It's a war crimes fiesta. In the meantime, I hope that you and yours stay safe.

Iran’s defenders won’t explain why targeting my campus & students at NYU in the UAE—or my colleagues & their students in Qatar, Israel, or anywhere—would be morally or legally justifiable IRGC “retaliation” for despicable, criminal 🇺🇸🇮🇱 attacks on Iran’s unis. Multiple wrongs do not make right. 1/3

Iran’s gaslighting about its attacks on civilian infrastructure in the Gulf throws maddening salt in the wound for ppl living there. Giving civilians’ all too real trauma the Pallywood treatment likewise fuels hate, going even farther in its maddening denialism. This is Israel’s Persian account ⬇️

Dear Leader gets a curated feel-good video montage, fiddling while Rome burns. This, in a nutshell, is why authoritarian personalities who struggle with self-criticism should be kept as far as possible from the reins of power.

Wishing everyone as good an Eid/Bayram as possible in these difficult days. This was not the Ramadan that almost anyone in the MENA region wanted. Hoping with everything I’ve got that not another drone, missile, or bomb punctures anyone’s peace. May next year be brighter.

This is horrifically unpopular with Americans—even Republicans, who overwhelmingly approve only limited special ops strikes, not thousands of troops deployed on the ground in Iran, as we appear to be gearing up for now. What a nightmare for these young troops & their families.

There’s no hope of finding a Delcy Rodriguez in Iran w/ Israel empowered to guide this file. That’s one of my takeaways from Raz’s excellent explanation of the Israeli government’s point of view. Trump hoped for a Venezuela ending. But Israel is copying its Hezbollah playbook.

Accurate. And likely to erode more credibility than it restores. PR needs to feel authentic & believable. If people feel like the truth is being hidden, they’ll feel manipulated & tune out. Hence why this approach is driving more critical journalism as the PR becomes the story.

Reposting this 🧵 from X, which—despite its enshitification by Elon—is still the best social media hub for quality Iran War analysis. Some of the scholars & analysts whom I’ve recommended here (see the final post here for those recommendations) are on this platform. But most aren’t/post there more.

Last week a former diplomat in DC confided his fears for NE Asian security since 🇺🇸 redeployed THAAD air defense from South Korea to the Gulf theatre. South Koreans objected that they’re too essential to be moved. Kim Jong Un just proved them right. Another window into how poorly we planned this.

AFP News Agency@en.afp.com · 5mo ago

🇰🇵 North Korea fired about 10 ballistic missiles toward the sea of Japan on Saturday, Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said, days after Pyongyang warned of "terrible consequences" over ongoing South Korea-US military drills. ➡️ u.afp.com/SLfU

You cannot make this stuff up. DC finally fulfilled John Bolton’s wet dream by launching a neocon regime change war in Iran. A dream that launched decades worth of op-eds by him. But less than 3 weeks in, Bolton’s got cold feet. If you don’t realise that this war is a disaster yet, you should.

This war is a strategic disaster for 🇺🇸 & will likely worsen any way you slice it. Americans should consider protesting this in greater numbers than they did Iraq at this point. They’ll be economically punished faster for a war that was planned with a fraction of the thought.

Brilliant piece by Nadwa Dawsari on a question we’ve all been wondering: Why are the Houthis, so far, sitting this out? She argues the Houthis are Iran’s pinch hitter, strategically positioned to rescue the Islamic Regime in a bind. Expect their deployment if & when Tehran truly gets desperate.

Iran’s insurance policy: Why the Houthis have stayed out of the fight - Middle East Institute

mei.edu

Iran hit Oman again. It has no US base & exhausted itself trying to negotiate a way to avoid this war. All Iran’s Oman hits targeted civilian infrastructure. On March 1 & 3 its drones targeted oil storage & workers’ housing. Reuters reports it just hit oil storage at Salalah.

This is right. The conversations I’m having with lower waged workers in Dubai, in particular, strongly echo the early COVID lockdown period when many were terrified—and rightly so, given the widespread layoffs—that reduced footfall & business closures would make them return home.

