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Michael Rosen

@michaelrosen.bsky.social

fangraphs blogger

917 Posts4867 Follower308 Folgt
Michael Rosen@michaelrosen.bsky.social · 3w ago

wrote about this a bit last may, he's scooched up even further since then

Zach Neto Looks Like a Different Kind of Slugger

Bat speed isn’t the only way to crush a ton of homers.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Sam Miller @sammillerbb.bsky.social · 3w ago

Zach Neto is the big boss of value-neutral Statcast set-up/swing descriptors: 
 -99th percentile close to pitcher
 -99th percentile close to plate -100th percentile attack angle steepness -90th percentile “pull” attack direction -99th percentile in-front intercept point -90th percentile wide stance

Adam Bonin@adambonin.bsky.social · 2mo ago

On behalf of the BlueSky Robert Caro Stans Caucus, a note on Watson: Alito's dissent characterizes LBJ's 1948 "Box 13 scandal" as involving "late arriving votes" which flipped the election. No. No! It's about votes which were never cast in the first place. www.newyorker.com/magazine/199...

13This fact pattern is not very far-removed from reality. An acclaimed biography of former President Lyndon Johnson detailed how the Senate campaign that propelled his political career was marred by late-arriving votes that changed the outcome of the race. See generally R. Caro, The Years of Lyndon Johnson: Means of Ascent (1990). In 1948, Johnson eked out a razor-thin victory over his primary opponent in a runoff, all but guaranteeing that he would win the general election in Texas. Johnson’s victory was made possible through the election-flipping addition of 202 votes to the tally several days after polls had closed. Two hundred of those late-arriving votes were cast for Johnson, who won the race by just 87 votes. In the decades since, weighty evidence has come to light casting serious doubt on those votes’ legitimacy. Id., at xxxi, 316–317, 328–329, 375–402. Although a complete account of what occurred in that election has been lost to history, the incident illustrates the real risks that today’s decision entails.Another county controlled by Parr was Jim Wells, where a reform party formed by returning Second World War veterans had forced him to exercise discretion on Election Day. The only precinct in that county that had been run as the Duke liked precincts run was Precinct 13, where the election judge was Luis (Indio) Salas, a burly deputy sheriff fiercely loyal to the Duke. The Precinct 13 vote reported by Salas on Election Night, 765 to 60 in Johnson’s favor, had provided the bulk of Johnson’s 1,788-to-769 lead in Jim Wells. Now, on Friday morning, the Democratic Executive Committee of Jim Wells County was meeting to make its final certification of the returns and report them to the state committee. In the county courthouse, one of the committee members, E. M. Brownlee, was unfolding the “tally sheets” and reading off the totals. The totals for the first twelve precincts were the same as those which had been reported on Election Night. Then Brownlee unfolded the tally sheet for Precinct 13. This total was not the same. The figure for Johnson, which had been reported as 765 on Election Night, was now 965—because since Election Night, according to testimony given later, someone had added a loop to the “7” to change it into a “9.” Johnson had two hundred more votes.But the point is not nearly so significant as Johnson’s partisans have made it appear. Although there is still a dispute over whether Johnson asked in person for the final, decisive two hundred votes to be added to his total, there can no longer, thanks to the confirmation, in Salas’ manuscript and interviews, of the sworn testimony of others, be any reasonable doubt that two hundred votes were added to that total—six days after the election. Cliff DuBose had testified that Salas originally gave the total as seven hundred and sixty-five, and Price had also testified that the total given was seven hundred and sixty-five. The only doubt about that fact had been cast by Salas’ denial when he testified. And now Salas was admitting that he had lied: “I told Cliff 765.” The two hundred votes that “changed history” are, in fact, once one retreats from the headlines, significant only because of their decisive timing. Thanks to Salas, there is no longer any doubt that in his Box 13 alone far more than two hundred votes were stolen for Lyndon Johnson. A reform poll watcher, Jimmy Holmgreen, had previously said so: “I saw dozens of votes that were for Stevenson counted for Johnson.” Ike Poole had previously said so. And now Salas was saying so: “If they were not for Johnson, I make them for Johnson.”
Steve Vladeck@stevevladeck.bsky.social · 2mo ago

First (but *not* last) ruling from #SCOTUS today is in Watson v. RNC. For a 5-4 majority (with Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch, Kavanaugh dissenting), Justice Barrett holds that federal law does *not* bar states from counting late-arriving mail-in ballots that are postmarked on or before Election Day.

t a l@talevy.soccer · 3mo ago

Ahead of election day tomorrow*, I built an analysis of Los Angeles' political demography based on past voting patterns and projected neighborhood-by-neighborhood across the five main mayoral candidates three-las.talevy.soccer *(of course, results won't be clear until several days after)

The Three Los Angeleses — the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral race in three cities

A map of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary through its political geographies: Conservative LA, Liberal LA, and Left LA.

three-las.talevy.soccer