Your "MLCAPE fix" for the day. - most of energy in EONT- so risk of showers/odd storm there. There is some in extreme SWONT as well. Gotta run. Have a great day! #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post:None #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post:None #onwx #onstorm

Overnight models continue to show a disturbance moving into SONT 4 the weekend bringing unsettled weather with scattered shower/storms. Parts of EONT will experience unsettled (showers/storms) weather today as a mid-level disturbance dives SE-ward. #onwx #onstorm

Will be busy with this event👇 -so will post if/when I get the opportunity. - "Fair winds and following seas" (it's a traditional nautical blessing) -catch you on the flip side, have a good evening.

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC alerts at post:None #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC alerts at post:None #onwx #onstorm

Your daily ML"CAPE" fix for SONT, some very local higher CAPE may bring the risk of a few widely scattered pop-up instability showers, maybe the old rumble of thunder, especially in S. NE/EONT. #onwx #onstorm Have a great day!

Just some post system daytime heating instability, a mix of sun and cloud, some widely scattered pop up showers, short lived, no big whoop. #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: shorturl.at/JlOgW #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post:None #onwx #onstorm

The last 24 hrs. of rainfall totals -big picture, down to SONT. Just pick some local maxima's (in inches) in SONT. The overall tracks of the storms (NW to SE) clearly evident. #onwx #onstorm

...some perspective...while SONT has a some active weather yesterday-the US Mid-West has been dealing with the constant barrage of MCS systems moving thru, this is only the last 48 hrs. this pattern has been going for 5+ days of heavy rains & a variety of severe weather--unreal.

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: shorturl.at/Hq88O #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm

Your daily "MLCAPE fix" for the day. Enough fuel out there to be realized into storms. (Colour scale on top) Stay weather aware, stay safe! #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post: shorturl.at/D5IC5 #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post:None #onwx #onstorm

Some of the latest model comparisons of rainfall potential (mm) from ~now till Thurs. 8AM. Very convectively active period, and they have similar "QPF foot print" some capture more detail ,so that's means higher local amounts in storms. #onwx #onstorm

With the latest hourly run of the HRRR, highlighted areas of concern for severe weather for this afternoon into the evening...although the risk will probably cover most of s. sections of SONT. Just be weather aware, and Stay safe. #onwx #onstorm

Latest SPC's SREF Severe weather guidance both the calibrated severe thunderstorm and Tornado ingredients for later this afternoon into the evening. Yes the Tornado risk is further south buy local lake boundaries, topo, etc.-are well known for their "shenanigans". #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post:None

...Last 48hrs of "Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Madness" in the US mid-west -"'tis the season"! Large organized complex of storms-they act as a "single unified weather system" (like the Borg-STNG) over 100+ km across, last for many hours & bring a plethora of severe weather. (Vis ver. attached)

Latest HRRR Integrated Smoke data (disbursed in the column) 8AM till midnight - and a few profiles of the smoke (in the column- attached to the post) Most stays aloft 8-10K/ft. Some surface creep/mixing-minor #onwx #onstorm

Your MLCAPE fix for the day. Most of the significant fuel/energy stays in S. sections of SWONT, so greater risk of seeing some pop-up showers storms. Rainfall remains local near the pop-ups. #onwx #onstorm

Latest Hourly run of the HRRR Radar 4cast-till midnight-still unsettled in spots.Daytime heating+local lake breezes +being close to that stalled out stationary front will possibly generate a few showers/storms-but most will see very little in any significant rains. #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post:None #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post:None #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: shorturl.at/m3WLu #onwx #onstorm