Mike Spagat
@michael-spagat.bsky.social
Economist who studies war. Chair of Every Casualty Counts and former Chair of Action on Armed Violence. Obsessed with measurement.
1/7 Yesterday I presented new research on what I'm calling the "demographic fingerprints" of armed conflict — and what they reveal about Gaza. Here is a recording of the presentation: vimeo.com/1175493576?s...
Identifying Genocide by its Fingerprints
Every conflict leaves a demographic fingerprint in its casualties - who was killed, by age and sex, reflects the nature of the violence itself. Combat deaths skew young and male; some mass atrocities ...
vimeo.com
everycasualty.org/webinar-08ap... @everycasualty.bsky.social @leloveluck.bsky.social
Webinar - Identifying Genocide by its Fingerprints - Every Casualty Counts
Your gift can be doubled 2-9 Dec, allowing us to expand our unique work on accurate casualty recording, to help loved ones find peace.
everycasualty.org
This is a very cool article/🧵 that outlines the argument and evidence in my book, Divided Armies, about why prejudice and discrimination is bad for military effectiveness
Strange Matters Magazine@strangemattersmag.bsky.social · 5mo agoWar scholar @jaylyall.bsky.social conducted perhaps one of the most detailed comparative studies of military effectiveness. So why did Trump's cronies gag the military press over it? In his review, Kyle Flannery answers: because he proves racists lose wars. strangematters.coop/jason-lyall-...
1. IDF defenders claim Gaza's male-to-female ratio (~3.2:1 in ages 15-39) shows exceptional care in protecting civilians. I analyzed this ratio across 21 cases. The data shows the opposite: Gaza's pattern is consistent with indiscriminate killing, not precision targeting. 🧵
The think tankers/analysts/ “journalists” who spent years debunking Gaza death count should be feeling a bit shook right now, maybe a little hung out to dry, possibly taking a good long look in the mirror and hating what they see, potentially seeking new career. In reality, likely no consequences.
The Guardian@theguardian.com · 6mo agoIsrael accepts Gaza death toll compiled by health authorities is broadly accurate
1. New analysis by @karlfrost.bsky.social shows Israel's civilian-to-combatant ratio in Gaza is far worse than Netanyahu claims. He told the Economist it's 1.5:1. The data says otherwise—likely 5:1 to 8:1 depending on scope. @aoav.bsky.social aoav.org.uk/2026/why-isr...
Why Israeli claims of low civilian-to-combatant harm in Gaza do not hold up - AOAV
A rigorous reassessment of casualty data shows that Israel’s campaign in Gaza has produced an exceptionally high civilian-to-combatant death ratio, far exceeding official claims and placing the confli...
aoav.org.uk
Essential reading from Rachel Taylor, out Executive Director at @everycasualty.bsky.social everycasualty.org/holocaust-me...
Holocaust Memorial Day: Why remembering is an act of resistance - Every Casualty Counts
ECC Director shares reflections on importance of casualty recording this Holocaust Memorial Day 2026
everycasualty.org
The black box of combat deaths: why Israel must release its Gaza casualty data Excellent analysis for @aoav.bsky.social by @michael-spagat.bsky.social, as ever. aoav.org.uk/2025/the-bla...
The black box of combat deaths: why Israel must release its Gaza casualty data - AOAV
Israel’s refusal to release the underlying data behind its claimed Gaza combatant deaths creates a dangerous transparency gap, Professor Mike Spagat argues, undermining efforts to establish the true h...
aoav.org.uk
Technical debates over famine definitions miss the point while children in Gaza starve Powerful op-ed piece by @michael-spagat.bsky.social here for @aoav.bsky.social aoav.org.uk/2025/technic...
Technical debates over famine definitions miss the point while children in Gaza starve - AOAV
While pro-Israel media accuse aid agencies of lowering the bar to declare famine in Gaza, the real issue is that methodological nit-picking obscures the urgent need for a ceasefire to allow proper ass...
aoav.org.uk
#Gaza #Genocide #Germancomplicity apnews.com/photo-essay/...
PHOTO ESSAY: Starvation attacks the bodies of these children in Gaza
GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) — In some tents and shelters in northern Gaza, emaciated children are held in their parents' arms. Their tiny arms and legs dangle limp.
apnews.com
New paper estimates 75,200 violent deaths in Gaza from Oct 7, 2023 to Jan 5, 2025. Note potential sources of "downward bias." Estimate of nonviolent deaths is much lower than others. If correct, an amazing testament to Gaza's health workers and family support.
Mike Spagat@michael-spagat.bsky.social · last yr.1. New Paper "Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls in the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence" by me, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Håvard Hegre and Debarati Guha-Sapir
1. New Paper "Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls in the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence" by me, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Håvard Hegre and Debarati Guha-Sapir
A great article about what must have been a great event on casualty recording. @everycasualty.bsky.social aoav.org.uk/2025/casualt...
Casualty recording: a fundamental tool to preserve lives. Notes from the final plenary of the NDM-UN28 - AOAV
This final plenary at NDM-UN28 highlighted how accurate and disaggregated casualty recording is essential to evidence-based, lifesaving, and rights-driven mine action responses.
aoav.org.uk
