Attention: new original data source unlocked! Based on federal budget reports, I estimated the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, both mobilized and contract soldiers. The numbers are based on different salary top-ups that Russian troops in Ukraine receive. janiskluge.substack.com/p/the-compos...
András Tóth-Czifra
@minczifra.bsky.social
Political & security analyst. 🇪🇺🇭🇺🇺🇸. FPRI Eurasia fellow, Delphi GRC fellow. Bear Market Brief contributor. Ex-CEPA, ESI. Posts about 🇷🇺, 🇪🇺, illiberalism & its limits. My own views. Здесь вам не Toth. www.noyardstick.com minczifra.substack.com
This isn't even the point but I am baffled by how someone at this company could think "You know who will be able to sell our massively controversial project to infuriated locals? A universally hated figure like Eric Adams." Or maybe this was a ChatGPT suggestion. hellgatenyc.com/eric-adams-i...
Eric Adams Is Selling Data Centers in Wisconsin Now
The former mayor had a wild weekend, and other links to start your day.
hellgatenyc.com
🤔 Gasoline prices in Russia's Krasnoyarsk region dropped 20–40 rubles a liter just before Putin visited today. The same happened in Irkutsk when Putin toured an aviation plant on July 24 — fuel at local Kraisneft stations fell about 12 rubles a liter. t.me/novaya_pishe...
Новая газета
Литр бензина в Красноярском крае временно подешевел на 20-40 рублей к визиту Путина Топливо на заправках Красноярского края значительно подешевело, сообщают местные СМИ. Издание NGS24 обратило вниман...
t.me
Start the weekend with the last @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social before our usual summer break! Read about the implications of Ukraine's attacks on Wildberries, the authorities' case against Durov, the dismissal of Udmurtia's governor and more! open.substack.com/pub/bearmark...
Wildberry blast
Ukraine continues to strike Wildberries warehouses
open.substack.com
I can't stress enough that there is no direct proof but given that the Trump administration has repeatedly openly admitted having plans to meddle in European politics to help illiberal parties, I don't think we can rule out the possibility that the US had something to do with the Ceuta incident.
Another draconian verdict against deputy governors in a border region: two deputy governors of Belgorod were given sentences of 19 and 20 years for corruption surrounding the construction of the region's defensive fortifications. Governor Gladkov resigned earlier this year t.me/Govorit_NeMo...
Говорит НеМосква
Экс-заместителей губернатора Белгородской области осудили на 20 и 19 лет по делу о «зубах дракона» Суд в Москве назначил Рустэму Зайнуллину и Владимиру Базарову сроки в 20 и 19 лет соответственно. И...
t.me
Quite unusual timing and not easy to explain. Such dismissals usually happen in April/May or the fall. Brechalov was not a particularly unsuccessful governor, but those criteria have been eroded over the past years. His replacement is a local official, which Putin emphasized. Perhaps that's a clue.
The president appointed Udmurtia native and former agricultural official Olga Abramova as acting governor until regional elections can be held.
Regional and municipal budget planning and execution documents, reports and hearings are a treasure trove of information, essential to understand the policy pillars of the regime - if you have the patience to go through them. And @jakluge.de definitely does.
I analyzed dozens of reports from Russian municipalities and found a lot of fascinating insights about how Russian recruitment actually works. At the core, the recruitment machine is a multilayered system of quotas, going all the way from the Kremlin down to the smallest village.
I hope we all agree that this is the best available design.
How ÖBB has a better reputation than Deutsche Bahn is beyond me. It's every bit as egregious, if not more.
Many Russians are frustrated with the war and the economy. Will this help the candidates trying to challenge the political status quo in this September's elections? Read more in the latest Regions Calling newsletter.
Regions Calling: Russia’s Independent Candidates Face Their Toughest Election Yet - The Moscow Times
Hello and welcome to Regions Calling, your guide to developments from beyond the Russian capital by The Moscow Times.
themoscowtimes.com
Not to victim-blame here, but this is one of the reasons why that interview didn't need to be made in the first place. Musk has nothing interesting to say, he already has a huge platform to speak nonsense, and everyone knew that he was going to behave like a nine-year-old.
Elon Musk, owner of X, has called the editor of the Economist "a traitor to the West, plain and simple" after her recent interview with him. He now argues that "anyone who opposes remigration is a traitor" Musk has been socialising violence since Aug25: "fight or die, that's what it comes down to"
Absolutely horrible. An attack on normalcy, on freedom, on people like me and like you. My heart goes out to everyone in my former home city. The response must be prompt & clear and whatever ideology or movement motivated the perpetrator must be crushed and eradicated. www.bbc.com/news/live/c3...
Police name suspect after car driven into Berlin Pride event, killing one and injuring 16
Police are searching for a man named Abdul B. and say several people were reportedly stabbed in the incident.
bbc.com
Crimeans who prepaid for gasoline with vouchers & fuel cards can no longer use them, & many can't get their money back. One chain no longer honoring vouchers cites a consumer law allowing returns only w/in 14 days. Despite orders from Putin, Moscow hasn't been able to resolve Crimea's fuel crisis.
