilitated, it’s important to recognize the conditions for a top. A narrow market is a vulnerable market. Great study from @LeutholdGroup.
Nothing unusual about small-cap underperformance, given secular bull-market regime. H/t BofA.
True story. I recently blocked an account for incivility. He scolded me for a bad call I made back in 2025. When I acknowledged the mistake, and showed him my revised view, he continued to litigate the issue. Crazy, right? But here’s the funny part. His initials are BS. 🤪
Black-box models should be: (a) Traded (b) Faded (c) Debated (d) Ignored I’ll have to go with (d) on this one, folks. 🤪
Word to the wise regarding October highs. Stops warranted, in my view. H/t @WayneWhaley1136
Mega-caps have shed this summer’s LAG-7 moniker. Higher highs in relative strength would support the case for renewed leadership.
Blockworthy behaviors: Ad hominem attacks; Obnoxious swagger; Overall jerkiness (unless it’s funny) Others?
Geek note: Zweig Breadth Thrust is virtually foreclosed, as it requires average advancing/total issues of ~77% over the next three sessions. Comment: ZBT typically signals new advances, but new advances don't require ZBT.
Nothing unhealthy about SPX price structure. Favoring upside resolution given constructive seasonality and proximity to April’s thrust, while adopting tight stops in recognition of today's price/breadth anomaly.
Nothing unhealthy about October's breadth momentum.
Daily thrills cause mainly spills. Prefer by far the weekly bar. –Max Adage
Rule 1: Don’t fight the tape Rule 2: Don’t forget rule 1
I’m perhaps the world’s worst Elliott wave practitioner, but I know enough to avoid what appears to be an impulsive wave-3 collapse.
1/ Historically rare price versus breadth is worth noting amid bullish price action, oversold internals, and favorable seasonality. How am I navigating? By adding equities while adopting tight stops in recognition of today’s price/breadth anomaly.
Mark Ungewitter@mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 2w agoNote to self. Today’s price/breadth configuration doesn’t preclude bull-market continuation, but does suggest exit planning.
“Avoid both doomsters and pom-pom boys” is the version I learned on the trading floor. 🤪
Mark Ungewitter@mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · last wk.Neither a doomsayer nor a cheerleader be. #PermaPragmatic
SPY gaps to new high. Needless to say, a strong close would be constructive.
A seasonal advance, if that’s what’s brewing, projects QQQ toward 887 based on 7-column sideways at 3% scale. 🤔
1/ SPX multi-decade trend channel offers three scenarios: 1) Imminent mean reversion; 2) Mean reversion following further overshoot, perhaps in the form of a classic Q4 rally; and 3) Durable new advance altering multi-decade behavior. 🧵
Bonds explained in just ten words. Kudos Jim Bianco!
