🧪 After enough online arguments I've picked up a set of epistemological peeves. It might be fun for others to join in with more. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/epistemolo...
Michael Weissman
@mbweissman.bsky.social
physicist, does some stats etc. https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=FHa6WX4AAAAJ&hl=en https://michaelweissman.substack.com/ https://www.dailykos.com/users/docmidwest https://x.com/mbw61567742
🧪 @mark-ungrin.bsky.social I put up a short blog about the Munster/Kew inactivated Mpox business, trying to disentangle some issues that got lumped together. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/munster-kw...
Scientists shouldn’t censor scientists especially at a scientific meeting where the free exchange of ideas is supposed to happen regardless of political content. MAHA will literally kill people. Talking about it can save lives. Science does not exist in isolation from politics. #MedSky 🧪
Five prominent obesity scientists were kicked out of the industry’s biggest annual meeting while handing out an editorial criticizing the Trump administration’s health policies
Police pushed out a couple of the attendees at a diabetes scientific meeting. The crime: Passing out printouts of a recent publication calling out the administration for destroying our research infrastructure. The right to free speech was infringed upon. Censorship is real. We have to stand up.
May Day is one day. Solidarity is every day. After today's action, the work doesn’t stop. When workers strike, ask for support. Show up, don’t cross picket lines, and make it real by backing labor actions in your daily choices.
On the issue of bias in test-negative controls, the excuse Bhattacharya gave for censoring the Covid vax efficacy MMWR paper, see pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39567531/ The main bias is rarely as large as 8% and tends to underestimate efficacy. A more general treatment: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33831173/
They should introduce him by playing this and dozens of other similar interviews from 6 years ago.
Dr. John Ioannidis minimizes COVID April 2020
YouTube video by Jonathan Howard
youtu.be
Absolutely stunned that the Society for Epidemiologic Research chose John Ioannidis to deliver the conference keynote in the Year of Our Lord 2026.
Turns out ChatGpt lies repeatedly when hammered on an easy apolitical question. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/interrogat...
🧪Dunno if this is useful to anybody but I scrounged some old notes introducing likelihood methods and Bayes, with some exercises included. A supplement to an intro stats course. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/likelihood...
michaelweissman.substack.com
July 21 1935: The Führer orders a new reception hall and ballroom to "entertain foreign diplomats" at the Chancellery. Underneath the dance floor is an air raid shelter. A 2nd deeper bunker is built next to this in 1944, where he would spend his last days as the Reich collapsed.
Trump rants his ballroom will feature "Bomb Shelters, a State of the Art Hospital & Medical Facilities,Top Secret Military Installations, Protective Missile Resistant Steel, Drone Proof Ceilings, Military Grade Venting, & Bullet, Ballistic, & Blast Proof Glass" Dafuq kind of ballroom is this?
My thoughts on the Covid origins group-think frying pan econjwatch.org/articles/an-... econjwatch.org/podcast/mich... and the MAGA fire. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/bhattachar...
🧪 Jay Bhattacharya will be a lead speaker in an upcoming NAS workshop on scientific integrity. Thats a bad choice: michaelweissman.substack.com/p/bhattachar... JB's ideology drives not only his policy choices but his science. He's right about Covid origins but wrong about more immediate issues.
🧪
The famous two-Covid-spill Pekar 2022 Science paper got its result upside down via a math error. abstract: econjwatch.org/articles/an-... pdf: econjwatch.org/file_downloa... interview with Jamie Robins: econjwatch.org/podcast/mich... substack discussion: michaelweissman.substack.com/p/sciences-p...
The famous two-Covid-spill Pekar 2022 Science paper got its result upside down via a math error. abstract: econjwatch.org/articles/an-... pdf: econjwatch.org/file_downloa... interview with Jamie Robins: econjwatch.org/podcast/mich... substack discussion: michaelweissman.substack.com/p/sciences-p...