Dubai’s cortisol-fuelled rat race overrides concern at Iran attacks

Residents have taken to social media to scorn news reports of the UAE as a war-torn country and to scoff at those quick to abandon the city

thetimes.com

Intelligent teenagers in my classrooms do a better job strategising through war scenarios like this when presented with their basic parameters. The Trump administration is projecting hubristic confidence without bog-standard competence in a gravely serious war.

First day in Dubai where I haven’t received an aerial attack alarm on my phone. Enjoying the quiet, save for sound of what were likely fighter jets on patrol. It’s a welcome reprieve after Sat. evening, when a skyscraper in Dubai Marina where two couples I know reside got hit.

I try to check my Iraq War Syndrome as a Millennial whose worldview was shaped by that conflict. But here’s one parallel: Many Iraqis, like Iranians, were initially enthused about intervention to topple their hated regime, but turned against it when civilian sites were attacked.

I myself said that until February 28. For the first time here, though, I’ve felt like it’s somewhat… ensouled. A sense of community & rooting for each other that I never felt in Dubai before. Maybe we’re trauma bonding. Or maybe places & people get ensouled through pain.

Fuel prices are about to go vertical. The cost of transporting yourself, your food & anything else you buy, is about to spike worldwide. There’s a near-50% chance US gas prices rise to $5 USD by the end of the month. Yet Trump won in 2024 largely bc he promised lower inflation.

Taking Gulf states hostage as whipping boys in a war of attrition is a stupid strategy for Iran. The aggressors (🇺🇸🇮🇱) have proven they do not prioritise Gulf interests or security. And they will spin Iran’s efforts to take the global economy hostage as escalatory imperatives.

The USA’s actions tonight in Iran just put the whole Arab Gulf at greater risk. Instead of targeting IRGC military installations and leaders, 🇺🇸 destroyed energy infrastructure & a water desalination plant. The total opposite of winning friends & influencing people.

4 deaths in the UAE now. Many more injuries. Nearly every victim is from the Middle East, South Asia or Africa. Yet media coverage—esp British coverage—of Dubai continues to focus on “influencers” & wealthy Westerners, reproducing the very racism & classism it claims to oppose.

Regime change is clearly our aspiration, though not one we’re necessarily likely to execute. Trump hopes this ⬇️ paves the path for regime opponents to take back Iran. Instead, he may be creating conditions for civil war, fragmentation or a less capable version of this regime. 1/8 🧵

Many speculated that last night’s limited flights into & from the UAE on Emirates & Etihad were reckless. These airlines are best in class & obsessed w/ safety, so my hunch is no. But the real story needs to be told. Could Iran have made a limited agreement not to target commercial aircraft?

“This is an illegal 🇺🇸 & 🇮🇱 war,” Kuwaiti scholar Bader Al-Saif said on Al Jazeera just now. “The Iranians are following a scorched earth strategy trying to bring everyone down w/ them. But this is not our war.” Iran’s bombing of Gulf states, he stressed, is “illegal on all counts” 1/2

GCC states have been demonstrating the patience of Job to Iran these past 4 days. In an illegal 🇺🇸🇮🇱 war they all opposed, these Muslim-majority countries—not Israel—have become Iran’s chief victims during Ramadan no less. The GCC is bulking up defense but exercising restraint.

Trump just finished a press conference in the White House. Here is a 6 tweet 🧵 of my notes on the key takeaways. Trump took full ownership of the Iran war, claiming that he made Israel attack Iran first when Iran failed to attack Israel, amongst other wild moments. ⬇️

Monica Marks@monicamarks.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Trump live right now in the White House press conference: “If anything I might have forced Israel’s hand [to make it attack Iran first].” Yes, Israel’s right aggressively lobbied the US for years to attack Iran. But the Trump admin bought into this idea & Trump just took full ownership of it.

Trump live right now in the White House press conference: “If anything I might have forced Israel’s hand [to make it attack Iran first].” Yes, Israel’s right aggressively lobbied the US for years to attack Iran. But the Trump admin bought into this idea & Trump just took full ownership of it.

The Trump admin gave Elon the reins last year. He gutted State, shut the US Institute for Peace & defunded our foreign policy ecosystem. Last night, DC told roughly as many Americans living in the MidEast as living in Vermont to “depart now.” But it’s giving no help to evacuate.