Matt Winkelman

@mattwinkelman.bsky.social

Cats, phillies prospects, hopefully less unhinged rants. He/Him. I write things at https://philliesminorthoughts.com/ / @philliesminorthoughts.com

The fact that there are at least 4 rankings of prospects traded at the deadline from what are considered the industry expert sites and they wildly at odds with each other about the top players traded should say a lot about trades, rankings, and the deadline, but it probably won't sink in.

The difference in ERA and ERA estimators and how they drive WAR is continuously interesting with Jesus Luzardo, but you are essentially arguing is a top 10 or top 15 pitcher. What is amazing to me given everything prior to his time in Philly is that he is tied for 4th in IP since the start of 2025.

The IronPigs faced Noah Song and Sam McWilliams tonight. For those are asking, who is Sam McWilliams? He was the Phillies 2014 8th rd pick who they traded for Jeremy Hellickson who they traded for Garrett Cleavinger who they traded for Jose Alvarado

Why does Mattingly insist on constantly warming up everyone in the bullpen every game. Can his son explain to him that we don’t do that anymore? I don’t care if it is the one that is the GM or the teenage one.

The thing about Luis Arraez is that he is a good hitter that fans of a certain age bracket think is an elite offensive player. If he is playing a solid second base he is a quite good all around player. It just feels like the battle lines always end up as you have to think he is HoFer or he sucks.

It was on my mind today, here is a comparison of roster today to NLDS (which was 14 hitter/12 pitchers). Out: Marchan, Kemp, Bader, Castellanos, Kepler, Wilson, Banks, Strahm, Suarez, Robertson, Walker In: Stubbs, De La Cruz, Hill, Arraez, Crawford, Wheeler, Painter, Bowlan, Kilian, Raley, Shugart

It looks like Washington is using a lefty opener so the Phillies are stacking lefties at the bottom of the lineup like it is a RH SP, but hoping they are far enough down to keep them away from the opener. Interesting strategy.

Doing some arm chair pitch stuff, and the low hanging fruit on Kilian is that his fastballs has cut and ride, and he gets misses up in the zone with it. Predictably his sinker performs best off of that (so bottom third in on righties), but he doesn't throw it there that often.

I don't know if it files under 4-D chess, galaxy brain, conspiracy theory, cope. Is there a chance that Harper has been so bad defensively at 1B and Rincones, et al have been so bad in RF that part of this weirdly works out. I don't know what happened, but Harper's defense has dragged everyone down.