End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Mākena, Maui, Hawaii 🤙🏼

He was never a “whiz kid”. 👇🏼 Leverage doesn’t make you a genius.

Kate Duguid@kateduguid.bsky.social · last wk.

SCOOP: 24-year old whiz kid Leopold Aschenbrenner is trying to raise fresh capital for his $20bn hedge fund Situational Awareness after suffering heavy losses after the latest rout in AI stocks www.ft.com/content/2803...

Just a reminder that FORWARD ratios are, in general, hot garbage. Especially at the end of the cycle. This isn’t research, it’s propaganda. 👇🏼

Daily Chartbook@dailychartbook.bsky.social · 7d ago

"If Semis were a sector, it would be the fourth cheapest. It would also have the highest expected earnings growth rate over the next 12 months ... The Semis industry is 22.1% cheaper than the Staples sector. Woah." -Matt Cerminaro, Chart Kid Matt

Debt and leverage hide a lot of sins. The mistake investors make is thinking these sins will stay hidden. Exhibit A:

Maybe the economy isn’t as “benign” as most people think? 👇🏼

Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · last wk.

RBADVISERS: “.. Consumer Sentiment has never (!) in the history of the data been this poor when the economy was so benign.”

“The way to wealth in a bull market is debt. The way to oblivion in a bear market is also debt, and nobody rings a bell.” – James Grant That bell that nobody is ringing might not be ringing right now.

End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Hana Coast, Maui, Hawaii 🤙🏼

How is it that we’ve entrusted the future of our whole society to a handful of guys who between them (or working together), couldn’t accurately read a social cue?

If you’re rooting for the Fed to raise interest rates here in the middle of an oil shock, then you should also be bearish equities. History doesn’t lie, and it’s rhyming.

Investors own two things: 1) a stream of cash flows that will be delivered to their hands in the very long future (in some cases no cash flows at all), with a slope, drawn from current prices, that may or may not be adequate 2) a bag of made from the psychology of other investors

Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen. 👇🏼

Bob Elliott@bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 2w ago

Only 1% of investors think that 100/bbl oil could exist to close the year.

End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Haleakalā Sunrise, Maui, Hawaii 🤙🏼

"We have absolute confidence in the Titanic. We believe that the boat is unsinkable." - Philip Franklin, Vice President, White Star Line

Sade releases the iconic “Diamond Life” LP 42 yrs ago today. “.. They said the tracks were too long and too jazzy,” producer Robin Millar said about early discussions with label execs. “They said, ‘Don’t you know what’s happening? Everything is electronic drums now. Tears for Fears, Depeche Mode.”

New market comment is up! Some banger charts too. Crazy. Mountain, Cliff or Ocean 🏔️ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc26...

Mountain, Cliff, or Ocean - Hussman Funds

The current level of stock market valuations remains – easily – the most speculative extreme in U.S. financial history, beyond both the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Our baseline estimate is that the S&P 50...

hussmanfunds.com

If data centers are going to be so profitable, why are the builders/developers so eager to offload their ownership stakes? 👇🏼

End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Sunset - Wailea , Maui, Hawaii 🤙🏼 *Taken on my iPhone, not AI.

I will say, CNBC having me on and the god damn Drudge Report running the clip suggests that people are starting to reconcile with the scale of this bubble and its potential outcomes. I only wish we hadn't let it get this big.

End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Polipoli Sunrise, Kula, Maui, Hawaii. Have a great holiday weekend! 🤙🏼

This is a sobering counterpoint to the “rah rah” narrative on generative AI that we’ve all been bombarded with the last couple of years. 👇🏼 Well worth the time it takes to listen.

Ed Zitron@edzitron.com · last mo.

Here's my full interview with CNBC, covering my bear case against generative AI, OpenAI's questionable finances, AI's lack of ROI, and how all of this is a symptom of the tech industry running out of hypergrowth ideas. It's great to see the mainstream media discussing this. youtu.be/TtmPccUTDP8?...

“Psychological projection is an unconscious defense mechanism where a person attributes their own unacceptable thoughts, feelings, or traits onto someone else.”

End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Makena Sunset, Maui, Hawaii 🤙🏼

1/3 This chart from FT Alphaville shows the number of stocks among the largest 1,000 U.S. companies (by market cap) with a negative beta to the S&P 500, calculated on trailing 252-day (roughly one-year) daily returns. Basically, it shows the most extreme market concentration in history.

This chart is so ridiculous, it’s laughable. Deliberate chart crime. That you continue to share garbage from Duality Research is shameful. For the record, At the end of May, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index is 207% above its long-term trend (over 4 standard deviations). 👇🏼

End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Hana Sunrise, Maui, Hawaii 🤙🏼

Oil shorts right now. 👇🏼

2000, 2008 and 2022. 👇🏼 An indicator with a stellar track record.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.@hussmanjp.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Ho hum - dozens of overextension flags today - including this one - among the motherlode we've seen in the past 5 weeks. Without implying that speculators can't do whatever speculators choose to do, their focus rarely gets this narrow except at extremes when they're all in.

Either Rick Rieder of BlackRock doesn’t understand that there’s no such thing as “cash on the sidelines”, or he’s counting on that you don’t understand there’s no such thing. So either he’s an idiot, or a bullshitter.