32 excellent volumes in the Geography Publications County History series overseen by Prof Willie Nolan, and one in particular is apparently flying off the shelves just now. Includes a chapter on the GAA by Arlene Crampsie (plus one on post-independence political history).

Disappointing performance from Argentina in WC final partly a consequence of gigantism of 48-team format: they had to play 8 games in 32 days in sweltering conditions with a day less to recover than Spain after semi-final, not surprising they looked exhausted by the end. 32-team format was better!

When 8 finals in a row display the same pattern, we have to infer that that’s not a coincidence. Fifa & Uefa really need to fix the two semi-finals for the same day in future.

Fascinating analysis as ever from SM & LK. Despite the online piece's headline, is there really any basis for inferring causality (in either direction)? When age and urban/rural are controlled for, how much variation does party support explain? Look forward to similar data for other sports!

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller.bsky.social · 3w ago

Article on RTÉ Brainstorm with @liamkne.bsky.social ahead of the All-Ireland Finals: we find that GAA interest cuts across income, education and gender, but not politics: Fianna Fáil voters are keenest, left-wing voters least interested. ➡️ www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2... @rtebrainstorm.bsky.social

World Cup 26 semi-finals were on Tues & Wed, so Spain have 5 days to recover before final, Argentina only 4. Does this confer an advantage on former? Possibly: over past 60 yrs pattern not strong, but last 7 Euros / WCs all won by the team that had the extra day to rest / prepare.

At every international competition where England make it to the later stages, qn is asked in Ireland (and probably Scotland and Wales too): ‘Should we not support England since they’re a close neighbour?’ Short answer: absolutely no obligation to do so. Longer answer:

The Tonight Show@tonightvmtv.bsky.social · 3w ago

Is it time "we forgot the past" and support England in the World Cup semi-final? #TonightVMTV Journalist Simon Tierney thinks we should. #TonightVMTV

The team that plays best in the early stages doesn't necessarily win the trophy. A slow start and gradual improvement tends to be a more effective approach.

Michael Gallagher@michaelgtcd.bsky.social · last mo.

After England vs DR Congo: it’s taken 3 weeks & 80 matches just to eliminate half of the 48 teams that started tournament back on 11 Jun. The need to play 8 matches in high temperatures in order to emerge as winners suggests the need for pacing; some (eg France?) may prove to have peaked too early

Nigel Farage resignation in UK raises qn of whether any TD has ever resigned and then contested the resulting by-election – which would be unwise under PR-STV as median TD in 2024 won only 14% of first preference votes cast in their constituency. No is the answer. Two cases from 1920s come closest.

I thought Portugal played pretty well given that they chose to play with just 10 men for the entire match.

Heinz Brandenburg@heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 4w ago

Spain - Portugal was always going to be the worst that football has to offer.

Hare coursing an archetypal (and rare) example of an issue where a 'free vote' would be appropriate. Not central to overall govt policy, no mention of issue in Prog for Govt or FF / FG manifestos so no qn of breaking any pledge to electorate. rte.ie/news/politics/2026/0630/1581157-hare-coursing/

Govt TDs set to oppose motion to ban hare coursing

Government party TDs are to oppose a forthcoming Dáil motion proposing a ban on hare coursing, with Coalition representatives not to receive a free vote on the issue.

rte.ie

After England vs DR Congo: it’s taken 3 weeks & 80 matches just to eliminate half of the 48 teams that started tournament back on 11 Jun. The need to play 8 matches in high temperatures in order to emerge as winners suggests the need for pacing; some (eg France?) may prove to have peaked too early

Posters for yesterday's by-election for Nova Scotia House of Assembly in newly-created French-speaking riding / constituency, won as expected by the Progressive Conservative candidate Claude Bourgeois ahead of Liberal Denis Cormier, both a long way ahead of NDP and Green candidates.

Michael Gallagher@michaelgtcd.bsky.social · last mo.

Ireland EC report doesn't recommend banning election posters – their merits outweigh demerits. Urges more consistent enforcement of current regs. Observes that electricity needed for online campaigning means this far from carbon-neutral as some believe. www.electoralcommission.ie/app/uploads/...

Ireland EC report doesn't recommend banning election posters – their merits outweigh demerits. Urges more consistent enforcement of current regs. Observes that electricity needed for online campaigning means this far from carbon-neutral as some believe. www.electoralcommission.ie/app/uploads/...

So, which of the teams placed third in their World Cup group will qualify for the round of 32? History suggests that 4 points will suffice, 2 points won’t, and 3 points might or might not depending on the team’s goal difference.

World Cup a quarter of the way through (26 matches completed out of 104). Only one 0–0 draw so far, average over 3 goals per game, but nothing especially memorable yet. France vs Sénégal the best match thus far. Jury definitely out on whether inflation to 48 teams is justified.

Academic analyses of the 2018 referendum make no mention of the 3-day wait period as a salient factor in voters’ decision-making. That, plus the decisive (66–34) nature of the outcome in 2018, strongly suggest there's no breach of faith with the electorate in now dropping that requirement.

