Max Hailperin

@maxhailperin.bsky.social

max.hailperin@gmail.com

Just said this on the radio but: I spoke to probably more than 100 people who work in and around elections yesterday — clerks, poll workers, inspectors, etc — and I'm left feeling so optimistic. It's genuinely reaffirming to see the process in action! I'd recommend it to anyone with questions.

Someone asked me why Minnesota elections offices will continue mailing out absentee ballots all this week even as the hopes for timely return dwindle. The answer is the same as with most election administration questions: Because the legislature said so. It's the law.

Text of 2025 Minnesota Statutes section 203B.04, Application for Ballots, subdivision 1, Application procedures, paragraph (a), with highlighting of the following: "an application for absentee ballots for any election may be submitted at any time not less than one day before the day of that election."

Minor irony: The photo illustrating this article is from a stand-alone municipal election, held in an odd year. For which all parties to the court case agree the city can choose whether to use electronic rosters or paper. Only the county/state/federal elections are at issue.

Max Hailperin@maxhailperin.bsky.social · 5d ago

This article does a decent job of summarizing the policy issues at stake but really doesn't even touch the legal question the court will be answering. www.startribune.com/minnesota-su...

Because @mprnews.org continues to distribute outdated information about Minnesota's absentee ballot witness requirement, I want to restate the actual requirement. As always, the best advice is to follow the official instructions. The witness can be any U.S. citizen who will be 18 by election day.

Witness section of Minnesota absentee ballot signature envelope (version for registered voters) with highlighted text "I am at least 18 years of age on or before the day of the election and a citizen of the United States, or am a notary, or am authorized to give oaths."

This graph also is a reminder of how vastly different the populations of Minnesota counties are. The X way far away from the others in the upper right is Hennepin. The next two are Ramsey and Dakota. About 10 more are individually visible. That leaves 74 bunched into the fuzzy caterpillar near zero.

Max Hailperin@maxhailperin.bsky.social · 6d ago

The 87 Minnesota counties are showing a reasonably consistent return and acceptance of about 26% of mailed-out ballots, with a week and a half to go. (Estimated assuming mailout equals applications minus accepted in-person.) www.sos.mn.gov/election-adm...

Scatter plot of accepted mailed ballots vs. estimated mailout with linear fit of 0.257*x + -162 with R^2 = 0.987

The sum of a whole bunch of individual decisions happens to end with 000. The probability of that happening is just 1 in 1000. The same as the probability of a total ending in 317 or any other three digits. There's nothing more weird about one than another.

Citywide early votes 7,000. Mail 3,522. In-Person 2,490. Other 988.

Be wary of comparisons between different Minnesota counties' early voting numbers. Factors such as the convenience of voting locations can substantially affect the number of early voters. Turnout for the full election may be in quite different proportions.

With a Minnesota election nearing, a reminder that every absentee ballot you receive in the mail has a phone number and email address in the return address. Wondering why you got two? The elections office is more likely to know than social media folks. What to do about that coffee spill? Ditto.

Sample absentee ballot transmittal envelope with green highlighting of where the phone number and email address would be at the bottom of the return addressMinnesota administrative rule 8210.0400 governing transmittal envelopes, which specifies that "A telephone number and an electronic mail address that voters can call or contact for help in absentee voting must be printed as part of the return address"

Perfect illustration of Box's aphorism that all models are wrong, but some are useful. One doesn't need data to see this model must be wrong: It calls for a single instantaneous change in behavior on what, the 18th birthday? And yet, and yet, it captures, however imperfectly, an aspect of reality.

George Monbiot@georgemonbiot.bsky.social · last wk.

As you prepare for your holiday outings, please remember Monbiot’s Inviolable Law on Leaving the House: T = 2A² + 5C² Where T is time in minutes, A is adults and C is children.