25 years ago, a paper by Ariel Pakes changed how we measure inflation. Now he is at it again, thinking about an approach to the CPI that honors America's social commitments. The @harvard.edu economist previews that, and covers much more in our new interview. https://bit.ly/47kCtBS #EconSky

Labor Market Power with Worker and Firm Heterogeneity A staff report by David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff, Jaehun Jeong, and Simon Mongey is now available on our website. https://bit.ly/4dEwdIO

Thanks to Cuc W. for this week's employee photo submission for Views from the Ninth, taken at the headwaters of the Mississippi at Itasca State Park. #Minnesota

The @oiginstitute.bsky.social annual research conference is Oct. 8! Register now for the livestream to engage with a broad scholarly exchange of ideas around presented papers. Agenda, paper summaries, and registration here: https://bit.ly/3SRGASn

Our new HPOP housing metric tells us how many adults own their homes—something the most commonly used homeownership measure fails to track. On 9/28, join us for a brief webinar on why the HPOP matters and what it reveals about trends in homeownership. https://bit.ly/4cBrual

NEW: Our convo w/ Ariel Pakes, @harvard.edu economist & the “P” in game-changing BLP Berry–Levinsohn–Pakes model for demand estimation. Over 50 years Pakes shaped industrial organization econ. He's still working to decipher the markets that shape our lives. https://bit.ly/47kCtBS #EconSky

The unemployment rate is one way to assess maximum employment, but by the time we see it start to go up, it may be too late to do much. @amandamichaud.bsky.social describes the data she looks at to predict where the labor market is headed. https://bit.ly/46Cmlvg

What did Ninth District businesses have to say about recent changes to trade policy? Haley Chinander answers this audience question in our recent Regional Economics webinar. You can find the full event recording here: https://bit.ly/4bBwr2B #EconSky

Regional Economic Conditions: Tourism and Hospitality 10/14, 9-9:30am CT We've partnered with @hospitalitymn.bsky.social on a Sept survey of MN’s tourism and hospitality businesses. Join us for a free webinar that will cover survey results. Register here: https://bit.ly/4ripCJR

Quantifying Market Power and Business Dynamism in the Macroeconomy A new staff report by Jan De Loecker, Jan Eeckhout, and Simon Mongey is now available on our website. https://bit.ly/4AuAwAi

Our new HPOP housing metric tells us how many adults own their homes—something the most commonly used homeownership measure fails to track. On 9/28, join us for a brief webinar on why the HPOP matters and what it reveals about trends in homeownership. https://bit.ly/4cBrual

It started with a fortuitously "borrowed" book by Walter Heller...📖In our QR: Spanish micro theorist Andreu Mas-Colell humorously recounts his inspiration to study at the U of M in 1968, adjusting to MN life, and early influences on his legendary career. https://bit.ly/4gtUm6R

Congratulations to Kirsten Simon who has been appointed vice president in Risk and Compliance! She will lead the team responsible for the Federal Reserve System's data privacy program. Learn more about Kirsten and her new role here: https://bit.ly/3ThYPRi

At start of 2026 the most-tariffed goods didn't seem to be driving inflation. No longer: @neilmehrotra.bsky.social & Mike Waugh revisit their method and estimate tariffs as of July add up to 0.4 pp of elevated core inflation, similar to demand for AI technology. https://bit.ly/4gW8ZzP #EconSky

Labor market indicators in 2026 remain steady despite recent shocks, @amandamichaud.bsky.social explains. Her research identifies new metrics that can capture key dynamics in employment and labor market trends. https://bit.ly/46Cmlvg

President Kashkari appeared on Fox's Sunday Morning Futures yesterday to discuss the FOMC's recent decision to increase interest rates. Watch the full interview here: https://fxn.ws/4jghabO

Federal Reserve hikes interest rates amid inflation concerns | Fox News Video

Minneapolis Fed President and CEO Neel Kashkari joins 'Sunday Morning Futures' to discuss the Federal Reserve raising key interest rates, why stubborn inflation persists and analyzes the strength of t...

foxnews.com

AI adoption is growing, but many businesses and organizations are still getting their feet wet. Training programs and updated college courses are stepping in to prepare workers so they’re ready for the AI‑powered job market. Read more from @tuuyentran.bsky.social 's. https://bit.ly/4i56vAt

Conversations with the Fed: Decoding Today's Confounding Labor Market October 1, 11-11:45am CT @amandamichaud.bsky.social and Simon Mongey take on your questions in our latest live conversation hosted by @jeffhorwich.bsky.social. For event details and to register: https://bit.ly/4Afzrwd #EconSky

Thanks to Karen B. for this week's Views from the Ninth employee photo—the famous Budweiser Clydesdales in front of our branch in Helena, #Montana! The horses were walking down Last Chance Gulch. Last Chance Gulch is the name given to the main thoroughfare where gold was first discovered in 1864.

Big issue for estimating aggregate effects of transfers/stimulus: Not only does marginal propensity to consume differ by household; a household's MPC can plummet *because* of the transfer. Get briefed on latest from Greg Kaplan and our Javier Bianchi https://bit.ly/4ycIlbM

In our new QR, James Schmitz, Jr. reviews decades of work to change how economists & policymakers define "monopoly." Look past the flawed textbook definition of a one-firm market, he says. Monopolies of all shapes can be spotted by their harmful actions. https://bit.ly/3UybShE

Regional Economic Conditions: Tourism and Hospitality 10/14, 9-9:30am CT We've partnered with @hospitalitymn.bsky.social on a Sept survey of MN’s tourism and hospitality businesses. Join us for a free webinar that will cover survey results. Register here: https://bit.ly/4ripCJR

How is #AI affecting (or not affecting) Ninth District businesses? Haley Chinander and Ron Wirtz discuss survey findings in our recent Regional Economic Conditions webinar. View the full video here: https://bit.ly/4bBwr2B

How much are tariffs passing through to consumer prices and driving inflation? @neilmehrotra.bsky.social & Mike Waugh update their analysis from earlier this year and get a different result: The pass-through is here. https://bit.ly/4gW8ZzP

Maximum employment is complex and changes over time. Even the concept of "employment" can be tricky to pin down, @amandamichaud.bsky.social explains in new Q&A. She discusses what various labor market indicators suggest about the state of the labor market https://bit.ly/46Cmlvg

The Small Business Credit Survey is now open. We are seeking feedback from small biz owners to help provide insights to policymakers, service providers, and lenders. Your experience can shape policy. https://bit.ly/3SgS9SY

Conversations with the Fed: Decoding Today's Confounding Labor Market October 1, 11-11:45am CT @amandamichaud.bsky.social and Simon Mongey take on your questions in our latest live conversation hosted by @jeffhorwich.bsky.social. For event details and to register: https://bit.ly/4Afzrwd #EconSky

AI can solve some pretty tough problems. But can it overcome the brutal reality of supply and demand? @jeffhorwich.bsky.social wraps up the latest producer price data in this episode of The Basket. (For his deeper look at AI and the economy ➡️ https://bit.ly/4fDFCSy)

WATCH LIVE TODAY: Press conference with #FOMC Chairman Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET: www.federalreserve.gov www.youtube.com/federalreserve

Federal Reserve issues #FOMC statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to raise the target range for the

federalreserve.gov