Forecast updated (www.martindevaux.com/forecast). Mélenchon is now battling Philippe quite seriously in the first round. The prediction depends strongly on whether Attal stays in the race, but also on whether the feeling that Philippe's moment has passed is confirmed.

A new poll by Harris Interactive finds that Mélenchon beats Philippe in the first round across candidate line-ups (including one without Attal). Philippe also does worse against MLP in the runoff, suggesting a real decline in support.

Updated. At this stage of the race (i.e., unless his runoff polling improves), the main impact of a better first-round performance by Mélenchon is to reduce the probability that Philippe (or anyone for that matter) wins against Le Pen.

Updated with the two-center-candidate line-up. www.martindevaux.com/forecast/

Update (www.martindevaux.com/forecast/)

I made a Bayesian poll-aggregation forecast model for the 2027 French presidential election: martindevaux.com/forecast/ This is work in progress, feedback and suggestions appreciated.