The Journal@thejournal.ie · 2mo ago

The Dáil last night voted to approve legislation that would remove the mandatory three-day waiting period for those seeking an abortion. Here's how every TD voted jrnl.ie/7074713

Constituency configuration an issue that won’t go away. 3-seat consts not really compatible with principle of proportional representation. A move to 4-, 5- and 6-seat consts would be step in right direction; ultimately, fixing size of both Dail (eg at 180 seats) & const config the best approach.

Given the day that’s in it, 40 years on: Celso Borges surely the most capped player ever to play in the Estadio Riazor (over 160 caps for Costa Rica). He used to weave labyrinthine patterns in midfield.

Good review by Yvonne Galligan of Eoin O'Malley's bestseller Charlie vs Garret in DRB. A tangential point: the phrase ‘would be like turkeys voting for christmas’ was first coined not by TD Alice Glenn in 1986 but by a Cornish MP in 1977 & used by UK PM James Callaghan in 1979. www.drb.ie

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V unusual for a govt party candidate to win a by-election when vacancy was caused by departure of an opposition TD, as Seán Kyne (FG) has done in Galway W today. Prior to today, previous was Oct 2011 (Patrick Nulty in Dublin W), & before that June 1976 (Brendan Halligan in Dublin SW), both Labour.

It was always difficult to see how Daniel Ennis of Social Democrats could possibly NOT win the Dublin Central by-election. If a Condorcet winner makes it through to the final count, ie is one of the top two at the final stage, then by definition he/she cannot be beaten.

Michael Gallagher@michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 3mo ago

By-election 22 May in Dublin Central: Daniel Ennis (Social Dems) looks like a Condorcet winner, ie would defeat any other candidate in a head-to-head. So provided that (as expected) he isn’t eliminated before the final stage, he can be expected to take the seat.

How do Irish parties line up on left–right spectrum? Attached is from Chapter 5 (by Gail McElroy & Stefan Müller) in the book How Ireland Voted 2024 (Palgrave). Scores are based on analysis of manifestos at Nov 2024 election, and authors discuss in particular the surprising placement of Green Party.

By-elections 22 May: Analysis of transfers at 2024 election in How Ireland Voted 2024 shows that ‘soft left’ (Soc Dems / Labour / Greens) attract transfers both from FF & FG, who prefer them (esp Labour) to SF & other left, and from SF & other left, who prefer them (esp Soc Dems) to FF & FG.

Of the 137 winners of contested Dáil by-elections, 11 have started with first preference vote below 25%. Only one below 20%: current Ind Ireland TD Michael Fitzmaurice was elected having received 18.7% of first prefs in Roscommon–South Leitrim S 2014. Maybe this record could be challenged on 22 May?

By-election 22 May in Galway West: not clear that there is a Condorcet winner here, and, even if there is, he or she might not win enough first preferences to remain in the count till final stage. Several plausible contenders to win the seat; could be a long day going through the counts on Sat 23rd.

By-election 22 May in Dublin Central: Daniel Ennis (Social Dems) looks like a Condorcet winner, ie would defeat any other candidate in a head-to-head. So provided that (as expected) he isn’t eliminated before the final stage, he can be expected to take the seat.

Very informative – and topical given two upcoming 22 May by-elections – article on Irish by-elections by UCD’s Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social on RTÉ Brainstorm: rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2026/0426/1569745-bye-elections-through-the-years-analysis/

Politics: What a century of bye-election data reveals

What do bye-elections tell us about Irish politics? With contests due in Dublin Central and Galway West on 22 May, a century of results offers a sense of campaign strategies and voting behaviour.

rte.ie

Writs for 22 May by-elections finally moved. In 2024, Galway West was exceptionally fragmented, no party or ind won even 19% of vote, effective N parties 8.2. In Dublin Central, only SF (23.3%) exceeded 20% votes. Winning cands will have low % of first prefs, so transfers will determine outcomes.

Of the 138 by-election outcomes, the first 50 took place 1923–1949, the next 50 1952–76. Only 38 so far in the 50 years since then, mainly because it's now much rarer for TDs to die in office. 4th Dáil (1923–27) saw 21 seats filled through by-elections, by far the largest number of any Dáil.

Michael Gallagher@michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Irish Labour Party @labour.ie has won 10 of the 136 by-elections to have taken place since the foundation of the independent Irish state. Its first success, exactly 100 years ago today (18 Feb 1926), came in Dublin County, when future party leader William Norton was elected.

Of the 138 TDs elected at the 136 Dáil by-elections (two by-elections in 1925 each returned two TDs), nine (so far) have gone on to become a party leader, and a further two party leaders were first elected at Westminster by-elections in the summer of 1917.

Michael Gallagher@michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Irish Labour Party @labour.ie has won 10 of the 136 by-elections to have taken place since the foundation of the independent Irish state. Its first success, exactly 100 years ago today (18 Feb 1926), came in Dublin County, when future party leader William Norton was elected.