The latest El Niño forecast by the ECM is suggesting a record shattering +4°C event. Impacts; - Record breaking global warmth (1.7-1.8°C) - Catastrophic marine heatwaves Potential to be one of the most disruptive climate anomalies we’ve ever observed.

An unusually cold spell of weather across New Zealand has allowed snow to fall in Wellington for the first time in 15 years ❄️ Many are seeing snowfall for the first time in their lives.

It’s likely that very warm or hot conditions will return to Europe / southern UK through the early part of next week with temperatures peaking on Wednesday. Potential for >30°C once again in the UK, some models peak temperatures around the mid 30’s. Heatwave number 5?

Austria has set a new all time temperature record of 41.0°C today. 9 separate weather stations recorded >40°C as heatwaves & record temperatures continue to impact the Northern Hemisphere.

Many parts of southern England recorded 0mm of rainfall in July, a first since records began in 1871. No sign of meaningful rainfall in the next 2 weeks either as high pressure re-builds, the drought continues. 📷 Blackheath, London

How do you communicate climate change impacts & likely future impacts without coming across as hyperbolic? It’s difficult to express the severity that we face without it seeming “overblown” in some way.

On August 12th we’ll have the pleasure of witnessing a partial solar eclipse, ranging from 90-96% coverage in the UK, the most since 1999. As things stand - High pressure looks to be across the UK so cloud will hopefully not be an issue, but will keep an eye on the forecast.

I love this question! Part was minor natural variability but the main cause was probably a change in how water temperatures were measured, they started to measure them from the engine room intake which was very slightly warmer than the previous bucket method. After the war they reverted back!

Owen Dirkshift@owendirkshift.bsky.social · yesterday

That's an interesting blip from 1939 to 1945. I wonder what caused that?

July 2026 - the sunniest, driest and warmest July in the UK (when all combined) since at least 1910.

Sub-surface Pacific temperatures are now warmer than ever recorded having exceeded 1997's peak by 0.36°C. Further warming is still likely before they peak, little doubt now that this will be the strongest El Nino event in recorded history.

Earth is now warming faster than at any point in recorded geological history - around 10 times faster than the extreme warming event 56 million years ago and 20 times faster than at the end of the last ice age. We are almost certainly in a new extinction event.

South Korea have warned people to “stop outdoor activities” as a record breaking heatwave continues to grip the Peninsula. Temperatures have exceeded 40°C for 5 days straight with a new all time record of 42.5°C recorded yesterday. Yet another area seeing record heat.

The sea surface temperature anomalies developing in the eastern Pacific are absurd. El Nino wont peak until later this year and it’s already looking rather extreme.

This is supposed to be corn, it should be about 8 foot tall and growing corn but there’s absolutely nothing on it, complete crop failure by the looks of things. Farmers are going to severely struggle this year.

This is a remarkably extreme statistic. Bordeaux, France has recorded more days >40°C in 2026 than in the entire 105 year period combined dating back to 1920 when records began. This summer has been so far above extreme it’s difficult to put into words. Chart: @WxNB_

Our oceans are boiling 🔥 The developing super El Niño combined with vast swathes of the oceans being above average or experiencing marine heatwaves has led to average SST’s being at record high levels. The planet continues to show us that we are changing the climate.

We’re now beginning to see global average temperatures responding to El Niño following a recent spike and we’re several months away from it peaking. The second image is with 2023, 2024 & 2025 removed, three unprecedentedly hot years to show just how far above normal we are.

While the UK will see a fleeting blast of heat over the next few days with temperatures once again >30°Cc France, Spain & Germany are looking at yet another spell of extreme heat. The summer that never ends! No end in sight to the drought conditions.

Are things supposed to spill outside of bell curves? The temperature anomaly this summer across Europe is nothing short of exceptional. I still feel that we’ve seen a step change in our climate over the last decade.

4 years ago today the UK exceeded 40°C for the first time in recorded history. Multiple over stations exceeded the previous all time temperature record and several other stations reached or exceeded 40°C, the high was of course 40.3°C.

Concordia, Antarctica has recorded a low of -84.1C, just 0.5C above it's all time low temperature record. Reports suggest this is the lowest temperature recorded on earth since 2012, quite a severe cold spell of weather, even by Antarctica standards.

Domestic abuse increases significantly when England lose big games like this. You are not alone. If you experience domestic abuse, there is help out there.

The last 28 days has a trailing CET mean of 20.66°C which means it’s been the hottest 4 week period since records first began in 1772. Were on track for July to be the warmest July on record with the first 14 days coming in at 20.5°C, the previous record is 19.8°C.

The average hottest day of the year has warmed by over 4.5°C from Kent to Lincolnshire in the most recent (2016-2025) decade vs the 1961-1990 average. That’s a pretty significant jump upwards.

Smoke from wildfires burning in the Peak District is visible on satellite images!

It’s highly likely this years El Niño event will be the strongest on record by a significant margin, records go back to the late 1800’s. The previous record is 2.75°C, forecasts comfortably suggest we could reach 3.6°C or perhaps even exceed that. Chart: @hausfath

Sea Surface Temperatures around the UK and in the Mediterranean are some >5-6°C above where they should be for the time of year. A rather severe & potentially catastrophic marine heatwave developing as a result of continued heatwaves.

We’ve probably got another week of temperatures reaching 30°C somewhere in the south. Cooler in the east for a few days but signs that >30°C will return widely mid-end of next week. Any signs of a breakdown and return to more average conditions remain tentative at the moment. Phenomenal.

Another interesting statistic. Between 1980 and 1999, 35°C was reached just 5 times. It was rare & exceptional. Between 2000-2020 we reached 35°C 18 times. Between 2020-2025 we reached it 23 times. The same number in 5 years than we achieved in 40 years. Talk about a step change.

Global Temperature Change Over Time

ALT: Global Temperature Change Over Time

static.klipy.com

Interesting statistic. For the first time in recorded history, temperatures have reached or exceeded 35°C in three consecutive month, May, June & July.