Важные истории
Крымчане не могут получить уже оплаченный бензин. АЗС перестали принимать талоны и топливные карты, а вернуть деньги за них удается не всем 🔵 Жители Крыма и Севастополя, заранее оплатившие бензин по ...
t.me
Start your weekend with @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social ! This week you can read about the significance of drone attacks on Wildberries warehouses, Russia-Belarus ties, the domestic fuel market and more! Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week! open.substack.com/pub/bearmark...
Fruitful attacks
Ukraine targets Wildberries warehouses with a new wave of drone strikes
open.substack.com
I'm back at one of my favorite European cities and a regular scene from a former life for a couple of days and really enjoyed the moment when, returning to France from Germany on my early morning run, a magnificent white stork greeted me on the border.
My new report for Delphi GRC on cost-shifting in Russia towards regional governments and employers in the ongoing challenge of veteran reintegration. delphigrc.org/research/the...
Delphi Global Research Center | Expert Think Tank on Eurasian Security
Leading independent think tank specializing in Eurasian security, Russia-China relations, NATO strategy, and regional dynamics. Expert research, analysis, and policy briefs.
delphigrc.org
A more detailed look at Russian gas stations: The situation seems to be improving, and partially as a result of that (and the availability of alternative gasoline apps) the data quality has deteriorated a bit. First the chart that shows the situation the best (in my view).
OK but are these Italian ristrettos or the brown sludge that most American diners insist on calling coffee?
There is good news for coffee drinkers: Up to five cups of the brew a day are safe for most adults and may even have benefits for heart health, according to a new scientific statement by the American Heart Association. ☕️ wsj.visitlink.me/zhwvmO
Update: Polgár declined the candidacy, adding that she did not have enough strength to assume responsibility of uniting a divided nation.
OK I did not see this coming, but it makes perfect sense in the context of the ongoing series of politics as "Absolute Cinema": Péter Magyar supports chess grandmaster Judit Polgár for head of state. www.facebook.com/story.php?st...
Oh my god, what even was this boring, lengthy, kitschy, tacky, low-quality nightmare? (But also: it's FIFA in Trump's America - why is anyone surprised?)
OK I did not see this coming, but it makes perfect sense in the context of the ongoing series of politics as "Absolute Cinema": Péter Magyar supports chess grandmaster Judit Polgár for head of state. www.facebook.com/story.php?st...
facebook.com
In his latest economic weekly, @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social shows how Russia’s top bureaucrats are feeding Putin overly optimistic success stories while shielding him from reality. No wonder Putin believes Russia can sustain the war. ridl.io/compared-to-...
Compared to what? – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (July 13 — 17)
ridl.io
The existence of Lamine Yamal suggests the existence of Lamine Taymyr.
Great data by Mediazona showing the share of gas stations actually selling gasoline in recent days.
My new report for Delphi GRC on cost-shifting in Russia towards regional governments and employers in the ongoing challenge of veteran reintegration. delphigrc.org/research/the...
Delphi Global Research Center | Expert Think Tank on Eurasian Security
Leading independent think tank specializing in Eurasian security, Russia-China relations, NATO strategy, and regional dynamics. Expert research, analysis, and policy briefs.
delphigrc.org
Orbán goes to the US, his foreign minister takes the Schröder path to Beijing. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Hungary’s Ex-Foreign Minister Szijjarto Joins China’s BYD
Former Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto resigned from parliament to join Chinese electric-vehicle maker BYD Co., which is currently building its first European car plant in the country’s sou...
bloomberg.com
My favorite contemporary Hungarian short story author is getting translated into English, by none other than Krasznahorkai's English translator. If you're a non-Hungarian friend of mine, I'll pester you until to buy it. seagullbooks.org/products/mom... cc @johnraimo.bsky.social
Moments from the Life of a Hedgehog by Edina Szvoren
Forthcoming in October 2026 Available for the first time in English, Hungarian writer Edina Szvoren’s short story collection gives voice to lives shaped by repression, cruelty, and silence. Moments fr...
seagullbooks.org
An administration of crooks and thieves is going to pursue predictable goals www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
Marco Rubio launches campaign to dismantle international criminal court
Trump’s secretary of state claims the global tribunal is interfering with US military and law enforcement operations
theguardian.com
Prominent civil society actors in Kabardino-Balkaria and members of the Circassian diaspora believe the changes would further erode the republic’s autonomy and set the region on a sure path to demise.
In the North Caucasus, a Constitutional Reform Reopens Centuries-Old Wounds - The Moscow Times
Tensions between the authorities and civil society are rising in Russia’s North Caucasus republic of Kabardino-Balkaria after the regional parliament agreed last month to consider amendments to the re...
themoscowtimes.com