😀 Enter the amortized Bayesian workflow from here 👉 pipme.github.io/amortized-Ba... Huge thanks to my great collaborators: @avehtari.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com, @stefanradev.bsky.social, @lacerbi.bsky.social, @marvin-schmitt.com!

Amortized Bayesian Workflow

Adaptive Bayesian workflow combining amortized inference with PSIS and MCMC diagnostics.

pipme.github.io

Luigi Acerbi@lacerbi.bsky.social · 3mo ago

1/ Wouldn't it be nice if you could perform Bayesian inference *efficiently* but also *reliably*? Amortized inference offers the former, while MCMC is often presented as the "gold standard" for accuracy and reliability. Enter the Amortized Bayesian Workflow...

1/ Wouldn't it be nice if you could perform Bayesian inference *efficiently* but also *reliably*? Amortized inference offers the former, while MCMC is often presented as the "gold standard" for accuracy and reliability. Enter the Amortized Bayesian Workflow...

Posterior-SBC now also with peer-review stamp in Statistics and Computing doi.org/10.1007/s112... (update your bib files)

Posterior SBC: simulation-based calibration checking conditional on data - Statistics and Computing

Simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) refers to the validation of an inference algorithm and model implementation through testing self-consistency with repeated inference on data simulated from ...

doi.org

Aki Vehtari@avehtari.bsky.social · last yr.

If you know simulation based calibration checking (SBC), you will enjoy our new paper "Posterior SBC: Simulation-Based Calibration Checking Conditional on Data" with Teemu Säilynoja, @marvinschmitt.com and @paulbuerkner.com arxiv.org/abs/2502.03279 1/7

I took a Waymo today. I had some initial safety concerns, but I felt reassured when I saw the driver had their seat belt fastened.

Sunrise in San Francisco ☀️

ICLR decisions are out! #ICLR #ICLR2026 @iclr-conf.bsky.social

Autumn in Helsinki‘s urban woodlands 🇫🇮❤️

Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?

Many treat uncertainty = a number. At Apple, we're rethinking this: LLMs should output strings that reveal all information of their internal distributions. We find that Reasoning, SFT, CoT can't do it - yet. To get there, we introduce the SelfReflect benchmark. arxiv.org/pdf/2505.20295

Natural idea. Looks like a nice paper too. arxiv.org/abs/2508.21184

BED-LLM: Intelligent Information Gathering with LLMs and Bayesian Experimental Design

We propose a general-purpose approach for improving the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to intelligently and adaptively gather information from a user or other external source using the framew...

arxiv.org

BayesFlow released version 2.0.4, presented numerous findings at the MathPsych/ICCM 2025 conference at Ohio State University, and expanded its contributor list to 25 active members! Congrats to BayesFlow on all these new huge accomplishments!

This is a fantastic European initiative to offer an alternative attendance option to the largest AI conference 🇪🇺✨

NeurIPS Europe@neuripseurope.bsky.social · last yr.

EurIPS is coming! 📣 Mark your calendar for Dec. 2-7, 2025 in Copenhagen 📅 EurIPS is a community-organized conference where you can present accepted NeurIPS 2025 papers, endorsed by @neuripsconf.bsky.social and @nordicair.bsky.social and is co-developed by @ellis.eu eurips.cc

The S in Sunday stands for Sinnamon buns; sourdough-based of course 🧡

Marvin Schmitt@marvin-schmitt.com · last yr.

Extending my artisanal repertoire: Homemade pickled red onions 💜

Extending my artisanal repertoire: Homemade pickled red onions 💜

Marvin Schmitt@marvin-schmitt.com · last yr.

We’re going Italian! 🇮🇹 Sourdough focaccia with rosemary and cherry tomatoes 🌿🍅

My 5-year-old asked me whether there are "things that only have one side". Me: *takes a deep breath* Actually …

This is a fantastic read about Cameron‘s work in developer advocacy. The post is not only valuable for dedicated devrel folks, but also has many insights for all open source developers. Check it out 👇

Cameron@cameron.stream · last yr.