They Built It. Now They're Bombing It. The 1980 October Surprise didn't just put Reagan in the White House. GOP operatives also sided with repressive Islamists who took control of the Iranian revolution and squashed the forces of secular democracy. open.substack.com/pub/craigung...
They Built It. Now They Want to Bomb It.
Today's Iran crisis didn't start with just the mullahs. It started with a secret deal that Republican operatives made with them— a deal that changed history and may now lead to war.
open.substack.com
Admittedly, I had low priors for Bayes' theorem appearing in a Superbowl ad.🧪
Many of my science colleagues are not speaking out-I suspect due to the fear Phil notes, that they'll targeted for loss of funding. I hope they read this account of what happened at a faculty meeting at Frankfurt University in 1933 as the Nazi's took control 🧪 www.facinghistory.org/resource-lib...
My point was that if they take away your precheck, what’s to stop them from rejecting your grants?
To repeat: It is highly improbable that I would agree with Bill Kristol. I agree with him 100%. ICE has become the gestapo. They need to go. Just saw a Minneapolis protestor yelling at ICE, near shooting site, "We will not forgive you." Correct.
To repeat: Abolish ICE.
In 1987 when the Norwegians picked Arias over Gronlund, Kogut, Wright & me for the Nobel Peace prize, we were disappointed but too slow-witted to threaten to start a war in response.
🧪I prepared some highly organized tutorial lessons for MDs on Bayesian differential diagnosis. They just cover the very basics but I hope somebody (not just MDs) finds them useful. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/bayesian-d...
Bayesian diagnosis: tutorial lessons
just covering the most basic parts
michaelweissman.substack.com
🧪Based on overwhelming popular demand (one request) I've posted slides for the second half of my old physics/philosophy course. This part is not historical. It gets into the open-ended fallout from Bell's Inequality violations, etc. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/physicsphi...
Physics/Philosophy/History: some course slides
Does the Sun go around the Earth or Vice-Versa? Why is it dark at night?
michaelweissman.substack.com
🧪To their credit & my surprise, Science just posted my eletter demonstrating that the Pekar et al 2022 analysis implied a higher likelihodd for 1 Covid spillover rather than their claimed 2. Will it change the narrative? Dunno. eletters are at the end of the paper www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2
SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity early in the COVID-19 pandemic points to emergence involving at least two zoonotic events.
science.org
🧪 I've posted some lecture slides from a course I taught many times at the intersection of physics/philosophy/history. I was not generally a good teacher but this turned into a good course. The 1st 14 lectures work to answer the 2 subtitle questions. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/physicsphi...
Physics/Philosophy/History: some course slides
Does the Sun go around the Earth or Vice-Versa? Why is it dark at night?
michaelweissman.substack.com
Pekar 2022 was 1 of 2 key papers supporting a market origin of covid, via multiple spillovers. v3 of my arXiv fixing its math errors in a transparent way is now up, with a new histogram. tl;dr The answer from their model applied to their data is the opposite of their claim. arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
I recycle some old thoughts (2017) about Trump and the collapse of civilization. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/civilizati...
Civilization and Its Discontents
rerunning thoughts from 2017, with some new comments
michaelweissman.substack.com
The corrections to the Pekar 2022 Science paper claiming multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions are factorizable and simple, using data contained in the paper and minimal assumptions. Their data and model imply that a single introduction was more likely. arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences
A much-cited 2022 paper by Pekar et al. claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that it was more likely that two successful introductions to human...
arxiv.org
Very few PhD students finish within 4 years. But international students will need to do that if US proposed visa rules change go through. Sound reasonable to you? Fed register is accepting comments for next month. Details at the link & comment button www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
Establishing a Fixed Time Period of Admission and an Extension of Stay Procedure for Nonimmigrant Academic Students, Exchange Visitors, and Representatives of Foreign Information Media
Unlike most nonimmigrant classifications, which are admitted for a fixed time period, aliens in the F (academic student), J (exchange visitor), and most I (representatives of foreign information media...
federalregister.gov