The world has weeks of fuel buffers left. Markets haven't noticed yet. In the last day or so Brent crude first rose by 14%, to $126 a barrel, before crashing by $12, to $114 a barrel. To me, this does not scream panic (1/6)
Matthieu Favas
@mattfavas.bsky.social
I lead The Economist's coverage of commodities globally - energy, food and mining - as well as that of economic sanctions, grey/black markets and illicit finance more broadly.
4.8bn people. Less than 50 days of crude stocks in India, SK and Singapore. Weeks of LNG in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Same for jet fuel in Oz/Nz. The Iran war is causing an Asian energy emergency www.economist.com/finance-and-...
The Iran war puts Asia in an energy panic
Stranded Gulf supplies are choking off the region’s economies
economist.com
Iran has struck energy infra in Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait & the UAE. Hormuz is effectively closed. Oil is up 14%. European gas up 70%. Iraq is cutting production. This is the nightmare scenario energy analysts feared most www.economist.com/finance-and-...
The nightmare Iran energy scenario is becoming reality
A longer war means a harsher global economic fallout
economist.com
A third of the world's seaborne oil passes through a strait 33 miles wide. War in Iran is fast making it unnavigable. Markets reopen tonight www.economist.com/finance-and-...
War in Iran could cause the biggest oil shock in years
Prices will surge in the short run—and may stay high for a while
economist.com
America's bet on critical minerals assumes Western subsidies can outlast Chinese patience. China has been executing this playbook for 40 years. Washington has been at it for months. Will it work? Our cover story this week www.economist.com/briefing/202...
America’s new era of state-sponsored mining
Desperate to break China’s grip on critical minerals, the Trump administration is splashing cash around the world
economist.com
Russia is dangling a $12 trillion prize in front of America. I ran the numbers. Putin’s offer is a trap www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Will investing in Russia really bring America a $12trn bonanza?
The Kremlin is making big promises to Donald Trump’s administration
economist.com
Last week the EU pledged to stop buying Russian gas by 2027. But there is one commodity from the bellicose giant next door it remains hooked on: plant food www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Europe bans Russia’s gas exports, but still buys its gas-based fertiliser
The EU’s rising tariffs may not solve the problem
economist.com
The Trump administration has just blacklisted Russia’s two largest oil firms. Global prices have lept; some big Indian and Chinese refiners say they will stop importing. Are these new sanctions really the all-out strike they appear? My quick take www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Will America’s new sanctions on Russian oil force a peace deal?
Donald Trump raises the pressure—but he may have to go further
economist.com
Three years ago, a food calamity loomed. Russia’s war in Ukraine pitted 2 big grain exporters against each other; prices surged. As the war rages on, Ukraine's wheat exports are set to shrink by 25-30% this season. And yet prices are nearing 5-year lows. Here's why www.economist.com/finance-and-...
How grain has gone from famine to feast
Prices are close to a five-year low
economist.com
Commodity markets look simple. When the supply of a material shrinks, prices go up. When supply expands, they go down. The problem is that supply shocks never quite live up to the initial excitement. For a recent example, take a look at lithium www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Why supply shocks are a trap for commodity investors
Lessons from lithium’s fake rally
economist.com
Thrilled to say that I have been named Journalist of the Year by the @wincottfound.bsky.social, for my coverage of Iran's sanction-busting, Russia's new economic friends and China's secret commodity stockpiles. Huge thanks to my colleagues and editors wincott.co.uk/matthieu-fav...
Matthieu Favas of The Economist wins Journalist of the Year … Bloomberg’s Damian Shepherd named Young Journalist … Claer Barrett of FT “outstanding’ in personal finance … Campaigning journalism of Gre...
Matthieu Favas of The Economist was named Wincott Journalist of the Year 2024 for his “superb reporting on some of the most opaque subjects,…
wincott.co.uk
In the trade war between the US and China, most of the focus has been on the tariff tit for tat. But China has another weapon to hurt America: restrictions on rare-earth exports. That is a weapon it is starting to deploy. How much damage could it cause? www.economist.com/finance-and-...
China has a weapon that could hurt America: rare-earth exports
It has only just begun to use it
economist.com
Markets are sliding. Oil and gas are tanking. Other commodities are down. So this week I wrote about a niche material that's holding up better than most. Tin is the one critical metal no one's talking about www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Tin, an overlooked critical metal, is enjoying a boom
Prized and in short supply, its price is very volatile
economist.com
What if America lifts sanctions on Russia but Europe does not? Access to US tech, currency and payment networks, some say, is what Russia really wants. But the old continent has its own weapons. Ignored and threatened, it may be tempted to use them www.economist.com/finance-and-...
How Europe can hurt Russia’s economy
Even if America lifts sanctions, the old continent has its own weapons
economist.com
Faced with Trump's bullying, Europe wants to avoid escalation. Its retaliatory tariffs are measured. The bloc still hopes that the worst instincts of the American president and his coterie can be moderated. But what if they can't? www.economist.com/briefing/202...
If it comes to a stand-off, Europe has leverage over America
But pulling some of those levers would be so damaging as to make them unusable
economist.com
Three months after Syria’s 14-year civil war ended, and as Ramadan begins, euphoria is being replaced by anger at the continuing atrophying of the economy. There is a way to change this www.economist.com/briefing/202...
Syria’s economy, still strangled by sanctions, is on its knees
It will not improve until they are lifted
economist.com
As Trump starts talks with Russia on ending war in Ukraine, European gas prices are cooling. They are now 17% down from their peak of Feb 10th. How likely is it that Europe starts piping gas from Russia again? www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Will Europe return to Putin’s gas?
A deal with the devil would boost the continent’s miserable economy
economist.com
MUFG, a bank, estimates that a 25% tariff will push up the cost of a tonne of steel imported into America from $755 to over $900, negating a cost advantage that America currently enjoys over Europe. Donald Trump's metals wars will corrode the economy www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Donald Trump’s Super Bowl tariffs are an act of self-harm
Duties on aluminium and steel will throttle American industry and fragment global markets
economist.com
The Arctic’s first ice-free day may occur before 2030. For many this is a tragedy. But some smell a huge economic opportunity www.economist.com/finance-and-...
The Arctic: climate change’s great economic opportunity
An enormous prize is on offer. When might it be grasped?
economist.com
After ignoring Iran's clandestine oil trade for most of his tenure, Biden is finally turning the screws. The result: Iran's oil exports are down by a quarter in 3 months. Now Trump promises maximum pressure... How will Iran - and oil prices - respond? www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Iran is vulnerable to a Trumpian all-out economic assault
Oil prices are already at a five-month high
economist.com
For the first time since 2022, it looks like Ukraine is winning the economic war. But it faces strong headwinds: the uptick of war, the downtick of domestic resources... and Donald Trump www.economist.com/finance-and-... Great to collaborate with @olliecarroll.bsky.social
Ukraine is winning the economic war against Russia
Whether that lasts depends on its ability to overcome acute shortages of power, men and money
economist.com
Donald Trump wants to be the ultimate energy baron. But how much oil can he really pump? (Spoiler: much less than he says) www.economist.com/finance-and-...
How much oil can Trump pump?
The president-elect wants to be the ultimate energy baron
economist.com
Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel. Yet it still provides a third of global energy. What would it cost to kill it? My colleagues and I crunched the numbers in this COP-special interactive piece www.economist.com/interactive/...
What would it cost to kill coal?
The price of shutting down coal power, and what would be gained
economist.com