I put together a post on how to do developer advocacy. Give it a peek. Let me know if you've got tips, other things you've noticed successful devrels do, etc. cameron.pfiffer.org/blog/devrel/

We’re going Italian! 🇮🇹 Sourdough focaccia with rosemary and cherry tomatoes 🌿🍅

Marvin Schmitt@marvin-schmitt.com · last yr.

Back to a basic wheat bread. I‘ve been told that it pairs well with chocolate spread 👀

I'm putting together a visualization workshop for PhD students 🧪📊 Looking for examples of the good, the bad, and the ugly. Do you have examples for a great (or awful) figure? Plots and overview/explainer figures are welcome. Thanks 🧡

Back to a basic wheat bread. I‘ve been told that it pairs well with chocolate spread 👀

Marvin Schmitt@marvin-schmitt.com · last yr.

Today we’re serving a traditional Finnish rye bread with crispy crust and fine crumb 🇫🇮

Today we’re serving a traditional Finnish rye bread with crispy crust and fine crumb 🇫🇮

Marvin Schmitt@marvin-schmitt.com · last yr.

For my next trick… Traditional rye/wheat mix bread ✨

For my next trick… Traditional rye/wheat mix bread ✨

Marvin Schmitt@marvin-schmitt.com · last yr.

My first attempt at sourdough bread went surprisingly well. Any tips or advice from the bread baking pros on here?

My first attempt at sourdough bread went surprisingly well. Any tips or advice from the bread baking pros on here?

I'm putting together a visualization workshop for PhD students 🧪📊 Looking for examples of the good, the bad, and the ugly. Do you have examples for a great (or awful) figure? Plots and overview/explainer figures are welcome. Thanks 🧡

🧠 Check out the classic examples from Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical Course (Lee & Wagenmakers, 2013), translated into step-by-step tutorials with BayesFlow! Interactive version: kucharssim.github.io/bayesflow-co... PDF: osf.io/preprints/ps...

Because it wasn't annoying enough that my domain was down for 35 days... Now a bot network farm automatically bought my old personal domain the second it got released. Odds are that they will (1) host explicit+spam content on the website and/or (2) try to sell it back to me for an ungodly price.

Marvin Schmitt@marvin-schmitt.com · last yr.

My domain is down. In the meantime, you can find my website at: marvinschmitt.github.io

Clouded mind. (created with #midjourney)

If you’re into bluesy tunes and parody lyrics, check out our cover song! 🎶 There ain’t no cure for the PhD blues 🎶

Zeta Of 1@zetaof1.bsky.social · 2y ago

For those of you who have not heard it, let me shamelessly readvertise my collaboration with the amazing @tcarpenter.bsky.social and @marvinschmitt.bsky.social about the Blues that a PhD can be. Had tons of fun playing tha bass: youtu.be/RaShFRRFN_I?...

My domain is down. In the meantime, you can find my website at: marvinschmitt.github.io

With his research on Bayesian Deep Learning, Vincent has his finger on the pulse of the time in modern AI 🤖 I’m already looking forward to tune in to this conversation between @alex-andorra.bsky.social and @vincefort.bsky.social. … and it also comes with a video version! 👇 youtu.be/3hYYGiucS0U

#129 Bayesian Deep Learning & AI for Science with Vincent Fortuin

YouTube video by Learning Bayesian Statistics

youtu.be

Pierre-Simon Laplace@learnbayesstats.bsky.social · last yr.

What if AI could know when it doesn’t know? 🎙️ @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with @vincefort.bsky.social about Bayesian deep learning, why it matters for uncertainty, calibration & more 🎧 Tune in: learnbayesstats.com/episode/129-... #BayesianDeepLearning #MachineLearning #ReliableAI #AIResearch

Any advice on how to design a pretty cover for a PhD thesis? 📔 #AcademicSky